Why GT will repeat Double-Digit Wins, challenge for CFP, and Why Not (long post)

[AE 87]

I know that we've already talked a lot about different aspects of this question, but I thought I would put a lot of factors together in one thread to see if we can identify the key issues to look for over camp and early games.

2014 Review Offense
GT had one of the most efficient scoring offenses in college football last year. Versus P5 teams, we scored a touchdown on 46.8% of our drives, averaging 3.52 ppd. Oregon had a higher ppd vs P5 but lower TD%. After UNC, we scored a TD on 50.7% of our drives. By comparison for those same remaining weeks, tOSU scored a TD on 42.6% and Oregon on 45.0% of their drives. I think this improvement tracks with JT's improvement at QB.

We also did it fairly methodically. We didn't have as many big plays, over 40 yards (17), for example, as we had in 2011 (25) and 2012 (21). However, we had more plays over 10 yds (226) than we had in 2011 (174) and 2012 (175). We played one more game in 2014 than in 2011 and 2012. We converted 56.3% of 3rd downs versus P5 opponents, surpassing Auburn (51.8%) and tOSU (51.2%). Fwiw, I credit this to our OL and QB getting the blocks and making the right reads giving us more 10+ yard plays, while we perhaps didn't have as many big plays because of the lack of an Orwin Smith play-maker.

2014 Review Defense
GT did not have an efficient D in 2014. Versus P5 teams, we allowed 2.46 ppd (#69) and a TD 29.46% of drives (#64). After UNC, we allowed 2.08 ppd (#63 for those weeks). However, that did reflect an improvement from the 2.88 ppd allowed up through the UNC game (#115).

We also got burned a lot. We were #113 in giving up plays over 10 yds (206), #100 in plays over 20, and then in the 50's for plays over 30 and 40 yds. We were #86 in allowing P5 opponents to convert 3rd down (46.3%). November was better than this, but Decemeber/January was worse. I'm not sure what explains these numbers entirely.

2015: Why we will win 10+ games and challenge for CFP
The strength of our 2014 O was QB and OL play, which is largely returning. We have a playmaker at A-Back returning with Snoddy, Ike with lots of time in the system, two high-upside guys in Searcy and Leggett with some or all of their RS year at A-Back and talented incoming freshmen who will also compete. At WR, we've got a multi-game starter and many game contributor in Summers returning as well as two guys with two years in the program as well as some talented new faces. With Allen, Skov, and incoming freshmen competing at B-Back, we won't slide back much if at all from 2014.

The improvement evident on D will solidify. We played a lot of true freshmen and backups last year, and they will be bigger, stronger, and more ready to contribute this year. We also get the injection of JHD and KW on the DL. Our 2014 problems on D are attributable to youth, inexperience, and others trying to compensate. Those problems will just disappear as a result of the added experience coming in.

Finally, our schedule lines up well for us. We play ND, but after Alcorn State and Tulane, so we should have the kinks out without being too roughed up. We then get Duke and UNC before Clemson and then Pitt before FSU, UVA before VPI and a bye before Miami. While you can't write-off any ACC teams, we're not playing any of the big ACC opponents back-to-back.

In 2014, TCU, tOSU and Oregon scored between 1.4 and 1.5 more ppd than they allowed versus P5 opponents. Michigan State, Alabama, GT, u[sic]ga, and Baylor scored between .87 and 1.14 more ppd than they allowed. Wisconsin, KSt, and MissSt scored .67-.69 more. If our D improves to the level of, say, Duke's and our O doesn't fall off much, we'd be comfortably in the 1st tier category.

2015: Why we won't win 10+ etc
The skill-guys from 2014 O were actually a bigger deal than previous analysis credits. No new A-Back can consistently get blocks on the perimeter, and we have more fumbles on pitches and tosses. No WR is able to run the routes and make the catches that we got from Smelter and Waller in 2014. The new B-backs are slow to the mesh and also fumble more.

The problem with 2014 D was not primarily youth and inexperience but our scheme getting picked-apart by opposition offenses.

When we'll know
If I've got it right, then we should have a pretty good idea about our O after the first couple of games. Even against poor opponents, we should be able to see if blocks are being made, if passes are being caught, and whether we're fumbling on pitches etc. We could also know about how well the D is performing its assignments and if we're just shutting them down and getting them off the field. Still, it will probably take the ND game to see about the D.

What say y'all.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Thanks for a great post.

I think we "should" be better on paper too. One area not mentioned is ST where we have our kicker and returners coming back. (ST is about 18% of the plays in a game).

Why we shouldn't be better? Sh!t happens. I'll update the stats sometime this week on how GT has done after such a good season over the last 111 years. Injuries, bad bounces, whatever. For GT we usually don't do better after such a good year. The margin between victory and defeat can be small. Like 1/2 yard on Butker's kick to put the dwags to overtime. Or a fumble to stop GSU (yes the powerhouse GSU) from beating us.

 

[OldJacketFan]

Been sitting here pondering on this one. Rationally I think it's going to be tough only because of one or two uncertainties. Thinking back to last year, breaking in a new QB, issue with attrition, griping fan base when it came to CPJ. Weren't the uncertainties greater last year? On paper the schedule is more difficult but I learned a long time ago paper if flimsy. Young talent that learned and played a lot across both the D and the O, 4/5 of the starting O line back, top flight QB, deeper/more experienced D line. If JHD makes it back, if Skow can solidify the B back position, if injuries are to a minimum and if the A backs on the roster/plus 1 or 2 of the freshmen are as capable as I think. Yes, double digit wins.

Question marks? Sure but tell me a team that doesn't have them that we play?

This is what makes it SO much fun and college football the best there is!

 

[AE 87]

OK, let me add another question mark for me. With our offense, I know that we scout scheme rather than players. That is to say, we scout how Ds will likely line up against us, but not which particular opposition personnel we might try and exploit.

I think we do the same on D. And I'm not sure it's a good thing. For example, iirc, in 2013, we were playing a team forced to start a Fr a OT, and the announcers kept wondering why we didn't just line up JA against him. Apparently, Ted wasn't even aware of the situation when asked. In 2014, it seemed like some Os really exploited D Smith in pass coverage.

Do some Ds make sure they have their best cover guys on the best receivers or is what we do normal?

 

[Skeptic]

Thanks for a great post.

I think we "should" be better on paper too. One area not mentioned is ST where we have our kicker and returners coming back. (ST is about 18% of the plays in a game).

Why we shouldn't be better? Sh!t happens. I'll update the stats sometime this week on how GT has done after such a good season over the last 111 years. Injuries, bad bounces, whatever. For GT we usually don't do better after such a good year. The margin between victory and defeat can be small. Like 1/2 yard on Butker's kick to put the dwags to overtime. Or a fumble to stop GSU (yes the powerhouse GSU) from beating us.

I'll echo that. A great synopsis and logical and objective I think. It seems to me that with a tougher schedule in '15 it creates the need, opportunity if you will, for a big time FG kicker. I'm anxious to see what effect that big kick against Georgia will have on Butker, and if his accuracy will improve enough to prove decisive in one or more big time games. Starting with ND maybe. I do think that expecting the WRs and Abacks to match the skill levels of '14 is somewhat optimistic. Still have freshmen and sophs replacing seniors, chancy at best. Good analysis and I appreciate it.

 

[TheGridironGeek]

They will because they have a great QB and an upstart defense with size and talent. What the unfavorable stat sheet is missing is acknowledgment of how the Jackets' D got better as the season progressed. The defense that gave up shoot-out losses to average P5 programs early on was not one that made big play after big play in beating Georgia, Clemson etc. The remaining Achilles heel, lack of pass rush, will be forgotten as GT generates pressure from a vastly improved DL in 2015.

Any time a Flexbone team has a good defense, they win. Imagine Navy with GT's talent on defense. The Mids would become the Boise State of the East. The '15 GT schedule is also filled with marquee but beatable opponents. For all the hand-wringing it's not like the Wreck opens up against Ohio State in Columbus.

They won't because they have a small margin of error and a limited # of kicks at the can. The offensive backfield is not very deep. CTR relies on athletes standing out and you can't stand out if you're hurt. Three or four injuries at key spots could put this Tech team in the Bahamas Bowl.

 

[OldJacketFan]

At the college level I don't see many D's playing a pure match up like you do in the NFL. Corners, by their very nature, are boundary or field. You generally see the best tackling corner on the boundary and the best cover corner on the field side. Very few collegiate corners are skilled enough to play away from the strengths. Rarely will you see a Revis type that blankets the oppositions best WR wherever he goes in the formation.

 

[awbuzz]

A lot of IFs, but every team has them in one form or another.

Probable a better 1 - 85 team this year (no knock on those that have left), but could have a worse record. Sometimes the ball doesn't always bounce your way (i.e. some luck). Review most of the games last season and there are some we could have won that we lost and vice versa.

If the RS Freshmen step up and fill in, some true freshmen do well and we stay healthy - specifically in the trenches on both sides of the ball - we should do very well.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Really good analysis on the prospects for this year but I think on this following statement you were stretching a little bit to give out some "cons" after the rather positive "pros" you gave concerning winning 10 or more games.

The problem with 2014 D was not primarily youth and inexperience but our scheme getting picked-apart by opposition offenses.

D could in fact not be very good this year but I do not think it will be because of scheme. I actually think our scheme is what saved the defense last year. Our liabilities had to do with having players who were not as mature athletically and just frankly not being very good on the defensive line. But good analysis overall.

Weren't the uncertainties greater last year?

No question in my mind about this. Last year we had far more question marks than this year. This year, ironically, we still have some of the same question marks as last year like A-back, B-back and WR. But we do not have the same level of concerns we had last year over quarterback, defensive line or special teams.

They won't because they have a small margin of error and a limited # of kicks at the can.

This. What has some of us a little giddy (drinking of the Kool Aid?) is that this year the margin for error seems to have enlarged a bit. Many a year I have watched Tech it seemed they had to play a perfect game against the best competition to even have a chance of winning. This year, having a defense that gets one or two more stops per game, allows the offense the luxury of not having to dominate every game for Tech to win.

In summary, I feel pretty positive about this season. Can anything go wrong? Of course. If we discover early on that we do not have a WR who can make the clutch play I will begin to nibble my finger nails to the quick. Likewise, if we discover that our A-backs "don't know where to go" or can't carry out their blocking assignments, the offense will be missing a major cog in the machine. Either or both of these could lead to an average season given the strength of the schedule.

 

[Sean311]

I think we'll have some ups and downs, jubilation and heart break, madness with sadness and another great Tech football season. That being said, if the team retained that never say die attitude, they could win 10+ again. Justin Thomas is going to have to take on that leadership role even more this year. I expect HUGE plays from JT and surprises from people we never thought would step up.

Can't wait!

 

[AE 87]

The importance of fumbles.
ppd for 2009, 2011-14
3.1, 3.0, 2.8, 2.9, 3.6
% drives ending with lost fumble
8.3, 7.7, 8.1, 7.3, 8.6

ppd for 2008, 2010
2.0, 2.2
% drives ending with lost fumble
13.6, 13.8

If we're not losing fumbles, our offense will be very good.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The importance of fumbles.
ppd for 2009, 2011-14
3.1, 3.0, 2.8, 2.9, 3.6
% drives ending with lost fumble
8.3, 7.7, 8.1, 7.3, 8.6

ppd for 2008, 2010
2.0, 2.2
% drives ending with lost fumble
13.6, 13.8

If we're not losing fumbles, our offense will be very good.

This is it exactly for the O. Defenses like to make the O run lots of plays till they screw up. Doesn't matter whether it is rushing or passing. The 2010 team was a nightmare for us .....2010 had more rushing yards than 2009 but the fumbles lost that advantage. Brings up painful memories. But that is why I'm cautious in the off season; I've seen too many teams (HS, college and pro) face plant when the season starts. But on paper we should be better, especially D.

 

[slugboy]

I know that we've already talked a lot about different aspects of this question, but I thought I would put a lot of factors together in one thread to see if we can identify the key issues to look for over camp and early games.
...
2015: Why we won't win 10+ etc
The skill-guys from 2014 O were actually a bigger deal than previous analysis credits. No new A-Back can consistently get blocks on the perimeter, and we have more fumbles on pitches and tosses. No WR is able to run the routes and make the catches that we got from Smelter and Waller in 2014. The new B-backs are slow to the mesh and also fumble more.

The problem with 2014 D was not primarily youth and inexperience but our scheme getting picked-apart by opposition offenses.
...
What say y'all.

We had experience on defense, but I don't see why you'd call it a "scheme" problem. For the most part, our front 3/4 were losing on the line of scrimmage. For example, against FSU, Winston went un-harrassed for the game, and FSU could run or pass easily. When FSU faced Oregon, Winston was horrible because he was hurried. Duke, UNC, and GSU weren't really pressured.

In 2008, we had 34 sacks for 252 yards
In 2009, we had 25 sacks for 164 yards
In 2010, we had 17 sacks for 114 yards
In 2011, we had 22 sacks for 146 yards
In 2012, we had 28 sacks for 176 yards
In 2013, we had 34 sacks for 228 yards
In 2014, we had 20 sacks for 127 yards

Last year, we had 61 tackles for loss. for 242 yards. In 2008, we had 95 tackles for loss for 400 yards.

We gave up 6.2 yards per play last year--111th in the country (that's "111", not "11"). It was 5.6 yards the year before, and 4.9 in 2008 and 4.8 the year before that.

Last year was on the lower end of playing on the opponent's side of the ball by even recent Georgia Tech standards. I don't we got much of a chance to see what our scheme might be like because we were getting reliably blocked. And that's with Freeman running free for some sacks. Keshun had 9.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, leading both categories. Behind him was Paul Davis, then Gotsis. Without Keshun, those numbers would be much worse.

 

[slugboy]

I think we'll be better on defense--we should be better on the defensive line, and hopefully a little better at LB.

 

[bigsands]

8 wins will be a good season.

Team lost to Duke and UNC last year and neither loss was a fluke. Trading Ga Southern and NC State for ND and Fla State on the schedule is brutal. Loss of nearly all BB, AB and WR leaves offensive effectiveness in doubt.

Plus side - Justin Thomas is the real deal, defense should be improved overall, and the offensive system merits confidence.

If everything falls into place and this team reaches 10+ wins, I will be thrilled, but 2/3 of the schedule is Clemson, Miami, FSU, ND, VT, Duke, UNC, and Uga. These are real teams, and no disrespect to Pitt and UVa (at UVA no less, where we have lost many, many times).

Hopefully a fun team. I hope the new skill players produce. I hope the defense stays aggressive like they were much of the 2nd half of last year. I hope we find a pass rush. I hope the turnover margin stays in our favor. I hope we stay healthy. I hope 80% of the incoming class is able to redshirt. And if we win 7+ games, I hope I will retain this perspective and appreciate the victories that the team brings. Can't wait...

 

[Sean311]

8 wins will be a good season.

Team lost to Duke and UNC last year and neither loss was a fluke. Trading Ga Southern and NC State for ND and Fla State on the schedule is brutal. Loss of nearly all BB, AB and WR leaves offensive effectiveness in doubt.

Plus side - Justin Thomas is the real deal, defense should be improved overall, and the offensive system merits confidence.

If everything falls into place and this team reaches 10+ wins, I will be thrilled, but 2/3 of the schedule is Clemson, Miami, FSU, ND, VT, Duke, UNC, and Uga. These are real teams, and no disrespect to Pitt and UVa (at UVA no less, where we have lost many, many times).

Hopefully a fun team. I hope the new skill players produce. I hope the defense stays aggressive like they were much of the 2nd half of last year. I hope we find a pass rush. I hope the turnover margin stays in our favor. I hope we stay healthy. I hope 80% of the incoming class is able to redshirt. And if we win 7+ games, I hope I will retain this perspective and appreciate the victories that the team brings. Can't wait...

I completely agree it's going to be really tough to pull out 10 wins with that schedule. Defense has to create turnovers like they did last year to have a shot.

 

[Skeptic]

We had experience on defense, but I don't see why you'd call it a "scheme" problem. For the most part, our front 3/4 were losing on the line of scrimmage. For example, against FSU, Winston went un-harrassed for the game, and FSU could run or pass easily. When FSU faced Oregon, Winston was horrible because he was hurried. Duke, UNC, and GSU weren't really pressured.

In 2008, we had 34 sacks for 252 yards
In 2009, we had 25 sacks for 164 yards
In 2010, we had 17 sacks for 114 yards
In 2011, we had 22 sacks for 146 yards
In 2012, we had 28 sacks for 176 yards
In 2013, we had 34 sacks for 228 yards
In 2014, we had 20 sacks for 127 yards

Last year, we had 61 tackles for loss. for 242 yards. In 2008, we had 95 tackles for loss for 400 yards.

We gave up 6.2 yards per play last year--111th in the country (that's "111", not "11"). It was 5.6 yards the year before, and 4.9 in 2008 and 4.8 the year before that.

Last year was on the lower end of playing on the opponent's side of the ball by even recent Georgia Tech standards. I don't we got much of a chance to see what our scheme might be like because we were getting reliably blocked. And that's with Freeman running free for some sacks. Keshun had 9.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, leading both categories. Behind him was Paul Davis, then Gotsis. Without Keshun, those numbers would be much worse.

 

[Skeptic]

Among the many things I have learned on this board is the one of unintended consequences. That being if you want to get statistics, a board full of engineer types is the place to go. And that is not a slam because they are all good. Just an observation that I would make eight out of 10 times.

 

[AE 87]

@Northeast Stinger
I was not giving pros and cons but contrasting perspectives. One take has us nationally competitive the other not.

Personally, I tend toward the optimistic view on offense and cautiously optimistic on D.

However, I wonder how bad you think our talent on D is that you can declare our scheme saved us. We had two good games, CU and georgie. Otherwise we relied on turnovers. Even the two good games would have been much different without turnovers.

Like I said, I tend to want to blame youth and inexperience, but I don't see how you so easily dismiss the other alternative. After their opening possession, FSU scored 4 straight TDs followed by 3 straight FGs. Two TDs came from wide open passes for 44 and 46 yds. The other two came from drives where FSU averaged 7+ and 10+ yds/play. For the season, they averaged 6.39 yds/play. Against us, they aversged 7.75 yds/play, their best performance for the year.

 

[Minawreck]

Three or four injuries at key spots could put this Tech team in the Bahamas Bowl.

Would this be a bad thing, from a bowl trip perspective?