Why do we expect to beat the "big 4?"

dressedcheeseside

Helluva Engineer
Messages
14,094
Or any factory for that matter? Our expectations are way out of wack here folks. I get want to win, heck, I want to win those games, too, but expecting and wanting are two completely different things. How in the world does anybody with any inkling of common sense or logic expect to beat teams that have not just marginally better talent than we do across the board, but in most cases, exponentially more talent.

Take Uga for example. They wrack up top 10 after top 10 classes and yet, guys on here proudly proclaim they're not happy unless we beat them. Then they go on to spout off the string of defeats. Well what do you expect? This is not a game of chance where the odds eventually even out. This isn't like flipping a coin where there's a 50/50 chance it lands on one side or the other. Those guys are a semi-pro football f-a-c-t-o-r-y. Same story for most of the other teams the "no excuses" crowd holds up as a measuring stick for our success. The fact that we've been so competitive in these contests where talent differential suggests we should be blown off the face of the earth, says something positive about our program, imo.

These same fans also dismiss wins against teams with comparable talent like it's a meaningless given.

I get having high expectations as a point of pride, I do. I just don't get the logic behind them.

Average recruiting ranking over the last 5 years (composite of all the services http://cfbmatrix.com/pre-nsd-the-ultimate-reference-guide-feb-6th/):

Uga: 10 (over the last 10 years they're #2)
Clemson: 15
VT: 22
Miami: 26

GT: 77


You do the math.
 

GTrob21

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,458
Or any factory for that matter? Our expectations are way out of wack here folks. I get want to win, heck, I want to win those games, too, but expecting and wanting are two completely different things. How in the world does anybody with any inkling of common sense or logic expect to beat teams that have not just marginally better talent than we do across the board, but in most cases, exponentially more talent.

Take Uga for example. They wrack up top 10 after top 10 classes and yet, guys on here proudly proclaim they're not happy unless we beat them. Then they go on to spout off the string of defeats. Well what do you expect? This is not a game of chance where the odds eventually even out. This isn't like flipping a coin where there's a 50/50 chance it lands on one side or the other. Those guys are a semi-pro football f-a-c-t-o-r-y. Same story for most of the other teams the "no excuses" crowd holds up as a measuring stick for our success. The fact that we've been so competitive in these contests where talent differential suggests we should be blown off the face of the earth, says something positive about our program, imo.

These same fans also dismiss wins against teams with comparable talent like it's a meaningless given.

I get having high expectations as a point of pride, I do. I just don't get the logic behind them.

Average recruiting ranking over the last 5 years (composite of all the services http://cfbmatrix.com/pre-nsd-the-ultimate-reference-guide-feb-6th/):

Uga: 10 (over the last 10 years they're #2)
Clemson: 15
VT: 22
Miami: 26

GT: 77


You do the math.


We should give up playing football then and go to D-2...
 

dressedcheeseside

Helluva Engineer
Messages
14,094
Look at it this way. If I was a Uga fan, I'd be pissed if we had to go to overtime to beat a team that we out talented on the order of 7.

Syracuse, a team we beat 56 to zip has, in fact, comparable talent, yet it means nothing beating them, much less beating them like a rented mule. (*Correction, according to the services, they have slightly better overall talent than we do: #72 vs #77)
 

IronJacket7

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,545
A reasoned response would be appreciated. I guess you don't have one. Again, why do you expect to win those particular games?

If I may... I don't "expect" to win any game. But growing up and watching all the GT greats in football, basketball, etc... It instilled in me as a young child the sense of hope that GT could win any game. That sense of hope is what drives me as a GT fan and regardless of talent gap I "expect" us to be at least competitive in every game because we are GT.

We will ever close the talent gap? I don't know. But I have come to learn that the difference between a 1 star and a 5 star is based solely on an educated guess and not fact or future assurance.
 

TampaBuzz

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
991
I expect to beat them because that is the point of the competition. If we don't expect to beat them, why show up? Do I realistically believe we will beat them every year? No...but I certainly expect better than our recent results.
 

GTRX7

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,520
Location
Atlanta
I certainly don't expect to beat those teams every time we go out and play them. In fact, for teams like UGA and FSU, I fully expect that we will end up losing more than 50% of the time against them. However, in reality, we do seem to play these teams closely a good bit. We have been so close to beating UGA a number of times in the last 10 years that, while I don't expect to beat them every time, I think we should have beaten them a few (maybe 35% or so). Recruiting rankings aren't everything, and the difference between a 5* and a 3* is not a 40% better player. We shouldn't expect to beat these teams all the time or every year, but based on the last 30 years of the GT program, I think it is reasonable to expect to beat UGA, Miami, and VT at a better rate than we have been lately.

(That said, the rate we have been beating teams like Clemson and UNC is probably unrealistically high, so it goes both ways.)
 

Brian Johnson

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
362
Location
Kennesaw
You're wrong here with Clemson we have beaten them quite a bit over the past 10-15 years and own them 50-26 in the all time record. They are top 20 every year in recruting
 

Sean311

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,971
Probably because we've beaten the tar out of these teams before and we have consistently close games....this is Georgia Tech not wake forest.
 

Fatmike91

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,266
Location
SW Florida
How many times have we outplayed Clemson over the past few years? Our fair share. And we've won our fair share against them.

How many times have we outplayed VPISU over the last few years and found a way to lose? Why shouldn't we expect to win some of those games?

We outplayed GA last year, should have won that game but we didn't close it out. Why shouldn't we expect to win that game?

We outplayed Miami in 2012 and found a way to lose. Again, why not think we should win that game, and others???

For that matter, we've beaten FSU (are they in your big 4?) our fair share, and we held our own and lost in Charlotte. Do I expect to give them a game if we run into them again next year in the ACC Championship game? Yep.


Yes, I expect to win some of these games. Am I really being unrealistic?


/
 

dressedcheeseside

Helluva Engineer
Messages
14,094
I expect to beat them because that is the point of the competition. If we don't expect to beat them, why show up? Do I realistically believe we will beat them every year? No...but I certainly expect better than our recent results.
That is interesting. Not logical, but interesting.
How many times have we outplayed Clemson over the past few years? Our fair share. And we've won our fair share against them.

How many times have we outplayed VPISU over the last few years and found a way to lose? Why shouldn't we expect to win some of those games?

We outplayed GA last year, should have won that game but we didn't close it out. Why shouldn't we expect to win that game?

We outplayed Miami in 2012 and found a way to lose. Again, why not think we should win that game, and others???

For that matter, we've beaten FSU (are they in your big 4?) our fair share, and we held our own and lost in Charlotte. Do I expect to give them a game if we run into them again next year in the ACC Championship game? Yep.


Yes, I expect to win some of these games. Am I really being unrealistic?


/
Do you think UGA has 7 x the talent of GT? Afterall, that's what the services say. Maybe all the close calls call into question the talent disparity? Maybe it's not the great divide the services want us to believe? Or maybe CPJ is coaching his butt off? Which is it?

Maybe the real difference in talent is not so much the front line players, but the backups? Maybe football is really a game of attrition and the teams with the best quality depth, depth with little to no drop off when the subs come in are the ones that prevail?

So, in reality, my question to the board is rhetorical (if you didn't guess already). If talent means so much, we should even be close to beating any of these teams. In reality, we beat Clemson a good bit of the time and come super close to all the others. Do we really have #77 talent compared to Uga's #10, Clemson's #17, VT's #22 and Miami's #26? And if the answer is yes, does that even matter?

Also, nobody has answered this: why do we get no credit for demolishing Syracuse, a team the services say has better talent than us (albeit only ever so slightly)?
 

GT_Inta-neer

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
31
I have been saying this for a while. College football is not a level playing field anymore. I don't expect to beat most SEC or Big 10 teams. They don't play in the same league as the ACC. Now, I do expect to beat the teams in the ACC. These are our direct competition and if there is a talent gap it needs to be closed. Clempsun and VT have had a good run lately, I don't really believe it will last forever. VT has been better longer due to stability of the coaching combined with good teams, but I think they are starting to drop off now, they are getting good defensive players but the offense there seems to be shaky (unless it is their giant QB playing GT). Clempsun's getting good recruits right now, but eventually it will turn for them and we might move up a bit. Winning does a good bit of getting recruits. That is gonna be the argument from many that if we can't compete with the factories because of their players then we need to get better players, but I for one don't want to do what those "schools" do to get those players.
 

Jerry the Jacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,901
Location
Chapin, SC
Those 4 teams are really not that big. Miami was big in the 80's and some of the 90's. They are vastly over rated year after year much like Notre Dame becasue our lazy media places them on a pedestal year after year even though they are really just an above average program. Va. Tech is a program in decline. They really never reached the top and had one great year with Michael Vick but since then have not even sniffed the crystal trophy. Clemson we own pretty much. We have lost a few we could have and should have won but on the whole we do well against Clemson.

Georgia is vastly over rated. They have not sniffed a National Championship since 1980. Hell we won in 1990 and have 3 others to beat our chest about plus a ton more tradition and history than Georgia. Georgia is one of the most underachieving programs in the history of the sport. Why we can not beat them is a mystery to me. I think our guys just don't believe they can beat them and our coach needs his *** kicked for allowing that mental condition to permeate the program.

That is why I don't think it is crazy for us to expect to be competitive every time we take the field with these 4 teams and to win our fair share.

Go Jackets!
 

Bigb

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
395
I don't expect to beat the "big 4" every time out. That's crazy.

I do think1-15 against them is poor and expect more than that.
 

dressedcheeseside

Helluva Engineer
Messages
14,094
Those 4 teams are really not that big. Miami was big in the 80's and some of the 90's. They are vastly over rated year after year much like Notre Dame becasue our lazy media places them on a pedestal year after year even though they are really just an above average program. Va. Tech is a program in decline. They really never reached the top and had one great year with Michael Vick but since then have not even sniffed the crystal trophy. Clemson we own pretty much. We have lost a few we could have and should have won but on the whole we do well against Clemson.

Georgia is vastly over rated. They have not sniffed a National Championship since 1980. Hell we won in 1990 and have 3 others to beat our chest about plus a ton more tradition and history than Georgia. Georgia is one of the most underachieving programs in the history of the sport. Why we can not beat them is a mystery to me. I think our guys just don't believe they can beat them and our coach needs his *** kicked for allowing that mental condition to permeate the program.

That is why I don't think it is crazy for us to expect to be competitive every time we take the field with these 4 teams and to win our fair share.

Go Jackets!
So you're saying the talent differential suggested by recruiting rankings is either meaningless or hogwash? Let's be clear. The ranking differential is HUGE.
 

dressedcheeseside

Helluva Engineer
Messages
14,094
I don't expect to beat the "big 4" every time out. That's crazy.

I do think1-15 against them is poor and expect more than that.
So you're saying we should get lucky every one in 5, one in 4, what? It has to be luck, too, because according to the services, we don't even belong on the same field with them.
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
10,004
Location
Williamsburg Virginia
I have been saying this for a while. College football is not a level playing field anymore. I don't expect to beat most SEC or Big 10 teams. They don't play in the same league as the ACC. Now, I do expect to beat the teams in the ACC. These are our direct competition and if there is a talent gap it needs to be closed. Clempsun and VT have had a good run lately, I don't really believe it will last forever. VT has been better longer due to stability of the coaching combined with good teams, but I think they are starting to drop off now, they are getting good defensive players but the offense there seems to be shaky (unless it is their giant QB playing GT). Clempsun's getting good recruits right now, but eventually it will turn for them and we might move up a bit. Winning does a good bit of getting recruits. That is gonna be the argument from many that if we can't compete with the factories because of their players then we need to get better players, but I for one don't want to do what those "schools" do to get those players.

I just finished reading the book "Dodd's Luck". Great book but very depressing for me at the end about us getting out of the SEC. The stated reason was that other SEC schools were recruiting lots of players and then cutting them by the end of the season. But Dodd also said this:
"The state universities have all the big advantages. Hell, they can get any boy in the state to their school. The mothers went there, the sisters went there, the girls went there. ....." and "If we had stayed in the conference, hell, all the SEC teams would've been beating us , except Vanderbilt and Tulane. So it wasn't getting out of the SEC that hurt us. It was the quality of football." He knew he couldn't compete in the recruiting wars and he was a football God.

We haven't been able to compete against the good teams consistently since the 50's because we can't recruit like them. Dodd knew the tide had turned. Baswed on recent recruiting and team play, I think we are 80%+ likely to lose to UGAg and Clemson this year. Miami maybe only 65% likely since they lost their QB. VT we should beat this year (should have won last year) since they haven't been recruiting well the last 5 years (Scout 36, 34, 26, 36, 39 from 2014 to 2010).
 

Bigb

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
395
So you're saying we should get lucky every one in 5, one in 4, what? It has to be luck, too, because according to the services, we don't even belong on the same field with them.

I thought the option was the great talent neutralizer? Is it not? Why are we using it then?
 
Top