Why MSU is Favored -Breakdown of Football Outsiders Numbers

[GTNavyNuke]

The Vegas line favors MSU by about 7 points as do other services.

Here's the breakdown of GT and MSU by some major categories. These stats are adjusted for the strength of opponent and take out junk time.

Basically the differential of MSU's O to our D is greater than the differential of GT's O to MSU's O. Even though our ST are better, it isn't enough statistically to sway the numbers.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

But there are a few other things to think about, most important turnovers and blocked kicks. Plus whether who is playing better right now.

For turnovers, we have a large advantage in that we are +10 for the year and MSU is +1. If we are plus two in this game, I think we win.

Also, we have a slight advantage in blocked kicks and punts at 6 for the year versus 4 for MSU. And all of MSU's came against scrub teams.

Finally, who is playing better right now. I think that is a toss-up unless MSU has lost some good players. We are definitely playing better now on D and O and ST than we have all year. But the loss of Smelter, Perkins and Snoddy is a big blow to the O.

I was so hoping to see JHD debut on D but we have what we have and they are doing better. The key for our D to be successful is to control the clock and keep our D off the field. Statistically, we can do that given our OL rushing advantage over their DL. Play fast and loose for the turnovers. Either they score quick or we stop them .......

 

[COJacket]

But there are a few other things to think about, most important turnovers and blocked kicks. Plus whether who is playing better right now.

For turnovers, we have a large advantage in that we are +10 for the year and MSU is +1. If we are plus two in this game, I think we win.

Also, we have a slight advantage in blocked kicks and punts at 6 for the year versus 4 for MSU. And all of MSU's came against scrub teams.

Finally, who is playing better right now. I think that is a toss-up unless MSU has lost some good players. We are definitely playing better now on D and O and ST than we have all year. But the loss of Smelter, Perkins and Snoddy is a big blow to the O.

I was so hoping to see JHD debut on D but we have what we have and they are doing better. The key for our D to be successful is to control the clock and keep our D off the field. Statistically, we can do that given our OL rushing advantage over their DL. Play fast and loose for the turnovers. Either they score quick or we stop them .......

This might be a dumb question - Is Perkins out?

 

[GTech63]

This might be a dumb question - Is Perkins out?

I have same question. Zenon is out?? I thought Perkins was OK

 

[GTL]

Wait. This says our advantage is on defense against MSU, but their advantage in when they're on offense.

What?

 

[Fatmike91]

Tech's defense in the last few games is so much better than our defense in the first half of the season.

You need to look at the team we will put on the field now.

The defensive stats average the poor first half with the good second half.


/

 

[augustabuzz]

But there are a few other things to think about, most important turnovers and blocked kicks. Plus whether who is playing better right now.

For turnovers, we have a large advantage in that we are +10 for the year and MSU is +1. If we are plus two in this game, I think we win.

Also, we have a slight advantage in blocked kicks and punts at 6 for the year versus 4 for MSU. And all of MSU's came against scrub teams.

Finally, who is playing better right now. I think that is a toss-up unless MSU has lost some good players. We are definitely playing better now on D and O and ST than we have all year. But the loss of Smelter, Perkins and Snoddy is a big blow to the O.

I was so hoping to see JHD debut on D but we have what we have and they are doing better. The key for our D to be successful is to control the clock and keep our D off the field. Statistically, we can do that given our OL rushing advantage over their DL. Play fast and loose for the turnovers. Either they score quick or we stop them .......

Which of our defensive looks are they comparing? We had a different front vs UVa, NCSU. CU, UGa and the 2nd half of FSU when compared to the rest of the year.

 

[awbuzz]

Our O looks different too with the missing pieces. Need the WR corp (and the A backs) to come through with some solid effort in the receiving game.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Brain fart, meant Zenon not Perkins being out. (I'm stupider than usual with a cold.)

@GTL the way I set up the chart is our OL stats versus their DL stats. And our DL stats versus their OL stats.

Both Os should dominate; statistically MSU's more. As I said, we've improved a lot but lost a lot of O firepower. Not all by any means, but the Smelter / JT connection won us a few games this year. I think we would have beat FSU with Smelter.

But it's football, all teams have injuries.

 

[danny daniel]

Brain fart, meant Zenon not Perkins being out. (I'm stupider than usual with a cold.)

@GTL the way I set up the chart is our OL stats versus their DL stats. And our DL stats versus their OL stats.

Both Os should dominate; statistically MSU's more. As I said, we've improved a lot but lost a lot of O firepower. Not all by any means, but the Smelter / JT connection won us a few games this year. I think we would have beat FSU with Smelter.

But it's football, all teams have injuries.

IMO the game comes down to:
can't get too far behind early
must have the physical effort we had in Athens, D hustle and big hits and OL blocking
must not let turnovers and kicking game take us out
JT needs another good solid performance

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Agree, we get the UGAg game type intensity from the D and we'll be fine.

Here's the write-up from Football Outsiders - have to scroll half way down to our game. http://www.addictedtoquack.com/2014...owl-season-2014-new-years-and-everything-else
"Another S+P vs. FEI battle. GT is seen as the darling in FEI (ranked #3), mostly due to their great offense (#1). S+P has MSST with an over 25 point advantage - while GT's offense is still great, their defense is still horrible. I think FEI gets this one wrong and that it's Mississippi State in a landslide."

When they talk about S+P and FEI, what they are talking about is different ways to rank teams. S+P values wins over anyone a lot more than FEI. FEI heavily considers Strenght of Opponents.

I still think that the key is our D getting stops and two turnovers. And staying off the field.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

This shows that turnovers are essential to our ball control offense: http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/team/255/turnovermargin/gamelog.html

The only two games this year where we lost the turnover battle were Fluke (-3) and FSU (-1). When we were even in turnovers, we lost to UNC (0) but beat the cupcakes Woffard and Tulane.

We don't get that one turnover against GSU (+1) and we probably lose that game and have already played in the toilet bowl. Same thing with VT (+2) where it also took multiple great plays to win with time expiring.

That's why I'm somewhat optimistic about the MSU game since they are only +1 on the year. Plus I have the feeling that our D will continue to improve.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

OK, our team is easy to predict - we win the TOs and we win. We were +1 - taking away 2 and giving up one. And the two we took away were a lot worse for MSU than the one we gave up (third and long pass int on the sidelines) as opposed to setting up in scoring position. Consistent with that we had a 34+ minute TOP. http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/team/255/turnovermargin/gamelog.html

Here was Football Outsiders prediction, similar to mine, that MSU was favored but it was going to be a close game. In my case, I just said if we won the turnover battle we should win since that would compensate for our weak D. http://www.rollbamaroll.com/2014/12...-numbers-football-the-big-orange-bowl-preview

Article is just interesting to read since it is written by a highly knowledgable CFB fan who is not highly knowledagelbe of GT. An example,
"Bobby Dodd was a visionary, as evidenced by his distaste for oversigning and dirty, concussion-filled play like 40 years before anyone else."

I'll post the game analysis when / if it comes up. I think it will since we turned some heads.