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This seems to come up in threads alot so I thought I would explain why it is extremely unlikely Pastner would be fired before year 5.
First, you have to think like an AD, not a fan. An AD's most important job is running the AA and managing its budget. Wins and losses are a part of that, but mainly the AD wants to make sure the budget isn't running in the red. So a big part of the question becomes, can I fire this coach and hire a new coach and my budget doesn't get blown out of the water. Often the answer is no. That is why Danny Manning and Jim Christian were both retained for a 6th year even though their records are significantly worse than Pastner's both overall and in the ACC.
Second, they have to weigh whether making the change has an outcome that is likely better than if they do not make a change. This is also a case where the answer is often no and this is related to how attractive your job is and how much money you have to spend. If you are going to have to pay a big buyout where you won't have funds to pay a new coach, then you are likely to end up with a coach that is the same or worse than what you have. Even if you do have money is your position attractive enough to get your first choice. VT is a good example of this. Buzz jumps to A&M, so VT does not have to pay a buyout. They reportedly missed on their top 2 targets and ultimately hired Mike Young from Wofford. While Young is considered a very good mid major coach, keep in mind he has never worked at a power conference school in his career spending the last 30 years at Wofford as an asst and HC. Also, he went from making less than $200K at Wofford to getting $2M his first year at VT (more than Pastner will make at GT next season) and has a 6 years contract that avg $2.5M per yr.
Ultimately the decision usually comes down to money which is also why Pastner is likely to be at GT for 5 years with a decision made after that season.
His initial contract was for 6 years starting at $1.6M and topping off at $2.2M in yr 6. The buyout was 100% guaranteed for the first 3 yrs, 75% in years 4 and 5 and 60% in year 6.
After his first year which wildly exceeded expectations TStan made modifications to the contract.
A 7th yr was added at $2.4M. A $500K retention bonus was added after year 5 and the buyout was pushed a year so the contract is 100% guaranteed though yr 4, dropping to 75% in yrs 5 and 6 and 60% in yr 7. One note about these changes. None of them increased Pastner's salary in the short term and all of the changes basically go into effect after Hewitt's buyout is off the books. His Salary for the rest of his contract is
Yr 4 - $1.9M
Yr 5 - $2.0M
Yr 6 - $2.2M
Yr 7 - $2.4M
one other important item that comes into play. GT AA has a "rainy day' fund. As of last fall it reportedly had about $6M in it. Helpful if you want to pay a buyout. That fund was raided to pay for the new coaching staff and now reportedly has $1M left in it, greatly impacting the ability to make coaching changes in the short term.
Finally lets look at how Pastner's contract affects when to make a decision.
If you decide to replace Pastner after year 4, he would be owed 100% of his remaining contract or $6.6M. That is a big hit and would likely significantly impact how much money you have to hire a new coach causing you to go the "inexpensive" route again. Keep in mind right now Pastner is the second lowest paid coach in the ACC with only Jim Christian being paid less (In that sense I guess he has outperformed his salary). If you want to hire a 'better' coach you need to be thinking of offering $3M+ per year avg to have a shot at that.
If he is here at the end of season 5 - the buyout would drop to $3.45M. If you retain him he is owed a $500K retention bonus and he has only 2 yrs left on his contract likely meaning a fire or extend decision needs to be made. By waiting until year 5 to make a decision the AD is effectively saving the AA over $1M (not including the $500K he would not pay out) and also allowing the rainy day fund to be replenished some.
All these reasons are why imo Pastner will be here through year 5 and then a decision will be made after the end of Yr 5.
First, you have to think like an AD, not a fan. An AD's most important job is running the AA and managing its budget. Wins and losses are a part of that, but mainly the AD wants to make sure the budget isn't running in the red. So a big part of the question becomes, can I fire this coach and hire a new coach and my budget doesn't get blown out of the water. Often the answer is no. That is why Danny Manning and Jim Christian were both retained for a 6th year even though their records are significantly worse than Pastner's both overall and in the ACC.
Second, they have to weigh whether making the change has an outcome that is likely better than if they do not make a change. This is also a case where the answer is often no and this is related to how attractive your job is and how much money you have to spend. If you are going to have to pay a big buyout where you won't have funds to pay a new coach, then you are likely to end up with a coach that is the same or worse than what you have. Even if you do have money is your position attractive enough to get your first choice. VT is a good example of this. Buzz jumps to A&M, so VT does not have to pay a buyout. They reportedly missed on their top 2 targets and ultimately hired Mike Young from Wofford. While Young is considered a very good mid major coach, keep in mind he has never worked at a power conference school in his career spending the last 30 years at Wofford as an asst and HC. Also, he went from making less than $200K at Wofford to getting $2M his first year at VT (more than Pastner will make at GT next season) and has a 6 years contract that avg $2.5M per yr.
Ultimately the decision usually comes down to money which is also why Pastner is likely to be at GT for 5 years with a decision made after that season.
His initial contract was for 6 years starting at $1.6M and topping off at $2.2M in yr 6. The buyout was 100% guaranteed for the first 3 yrs, 75% in years 4 and 5 and 60% in year 6.
After his first year which wildly exceeded expectations TStan made modifications to the contract.
A 7th yr was added at $2.4M. A $500K retention bonus was added after year 5 and the buyout was pushed a year so the contract is 100% guaranteed though yr 4, dropping to 75% in yrs 5 and 6 and 60% in yr 7. One note about these changes. None of them increased Pastner's salary in the short term and all of the changes basically go into effect after Hewitt's buyout is off the books. His Salary for the rest of his contract is
Yr 4 - $1.9M
Yr 5 - $2.0M
Yr 6 - $2.2M
Yr 7 - $2.4M
one other important item that comes into play. GT AA has a "rainy day' fund. As of last fall it reportedly had about $6M in it. Helpful if you want to pay a buyout. That fund was raided to pay for the new coaching staff and now reportedly has $1M left in it, greatly impacting the ability to make coaching changes in the short term.
Finally lets look at how Pastner's contract affects when to make a decision.
If you decide to replace Pastner after year 4, he would be owed 100% of his remaining contract or $6.6M. That is a big hit and would likely significantly impact how much money you have to hire a new coach causing you to go the "inexpensive" route again. Keep in mind right now Pastner is the second lowest paid coach in the ACC with only Jim Christian being paid less (In that sense I guess he has outperformed his salary). If you want to hire a 'better' coach you need to be thinking of offering $3M+ per year avg to have a shot at that.
If he is here at the end of season 5 - the buyout would drop to $3.45M. If you retain him he is owed a $500K retention bonus and he has only 2 yrs left on his contract likely meaning a fire or extend decision needs to be made. By waiting until year 5 to make a decision the AD is effectively saving the AA over $1M (not including the $500K he would not pay out) and also allowing the rainy day fund to be replenished some.
All these reasons are why imo Pastner will be here through year 5 and then a decision will be made after the end of Yr 5.
