Why GT will repeat Double-Digit Wins, challenge for CFP, and Why Not (long post)

[awbuzz]

Among the many things I have learned on this board is the one of unintended consequences. That being if you want to get statistics, a board full of engineer types is the place to go. And that is not a slam because they are all good. Just an observation that I would make eight out of 10 times.

Why not four out if five? [emoji6]

 

[slugboy]

Among the many things I have learned on this board is the one of unintended consequences. That being if you want to get statistics, a board full of engineer types is the place to go. And that is not a slam because they are all good. Just an observation that I would make eight out of 10 times.

I could have just said that we're not getting penetration or a good push up front--the stats tell the story though. Here are some highlights from last year's ACC Championship--we blow some coverages, but their offensive blocking was just killing us. They stopped themselves more than we stopped them.

Hopefully, we'll be better up front on D next year.

 

[AE 87]

We had experience on defense, but I don't see why you'd call it a "scheme" problem. For the most part, our front 3/4 were losing on the line of scrimmage. For example, against FSU, Winston went un-harrassed for the game, and FSU could run or pass easily. When FSU faced Oregon, Winston was horrible because he was hurried. Duke, UNC, and GSU weren't really pressured.

In 2008, we had 34 sacks for 252 yards
In 2009, we had 25 sacks for 164 yards
In 2010, we had 17 sacks for 114 yards
In 2011, we had 22 sacks for 146 yards
In 2012, we had 28 sacks for 176 yards
In 2013, we had 34 sacks for 228 yards
In 2014, we had 20 sacks for 127 yards

Last year, we had 61 tackles for loss. for 242 yards. In 2008, we had 95 tackles for loss for 400 yards.

We gave up 6.2 yards per play last year--111th in the country (that's "111", not "11"). It was 5.6 yards the year before, and 4.9 in 2008 and 4.8 the year before that.

Last year was on the lower end of playing on the opponent's side of the ball by even recent Georgia Tech standards. I don't we got much of a chance to see what our scheme might be like because we were getting reliably blocked. And that's with Freeman running free for some sacks. Keshun had 9.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, leading both categories. Behind him was Paul Davis, then Gotsis. Without Keshun, those numbers would be much worse.

I was saying that if it were scheme, we wouldn't see huge improvement on D this year. Your stat show our bad results not the reason for them.

To play devil's advocate, we weren't better than average in 2013 when we put 6 guys on nfl rosters for a time. Saying we need 3 seniors on DL capable of making nfl rosters to be average isn't a ringing endorsement of the scheme.

 

[CuseJacket]

ESPN Take 2: ACC position group set to make biggest improvement

Folks in Atlanta believe, too. “We can be a dominant group,” Freeman told me during my spring visit. “Last year, we played with a lot of young guys and we were making a lot of young guy mistakes, but this year we have a lot of veterans and we have a lot of guys who played and our back. That's going to make us better for the next few years. That's what our D is doing this year. We're tuning things up instead of teaching things. Once we get tuned up, we're going to be ready to go.”

 

[cuttysark]

It boils down to this: An outstanding QB returning along with 4 out of 5 returning O-Linemen and good depth;

A D-Line that returns 3 out of 4 and plugs in JHD at DT who has been working his butt off to play again and should be an equal if not better replacement for Shawn Green who played very well last year and stayed healthy when we had absolutely no line depth.

This freshman class will push the upper class into playing well or they run the risk of hitting the pine. Don't tell me that Laskey and Days weren't being pushed all year by true freshman CJ Leggett. Darren Waller caught everything thrown his way and stepped up big time when Smelter went down.

As far as A-Backs, Zenon was hurt toward the end of the season so Andrews stepped up as did Bostic. Losing Andrews wasn't a help, but we lost more last off season and the team went out and played their butts off to an 11 and 3 season. The secondary is solid and watch out for Terrell Lewis to make everyone forget about Quayshan Nealy at LB.

The early schedule sets up nicely heading into ND. This program has matured beyond where it was in 2009 as the leadership is intact with an underclassman who sets the tone. Not four talented kids who decided to leave early for the NFL.

I'm excited to see what a Bulldozer disguised as a transfer graduate student can bring to the B-Back interior plays as GT has never had that before. Lucas Cox was either filling in at A-Back or backing up Dwyer and not getting many reps. This ought to be a really fun season on the Flats.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

The only thing that worries me is all the 10-win-expectation guys flipping out if we don't meet it. That's a tall order, it would be an amazing year if we did it. The fact that it means back-to-back double-digit seasons, which is almost unheard of at GT, makes it even more amazing.

 

[cuttysark]

But this is much better and entertaining to discuss than hanging on to a barely six win season and hoping to keep the bowl streak going. What is also nice was the new GT oral commit saying he came to GT because: "They WIN!"

 

[alaguy]

There are fewer question marks than last yr but the schedule could easily negate that.There are some real tough opponents and not much time to rest.Maybe a better team but worse record --overall.

 

[BBK]

Maybe I missed something, but nobody has mentioned that Leggett will be out...
"We have a playmaker at A-Back returning with Snoddy, Ike with lots of time in the system, two high-upside guys in Searcy and Leggett with some or all of their RS year at A-Back and talented incoming freshmen who will also compete."

 

[Gtech50]

Maybe I missed something, but nobody has mentioned that Leggett will be out...
"We have a playmaker at A-Back returning with Snoddy, Ike with lots of time in the system, two high-upside guys in Searcy and Leggett with some or all of their RS year at A-Back and talented incoming freshmen who will also compete."

I think he/she meant Lynch

 

[Skeptic]

Why not four out if five? [emoji6]

What is the probability factor there? I find the numbers intriguing but every time I finish with them my head hurts.

 

[slugboy]

I will be pleasantly surprised if Skov and Marcus Allen run and block close to as well as Days and Laskey did last year.

 

[takethepoints]

Yeah, me too.

I'm penciling us in for 8 wins; too much inexperience at O skill positions. I would bet that JT will again lead the team in rushing and, I'm afraid, by a substantial margin. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not as sanguine as others here.

If the D improves to "pretty good" and if our luck from last year holds, then 9 - 10 is a possibility. But it really does take a lot of luck to win that many consistently, even at schools with much lower recruiting barriers - ask the folks at Texas.

Oth, we won't be like UNC: a boatload of talent and nothing to show for it.

 

[Skeptic]

I will be pleasantly surprised if Skov and Marcus Allen run and block close to as well as Days and Laskey did last year.

I agree. And if they do Tech will be a long way toward double digit wins again. But 1,800 yards is a big ditch.

 

[AE 87]

Maybe I missed something, but nobody has mentioned that Leggett will be out...
"We have a playmaker at A-Back returning with Snoddy, Ike with lots of time in the system, two high-upside guys in Searcy and Leggett with some or all of their RS year at A-Back and talented incoming freshmen who will also compete."

I think he/she meant Lynch

Thanks. He did mean Lynch.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

@Northeast Stinger
I was not giving pros and cons but contrasting perspectives. One take has us nationally competitive the other not.

Personally, I tend toward the optimistic view on offense and cautiously optimistic on D.

However, I wonder how bad you think our talent on D is that you can declare our scheme saved us. We had two good games, CU and georgie. Otherwise we relied on turnovers. Even the two good games would have been much different without turnovers.

Like I said, I tend to want to blame youth and inexperience, but I don't see how you so easily dismiss the other alternative. After their opening possession, FSU scored 4 straight TDs followed by 3 straight FGs. Two TDs came from wide open passes for 44 and 46 yds. The other two came from drives where FSU averaged 7+ and 10+ yds/play. For the season, they averaged 6.39 yds/play. Against us, they aversged 7.75 yds/play, their best performance for the year.

Yes. I knew what you were doing. I just thought your more optimistic assessment was a tighter argument.

The scheme, in my opinion, was to make up for deficiencies in personnel. CTR wanted to play fast and aggressive but he also did not want to give up the big play. That is one of the reasons our secondary for much of the year tried to keep the play in front of them rather than playing tighter and crowding routes. At the same time he worked on particular schemes that created chances for interceptions and he worked on techniques that created changes for turnovers off of fumbles. What he never had in the midst of all of this was four good linemen who could put pressure on the quarterback. FSU had their best game of the season against Tech due primarily to lack of pressure on Winston. Even so, Tech missed a sure interception that might have turned the game around as well as holding FSU to field goals in the second half.

 

[AE 87]

Yes. I knew what you were doing. I just thought your more optimistic assessment was a tighter argument.

The scheme, in my opinion, was to make up for deficiencies in personnel. CTR wanted to play fast and aggressive but he also did not want to give up the big play. That is one of the reasons our secondary for much of the year tried to keep the play in front of them rather than playing tighter and crowding routes. At the same time he worked on particular schemes that created chances for interceptions and he worked on techniques that created changes for turnovers off of fumbles. What he never had in the midst of all of this was four good linemen who could put pressure on the quarterback. FSU had their best game of the season against Tech due primarily to lack of pressure on Winston. Even so, Tech missed a sure interception that might have turned the game around as well as holding FSU to field goals in the second half.

But, you didn't answer my question. While I am hopeful that we'll turn it around this year, how bad do you think our talen is that our scheme saved us from being worse than #114 in 3rd down D?

You say that scheme made up for deficiencies in personnel. Is it your position that we had the worst personnel in the country? I'm looking for specific answers. Like I said, I'm hopeful that you're right that it was personnel and bad breaks, but I don't see how you can dismiss the negative interpretation so casually.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

But, you didn't answer my question. While I am hopeful that we'll turn it around this year, how bad do you think our talen is that our scheme saved us from being worse than #114 in 3rd down D?

You say that scheme made up for deficiencies in personnel. Is it your position that we had the worst personnel in the country? I'm looking for specific answers. Like I said, I'm hopeful that you're right that it was personnel and bad breaks, but I don't see how you can dismiss the negative interpretation so casually.[/QUOTE
O.K., I am not sure how specific you need this to be but let me reiterate that the main problem I saw was defensive line. There were minor problems in other areas with the defense but these got magnified due to lack of immediate pressure by the line both on running plays and pass plays. Had we not had decent speed among the linebackers and in the secondary it could have gotten much uglier. For instance, think about how many times those guys chased people down from behind or caused fumbles.

Without calling specific players out too much let's just say that we had one good DT who got doubled teamed much of the time and one decent SDE who could hold his position but got little help. We had one WDE who showed flashes of pure brilliance but had not yet benefited from extended levels of college level training and conditioning and who was considerably underweight. Overall I think our defensive line was among the poorest in the conference talent wise. They got gashed over and over on running plays and CTR had to make strategic decisions constantly through the course of games on whether to run blitz for support. Every move he made had the downside of exposing the rest of the defense meaning he had to use "bend but don't break" much of the time and be selective about when to bring more pressure.

This year I see Gotsis getting a lot less double teaming which means he instantly gains penetration potential on almost every play. JHD looks to be all he was advertised as which means he will get lots of attention from the offensive line freeing up the other defenders. This has the potential to make one defensive end who was decent last year a key player and to make the other defensive end (Freeman) a star in the conference. We also will have a whole lot more depth this year. All of this will make our fast and aggressive linebackers a feared commodity. Our secondary could turn into a ball hawking circus performance on any given Saturday.

But yes, I think the defensive line was bad last year. All the players we lost in the off season hurt our depth tremendously, as you know, and some of the players we had left were still a year away, in my opinion, from being an every down player.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Something weird happened while I was taking conference calls and trying to write this so I posted this again just in case.

O.K., I am not sure how specific you need this to be but let me reiterate that the main problem I saw was defensive line. There were minor problems in other areas with the defense but these got magnified due to lack of immediate pressure by the line both on running plays and pass plays. Had we not had decent speed among the linebackers and in the secondary it could have gotten much uglier. For instance, think about how many times those guys chased people down from behind or caused fumbles.

Without calling specific players out too much let's just say that we had one good DT who got doubled teamed much of the time and one decent SDE who could hold his position but got little help. We had one WDE who showed flashes of pure brilliance but had not yet benefited from extended levels of college level training and conditioning and who was considerably underweight. Overall I think our defensive line was among the poorest in the conference talent wise. They got gashed over and over on running plays and CTR had to make strategic decisions constantly through the course of games on whether to run blitz for support. Every move he made had the downside of exposing the rest of the defense meaning he had to use "bend but don't break" much of the time and be selective about when to bring more pressure.

This year I see Gotsis getting a lot less double teaming which means he instantly gains penetration potential on almost every play. JHD looks to be all he was advertised as which means he will get lots of attention from the offensive line freeing up the other defenders. This has the potential to make one defensive end who was decent last year a key player and to make the other defensive end (Freeman) a star in the conference. We also will have a whole lot more depth this year. All of this will make our fast and aggressive linebackers a feared commodity. Our secondary could turn into a ball hawking circus performance on any given Saturday.

But yes, I think the defensive line was bad last year. All the players we lost in the off season hurt our depth tremendously, as you know, and some of the players we had left were still a year away, in my opinion, from being an every down player.

 

[AE 87]

Something weird happened while I was taking conference calls and trying to write this so I posted this again just in case.

O.K., I am not sure how specific you need this to be but let me reiterate that the main problem I saw was defensive line. There were minor problems in other areas with the defense but these got magnified due to lack of immediate pressure by the line both on running plays and pass plays. Had we not had decent speed among the linebackers and in the secondary it could have gotten much uglier. For instance, think about how many times those guys chased people down from behind or caused fumbles.

Without calling specific players out too much let's just say that we had one good DT who got doubled teamed much of the time and one decent SDE who could hold his position but got little help. We had one WDE who showed flashes of pure brilliance but had not yet benefited from extended levels of college level training and conditioning and who was considerably underweight. Overall I think our defensive line was among the poorest in the conference talent wise. They got gashed over and over on running plays and CTR had to make strategic decisions constantly through the course of games on whether to run blitz for support. Every move he made had the downside of exposing the rest of the defense meaning he had to use "bend but don't break" much of the time and be selective about when to bring more pressure.

This year I see Gotsis getting a lot less double teaming which means he instantly gains penetration potential on almost every play. JHD looks to be all he was advertised as which means he will get lots of attention from the offensive line freeing up the other defenders. This has the potential to make one defensive end who was decent last year a key player and to make the other defensive end (Freeman) a star in the conference. We also will have a whole lot more depth this year. All of this will make our fast and aggressive linebackers a feared commodity. Our secondary could turn into a ball hawking circus performance on any given Saturday.

But yes, I think the defensive line was bad last year. All the players we lost in the off season hurt our depth tremendously, as you know, and some of the players we had left were still a year away, in my opinion, from being an every down player.

No worries. I understand the argument for blaming talent youth inexperience. My optimistic perspective is based on it.

However, I was wondering how you dismiss the negative perspective so easily. It we had the worst talent in FBS, then saying scheme absolutely saved us and got us to bad makes sense, but I don't think our talent was that bad. So, I can't dismiss the negative perspective entirely.

We gave up a lot of plays because guys were out of position, DBs with their eyes on the QB getting beat deep etc. Linebackers getting caught up in the wash leaving a gap open for a big run. Is that from guys going off script or scheme? How can you tell?

Duke played a bend but don't break D, and allowed 1.98 ppd v P5, we allowed 2.46. That's almost a TD/game on average. Was our talent that much worse than Duke's? By comparison, good Ds allowed less than 1.5 ppd v P5.