Why punt? Ever.

[Randy Carson]

If I had a defense like Alabama or UGA, I might be punting on third down. The Presbyterian College coach Kevin Kelley, a high school coaching legend in Arkansas tried this last year with dismal results.
PC did not try a field goal but did try 48 onside kicks recovering 9 of them
They punted just 13 times in 11 games. Went for it 84 times on fourth down and were successful 34% of the time.
The Blue Hose threw 35 interceptions including 7 against Campbell in a 72-0 loss.
All those missed fourth downs and interceptions resulted in a lot of blowouts...for the other team. 35-70 against Valpariso and 14-56 against Stetson. They gave up about 53 points per game but at least the punter was well rested.

Sounds like Presbyterian had bigger problems than not punting.

 

[LongforDodd]

The Country's Most Radical Football Coach Explains Why You Should Never Punt

www.businessinsider.com

https://eml.berkeley.edu//~dromer/papers/JPE_April06.pdf

"This paper takes a first step toward testing the assumption that firms maximize profits by examining a specific strategic decision in professional sports: the choice in football between kicking and trying for a first down on fourth down."

This is from 2013, I think I read. I wonder how this is turning out for him 8 seasons later?

 

[bobongo]

This is from 2013, I think I read. I wonder how this is turning out for him 8 seasons later?

He went 216-29-1 in as a high school HC. Last year was his first year in college, going 2-9 at Presbyterian.

Kevin Kelley (American football) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[BuzzStone]

Sounds like Presbyterian had bigger problems than not punting.

He was attempting the second greatest transformation in college football.

 

[bke1984]

Stats normalize to the average. Problem is that some teams are below average and some above. If a below average team follows this philosophy they are going to end up on the losing end. In 2014 we could have played this way and probably done really well, but I’m not sure it would have turned any of those 3 losses into wins.

 

[FightWinDrink]

He was attempting the second greatest transformation in college football.

But he probably didn’t face 12 top 10 QBs

 

[bobongo]

Stats normalize to the average. Problem is that some teams are below average and some above. If a below average team follows this philosophy they are going to end up on the losing end. In 2014 we could have played this way and probably done really well, but I’m not sure it would have turned any of those 3 losses into wins.

But that's not really the question. The question is which option - punting or going for it - gives you a better chance to win.
If punting less helps a bad team go 3-9 instead of 2-10, then it's the right option.

My guess is Kelley would have won in high school and lost at Presbyterian doing things the conventional way, but did it help enhance his record?

 

[JacketFan137]

He went 216-29-1 in as a high school HC. Last year was his first year in college, going 2-9 at Presbyterian.

Kevin Kelley (American football) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

would also add just for the sake of conversation the three years prior to him coming they went:

2020/21: 4-3
2019: 2-10
2018: 2-8

not exactly like he derailed a powerhouse team. being so bad is probably why they just said f it let’s try something out

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Sounds like Presbyterian had bigger problems than not punting.

Punting an average of once a game made the problems even bigger. It is idiotic to do this on a regular basis.

Just because you never punt, it doesn't mean you don't kick field goals.

You're trying to gain yards or score TD's on first, second or third down. On fourth down, you're either going for yards or kicking a field goal. If you have a kicker who can consistently nail 50-yarders, then once your team gets to the opponent's 35 or so, you're taking three points on fourth down.

Between the 30's, not punting means you're counting on your defense to get stop (and maybe you give up a TD or field goal yourself). Inside your own 30, not punting on fourth down will have your own fans screaming at you...unless your fanbase has bought into your concept and understand WHY you do what you do.

Like running the TO, for example. <running and ducking>

Thank you for your insight but I would rather run the triple option, all things being equal.

 

[takethepoints]

I'd say it depends more on the yards to first, field position, and, perhaps most important, who will get the ball. Take Paul's decision in the Taxpayer to go for the 1st on our 25 yard line with fourth and (roughly) 1.5 yards to go. The yards to gain were negligible and Paul knew with virtually certainty that Dedrick Mills could get 1.5 yards anywhere, any time. If it had been, say, 4th and 6, then he would have punted.

In general, my feeling is that beyond mid-field in opponent territory you should go for it on 4th and 4 or less. The stats make that pretty much obvious (I think). That I can't point to specific studies (I couldn't find any on a quick search) on this shows just how far behind baseball football is in analytics. This should be something Tech, of all places, could improve.

 

[takethepoints]

But that's not really the question. The question is which option - punting or going for it - gives you a better chance to win.

Bingo. The way baseball analytics work is that you plan strategy to maximize wins. I seldom see this in football analysis. Instead, the emphasis seems to be on individual performance and, to a lesser extent, on down success. No doubt the two are related, but the number one fact in football is that if you don't hold the ball, you won't score points. Everything you do should be focused like a laser beam on keeping the ball, not giving it up. Defense does matter, but nowhere near as much as coaches - and fans - seem to think.

But this is just speculation by someone who doesn't pay professional attention to this. No doubt I'm behind the curve.

 

[bobongo]

I'd say it depends more on the yards to first, field position, and, perhaps most important, who will get the ball. Take Paul's decision in the Taxpayer to go for the 1st on our 25 yard line with fourth and (roughly) 1.5 yards to go. The yards to gain were negligible and Paul knew with virtually certainty that Dedrick Mills could get 1.5 yards anywhere, any time. If it had been, say, 4th and 6, then he would have punted.

In general, my feeling is that beyond mid-field in opponent territory you should go for it on 4th and 4 or less. The stats make that pretty much obvious (I think). That I can't point to specific studies (I couldn't find any on a quick search) on this shows just how far behind baseball football is in analytics. This should be something Tech, of all places, could improve.

The thing I've always hated is to see a coach punt anywhere on the field with a dog-tired defense late in a close game.
You have to try to hold onto the ball in that situation, come hell or high water.

 

[BurdellJacket]

If I had a defense like Alabama or UGA, I might be punting on third down. The Presbyterian College coach Kevin Kelley, a high school coaching legend in Arkansas tried this last year with dismal results.
PC did not try a field goal but did try 48 onside kicks recovering 9 of them
They punted just 13 times in 11 games. Went for it 84 times on fourth down and were successful 34% of the time.
The Blue Hose threw 35 interceptions including 7 against Campbell in a 72-0 loss.
All those missed fourth downs and interceptions resulted in a lot of blowouts...for the other team. 35-70 against Valpariso and 14-56 against Stetson. They gave up about 53 points per game but at least the punter was well rested.

Right. If you just have a very sorry team from top to bottom, offense and defense, it would not matter if you never punt or you always punt. You will be clobbered. If I could not to any better than converting on 34% of 4th down tries, I surely would punt without hesitation. Also, if you are giving up 35 interceptions regularly, it would be best to not put the ball in the air.

 

[bobongo]

Good article on Kelley and why coaches shouldn't punt:

Why a college football coach should adopt the no-punt, always-onside-kick philosophy

DALLAS — I thought Kevin Kelley would be more upset. He certainly seemed upset about 45 minutes earlier. At that moment, the coach who never punts had to

www.si.com

“I try to watch the game as a fan and not a coach, but even then it does drive me crazy,” Kelley says. “Especially when it’s a fourth-and-one or fourth-and-two, I know 100% of the time they ought to go for it. But who am I to question those guys? They have a plan, and they’re going to stick with it. I have a plan.”

 

[Techastrophe]

Punting isn't an interruption of the offense, it is a different form of offense, or a continuation of the offense by different means. Pushing the opposing offense as far back as possible -- by whatever means -- is second priority behind net scoring, offense points minus opposing defense points. I would say third priority is wearing out the defense to set up success on later drives. But they are not always in that order.

I believe some offenses use the three-and-out strategically to try and make opposing defenses dull and cold so they can break a big series on a later possession. I could be wrong but it appears to be part of the game.

I also believe there is a time and a place for every play your team can manage. Punting on fourth down isn't always smart. Rather than say "don't punt on fourth down" I would say "do what is smart on fourth down." Choosing the best play from a bag of options in real time is going to give the advantage of surprise at least. But it could be much more. I don't understand why many coaches treat special teams phases as an afterthought. Instead you could look at it like you have two, three, four offensive squads that you can swap in to get the max advantage. For example a 4th-and-long squad, a 4th-and-short squad, a FG/PAT squad, each of which specializes in a handful of plays that can be ran in each situation. You could convert the "below the line" non-redshirt athletes to specialists in one or two of these special offenses and have them actually contribute instead of walking off the field without any mud on their suit. You could run a special package on a critical short yardage or whatever, not just fourth down.

You can take a similar approach with defensive special teams. Many athletes on return teams will also be part of the regular offense or defense but you can also filter in guys who spent the whole week preparing for that handful of plays.

 

[neverquit]

without a good defense, odds are the opposition is scoring anyway.......

 

[1979jacket]

san fran punted a 4th and two on sunday past mid field and i thought they were nuts

 

[JacketFan137]

san fran punted a 4th and two on sunday past mid field and i thought they were nuts

shanahan had an absolute stinker in the second half. didn’t get deebo, by far their best offensive player, the ball the last 18 minutes of the game. punted it on the other side of the 50 and ran three of the worst plays i’ve ever seen in that 2 minute drill

he’s definitely a fraud with the game on the line

 

[Vespidae]

It's the off-season, so what the hey.

• If you never punt, you have four downs to get 10 yards.
• If you never punt, your play-calling changes.
• If you never punt, and you're deep in your own territory, your offense is highly motivated to convert that fourth down.
• If you never punt, you will convert a few fourth downs, score a few more points, and thereby off-set the extra points the other team scores when you turn the ball over in bad field position.

What? You want to continue arguing about locking threads?

Have fun.

Ask Lane Kiffin. He says research shows that you are better off going for it on fourth.
Why punt? Two reasons. First, at 7+ seconds, it’s the longest play in the game,statistically. So, if you are trying to burn the clock, punt.

Second, reduce the probability of a score. Each yard translates into an expected probability of a score. At your own 30, it’s 70% likely the opposing team will score. Tack on a 40 yard punt, and you’ve reduced the probability to 30%.

 

[JacketFan137]

Ask Lane Kiffin. He says research shows that you are better off going for it on fourth.
Why punt? Two reasons. First, at 7+ seconds, it’s the longest play in the game,statistically. So, if you are trying to burn the clock, punt.

Second, reduce the probability of a score. Each yard translates into an expected probability of a score. At your own 30, it’s 70% likely the opposing team will score. Tack on a 40 yard punt, and you’ve reduced the probability to 30%.

i think there’s also just so much nuance in regards to the flow of the game, the way your opponents offense is playing the way your defense is playing, the weather etc.

just like poker or any other gamble it’s more about being selectively aggressive vs just having some balls to the wall strategy.

although i wouldn’t complain if more coaches wanna be like the guy at presbyterian and just go for it every time