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Syracuse would be about a 5 1/2 point favorite on a neutral field today. I checked Sagarin (lame, but the math is easy). It has us as a 4 point favorite over BC—about 6 1/2 to 7 at home. I haven’t seen a betting line yet.

Some people have hairlines or haircuts that are improved by a ball cap. I best not name them. But, I understand hats indoors.

Bye has an unconventional defense. No one has seen anything like it. They haven’t lost this season, and they’ve shut out all their opponents.

I’m not sure how big a talent tier is. Miami should be way ahead of us, and BG should have been way behind us. FSU should have been way ahead of BC. Boston College is way ahead of Bowling Green in almost any stat.

I agree. Forecasting by the stats, we should have crushed BG. We got whipped. They pushed us around. We also got stomped by Ole Miss. Our resume is inconsistent this year.

Yeah...the rushing game is not a good matchup for us, unless the team that played in Miami shows up. BC Rushing Offense GT Rushing Defense Plays 243 169 Plays/Game 41 #12 42 #131 Total EPA 38.77 #9 3.23 #82 EPA/Play 0.16 #13 0.02 #81 EPA/Game 6.46 #10 0.81 #83 Success Rate...

The defensive data is also from Game On Paper: https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/year/2023/team/103. They're only on the field an average number of plays. As for the rest, it's abysmal. Defensive Plays 355 Plays/Game 59 #17 Total EPA 48.74 #118 EPA/Play 0.14 #120 EPA/Game 8.12 #118...

So, here's BC's quarterback: Thomas Castellanos 0.07 EPA/Play, 54% Comp%, 1143 yds, 8 TD, 1.55 DETMER Who is BC's rushing leader? It's this guy, who weirdly has the same name as the QB: Thomas Castellanos 0.31 EPA/Play, 89 Car, 558 yds, 6 TD This data is from Game On Paper...

Here's the overall for the conference, including the "new guys" but not Notre Dame Rk Team Rec FBS FEI Column1 OFEI Rk_1 DFEI Rk_2 10 Florida State 5-0 5-0 .75 ACC .94 12 .58 29 17 North Carolina 5-0 5-0 .60 ACC 1.13 9 .19 57 21 Clemson 4-2 3-2 .56 ACC .19 34 1.29 2 24 Duke 4-1 3-1 .53...

We're in week 6. At this point, almost all of the bias should be out of the stats models--if not now, in a week or two. FEI does not "like" us. It doesn't like Deion's team, either. After Miami, our defense has risen to "below average" or "bottom quartile of the P5". Our offense fell to...

You gotta find a way to be a huge underdog multiple times to make that happen.

A write up on “what we learned” about every ACC team last week: https://saturdayroad.com/acc/acc-football-what-we-learned-week6-2023/ It was complimentary about us, but hedged that they still aren’t sure if we’re more like the team that beat Miami or the team that lost to Bowling Green. About...

Mario Cristóbal takes ownership for the call https://theathletic.com/4946642/2023/10/09/mario-cristobal-miami-coordinators-georgia-tech/?source=user_shared_article Two days after making the call, but he now willingly owns it

I think I’d have to do this with calendars to figure out how this plays out

The interception were smart plays. One was a dumb play by Van Dyke, but even then it was smart defense I saw some passes affected by the rain, but I think Miami’s team speed was a bigger factor. Unless the BC game is terrible, I think our improved play was the bigger factor on our side. On...

Miami’s offensive numbers that matter are top-25; even after Saturday. They’re #17 in points per drive. Texas A&M is the only ranked team Miami has played, but they scored 38, then 48, then 48 again, then 38, and then—against us—20. Great defensive performance.

It’s possible there was a conflict at Pacific—they dated briefly in 2020, but I haven’t seen that she was a vendor for them at the time. The previous dating was before she had her non-profit

I want one or two ACC teams in the CFP, and I want us to win out. I’d like as many top 25 teams as the conference can get after those two things happen. I’d like Miami to tenderize Clemson and UNC for us—whatever can help us win

This weekend: Syracuse at FSU Wake at VT Louisville at Pitt Miami at UNC NCST at Duke Miami plays UNC this week, then hosts Clemson next week. We will see if Miami rights their ship

If we play again like we did last Saturday, we deserve to win. That’s the level of play we need every week.