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I don't see that anywhere else. That account hasn't posted a ton of inside info before, but not many false positives either. Who knows? I'll conservatively have my doubts until I see some confirmation

Right now, I’ll say VT 38-GT 31. If we fixed our tackling, we win, but last week looked rough. You may boo this prediction

Just came to share the same info

Since we had this conversation Seven teams doing great at explosive plays and keeping ahead of the chains. Six are in the top 25 and in the CFP discussion. And also Auburn, who is not. Auburn is miserable at scoring inside the 40 and at turnovers.

Unless King healed up a lot this week, or Philo was astonishing in practice this week, the smart bet is that Pyron starts on Saturday.

Possibly knocking Liberty out of the 12 team CFP

There are some examples at https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/success-rate-definition If you have first and 20, you need to pick up at least 10. If you have second and 12, you need to pick up 9 (8.4) yards. If you have first and then, and you get five yards on first down, three on second, one...

NCST QB Grayson McCall retires from football (concussions added up) https://247sports.com/college/north-carolina-state/article/grayson-mccall-retires-nc-state-football-coach-injury-wolfpack-concussion-coastal-carolina-2024-238525075/

As far as I know, there's only one stat that's 100% aligned with winning--point differential. If you score more than the other guy, you win all the time. The other stats are there to be predictive and explanatory. This chart is mostly for fun, and I think it probably got invented because the...

You’re missing the point

It looks like he calculates it differently. For him, it’s percentage of plays that you had an EPA > 0. Typically, you calculate it like this: A play is defined as successful if: It gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down 70% of yards to gain on second...

Those are the real “the game was closer than it looked; we could/should have won” cases. Those are the cases where the fans are justified in saying “we gave the game away”. Auburn shot themselves in the foot to lose their game. For the rest of them (like us), it was a “yeah, they really did...

I don’t think the coaches anticipated getting limited to 64 yards on the ground. Pyron (in his own) wasn’t why we lost. The two picks did hurt. I don’t think a healthy King would have had a different outcome. If there is something for the offensive coaches to look at, it’s How can we stop...

That one is success rate (1st or 2nd down making at least half the yardage to a first, or getting a first, or scoring; for 3rd or 4th down, getting a first or scoring). Basically, the per down rate that you stay ahead of the chains. He is subtracting GT’s rate from Notre Dame’s rate. If you’re...

Yeah, it was that solid of a loss:

They're from GameOnPaper.com. You can build them with one of the SportsDataVerse packages in Python or R.

My wife and I were in the crowd. It was the final UGA loss that did him in. That game didn’t help, though We need more games that look like this

It’s worth watching Key’s press conference in this week’s media thread. He’s good at it, and the context is clearer when you can see the Q&A.

It’ll take a little extra work. I could do it manually, or I could do some work in R or Python (R is pretty nice for just exploring data). https://cfbfastr.sportsdataverse.org/articles/intro.html has play-by-play data. Life got kinda busy, and I haven’t done my own number crunching as much...

On one hand, they’ve played a “forgiving” schedule. On the other hand, option teams have a habit of giving the big boys hell. The Army v Notre Dame game could be interesting. Or, it could be a bloodbath