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  1. roadkill

    Conference Realignment

    I suspect that a primary reason that Clemson and FSU want to have their lawsuits decided by a friendly local venue is that the exit fee issue hinges on determining if it is a penalty, versus liquidated damages. The text says exit fee, but Clemson's suit quotes Jim Phillips saying it is a...
  2. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    Sort of. You could argue that the NCAA BB Tournament method, which pays conferences based on the number of games their teams play for each season's contest, would be fairer. This is because it pays based on current performance, rather than historical conference strength. Of course, if the...
  3. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    This won’t end the debate over what revenue distribution is fair, but being an engineer, I attempted to take another objective view of this by answering the following question: Based on their 2024 Conference members, what percentage would each conference have contributed to a 14-team playoff...
  4. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    That last sentence (responding to the auto-bye requests from the SEC/B1G): "Discussions pivoted after that proposed format led to a substantial outcry with fairness being immediately called into question." At least some are pushing back.
  5. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    The arguments against the 3-slot guarantees seem to assume it’s going to be cast in stone for the foreseeable future. In reality, nothing is getting codified for long. No playoff – about 100 years BCS – 14 years 4-team CFP – 9 years 12-team playoff – 2-3 years? See a trend here? It will...
  6. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    Perhaps for some, but this is not the argument I make. They don't need to be significantly better across the board to justify 3 slots each vs 2 for the ACC and B12. Just better at the top. Over the last several decades, this has been the case, at least for SEC. As I pointed out earlier in...
  7. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    No doubt the SEC has teams that are perennially overrated to start the season, and thus benefit from it in later rankings. An analysis done a few years ago, based on Week 1 vs. end-of-season rankings, showed that uga took the prize for the most overrated team. That said, the current "way too...
  8. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    While I don't disagree with your overall point about conference superiority. I think you are selling FSU's win over LSU short. LSU went 10-3, only losing SEC games to Bama and a close loss to Ole Miss. LSU was arguably the #3 team in the SEC. With a Heisman QB. FSU's 45-24 win was a statement.
  9. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    I think you're off by nearly a factor of ten. The actual difference per season is only about 0.12, which in my opinion is statistically insignificant. If anything, the data shows a bias toward the PAC, which is ironic.
  10. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    Here's a fantasy scenario to contemplate. It's 2014 again but there's a 12-team playoff. We lose a close and hard-fought ACC Championship to FSU. But our Orange Bowl is a playoff game. Wouldn't you want us to win it and advance? What if we ended up winning the next two and were crowned...
  11. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    Thanks, that's a good article. After reading this and realizing that appeasing the bullies never works in the long run, I'm starting to think that letting the SEC and B1G simply break off and form their own league might not be such a bad idea. Especially if they weren't allowed to play teams...
  12. roadkill

    Stats models and rankings

    Points scored and points allowed matter. But sometimes it’s useful to grade various components of a team. Offense or defense for example, or even down to the performance of individual players. How should you do that? In these cases, advanced stats can give you much more insight than simply using...
  13. roadkill

    Transfer Portal: Who do we need to target this offseason?

    That seems odd. Zeek remains listed on the roster, and the portal is currently closed. Unless he graduated early and is looking to be a grad transfer.
  14. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    I thought the same thing when I saw the reference to the 4-4 AQ model. Always start negotiating by asking for more than you expect to get, then "compromise" at a position that is still very favorable.
  15. roadkill

    Conference Realignment

    Agree that SEC bias starts in the preseason. I believe it often continues through the season as well (why stop with preseason, since an SEC loss is usually a "good" loss?). That was largely my point about the 2022 exception(s) - having non-SEC teams ranked in the top ten with 3 losses. This...
  16. roadkill

    Conference Realignment

    I'll concede Utah (#7 preseason), but K-State wasn't even ranked until week 6. Their top-ten finish was earned on the field.
  17. roadkill

    Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

    I like this idea, and it makes sense from a fairness and competition standpoint. But agree with @Root4GT that it will never fly.
  18. roadkill

    Conference Realignment

    Yeah, last year LSU (9-3) would have squeaked in at #13. Similarly, in 2022, FSU (9-3) would have gotten in. But FSU would have gotten an auto-bid anyway. Interestingly, that year there were a couple of non-SEC teams (Utah and K-State) that had 3 losses, yet were ranked in the top 10. Kind...
  19. roadkill

    Conference Realignment

    This is a valid point that I did not fully consider. There are a lot of variables. The potential scenario for ND to miss out would be to rank 11th - 14th, and then have two SEC or B1G (and/or ACC or B12) teams in that same range that auto-qualified. I don't know the likelihood of that...
  20. roadkill

    Conference Realignment

    In 2019 ND was ranked 15th going into bowl season. So they would not have qualified for a playoff spot based on rank. However, they would have still ranked second in the ACC, so would have gotten the second auto-bid spot had they been in the conference, whereas without the conference...
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