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Where We Stand (PPDvPwr5 edition)
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<blockquote data-quote="AE 87" data-source="post: 795478" data-attributes="member: 195"><p>Again, I don't want to get into old debates about our last coach. So, I waited a few days to clear up some possible misunderstandings of this stat. The basic premise is that the best teams are the teams whose offense scores more than their defense allows. </p><p></p><p>Now, it may happen that some games are won or lost by defensive or special teams scores, but those games are more the exception than the rule. Generally speaking, we see the impact of good play on Special Teams in how it makes it easier for the offense to score or the defense to prevent scoring.</p><p></p><p>So, I've put together a table for the 2020 season comparing the CFP Rankings with two rankings using my PPDvPwr5 stat, Diff PPD (OffPPD-DefPPD) and Ratio PPD (OffPPD/DefPPD). I've also included the AP and Coach's Poll Rankings.</p><p></p><p>There are some teams, like Coastal Carolina, which will not show up in my rankings because they played too few games against Pwr5 opponents.</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>Top 25</td><td>CFP</td><td>Diff PPD</td><td>RatioPPD</td><td>AP</td><td>Coach's</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Alabama</td><td>Alabama</td><td>Alabama</td><td>Alabama</td><td>Alabama</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Clemson</td><td>Clemson</td><td>Clemson</td><td>Ohio State</td><td>Ohio State</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Ohio State</td><td>Iowa State</td><td>Iowa State</td><td>Clemson</td><td>Clemson</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td>Iowa</td><td>Texas A&M</td><td>Texas A&M</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Texas A&M</td><td>Arizona State</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td>Notre Dame</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td>Ohio State</td><td>Arizona State</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td>Oklahoma</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Florida</td><td>Texas A&M</td><td>Texas A&M</td><td>Georgia</td><td>Georgia</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td>Iowa</td><td>Ohio State</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td>Cincinnati</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Georgia</td><td>Florida</td><td>Northwestern</td><td>Iowa State</td><td>Iowa State</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Iowa State</td><td>Georgia</td><td>Georgia</td><td>Northwestern</td><td>Northwestern</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Indiana</td><td>North Carolina</td><td>Wisconsin</td><td>BYU</td><td>BYU</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Coastal Carolina</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td>Indiana</td><td>Indiana</td><td>Florida</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>North Carolina</td><td>Northwestern</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td>Florida</td><td>Indiana</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>Northwestern</td><td>USC</td><td>Florida</td><td>Coastal Carolina</td><td>Coastal Carolina</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>Iowa</td><td>Indiana</td><td>USC</td><td>Louisiana</td><td>Iowa</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>BYU</td><td>Washington</td><td>North Carolina</td><td>Iowa State</td><td>Louisiana</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>USC</td><td>Wisconsin</td><td>Liberty*</td><td>Liberty</td><td>North Carolina</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Miami</td><td>Texas</td><td>Washington*</td><td>North Carolina</td><td>Liberty</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Louisiana</td><td>Liberty</td><td>Texas</td><td>Texas</td><td>Oklahoma State</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Texas</td><td>Miami (Florida)</td><td>Miami (Florida)</td><td>Oklahoma State</td><td>Texas</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>Oklahoma State</td><td>Oklahoma State</td><td>Oklahoma State</td><td>USC</td><td>USC</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>San José State</td><td>UCLA</td><td>UCLA*</td><td>Miami</td><td>Miami</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>NC State</td><td>Penn State</td><td>Penn State*</td><td>Ball State</td><td>Ball State</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Tulsa</td><td>Utah</td><td>Utah*</td><td>San José State</td><td>San José State</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Oregon</td><td>West Virginia*</td><td>West Virginia*</td><td>Buffalo</td><td>Buffalo</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>North Carolina State*</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></table><p>* indicates that consecutive teams were tied in the ranking</p><p></p><p>Now, I think these comparisons validate the stat. That is to say, since the team rankings derived from OffPPD and DefPPD are largely in line with the major team rankings, it follows that these stats are a decent measure of the offense and defense individually.</p><p></p><p>So, anyway, I do think we can trust the stats from the OP in giving us a good indicator of the strength of our team, and our offense and defense individually, historically, as well as where we stand now in that context.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="AE 87, post: 795478, member: 195"] Again, I don't want to get into old debates about our last coach. So, I waited a few days to clear up some possible misunderstandings of this stat. The basic premise is that the best teams are the teams whose offense scores more than their defense allows. Now, it may happen that some games are won or lost by defensive or special teams scores, but those games are more the exception than the rule. Generally speaking, we see the impact of good play on Special Teams in how it makes it easier for the offense to score or the defense to prevent scoring. So, I've put together a table for the 2020 season comparing the CFP Rankings with two rankings using my PPDvPwr5 stat, Diff PPD (OffPPD-DefPPD) and Ratio PPD (OffPPD/DefPPD). I've also included the AP and Coach's Poll Rankings. There are some teams, like Coastal Carolina, which will not show up in my rankings because they played too few games against Pwr5 opponents. [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Top 25[/TD] [TD]CFP[/TD] [TD]Diff PPD[/TD] [TD]RatioPPD[/TD] [TD]AP[/TD] [TD]Coach's[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Alabama[/TD] [TD]Alabama[/TD] [TD]Alabama[/TD] [TD]Alabama[/TD] [TD]Alabama[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Clemson[/TD] [TD]Clemson[/TD] [TD]Clemson[/TD] [TD]Ohio State[/TD] [TD]Ohio State[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Ohio State[/TD] [TD]Iowa State[/TD] [TD]Iowa State[/TD] [TD]Clemson[/TD] [TD]Clemson[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Notre Dame[/TD] [TD]Oklahoma[/TD] [TD]Iowa[/TD] [TD]Texas A&M[/TD] [TD]Texas A&M[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Texas A&M[/TD] [TD]Arizona State[/TD] [TD]Oklahoma[/TD] [TD]Notre Dame[/TD] [TD]Notre Dame[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Oklahoma[/TD] [TD]Ohio State[/TD] [TD]Arizona State[/TD] [TD]Oklahoma[/TD] [TD]Oklahoma[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Florida[/TD] [TD]Texas A&M[/TD] [TD]Texas A&M[/TD] [TD]Georgia[/TD] [TD]Georgia[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Cincinnati[/TD] [TD]Iowa[/TD] [TD]Ohio State[/TD] [TD]Cincinnati[/TD] [TD]Cincinnati[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Georgia[/TD] [TD]Florida[/TD] [TD]Northwestern[/TD] [TD]Iowa State[/TD] [TD]Iowa State[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Iowa State[/TD] [TD]Georgia[/TD] [TD]Georgia[/TD] [TD]Northwestern[/TD] [TD]Northwestern[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]Indiana[/TD] [TD]North Carolina[/TD] [TD]Wisconsin[/TD] [TD]BYU[/TD] [TD]BYU[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]Coastal Carolina[/TD] [TD]Notre Dame[/TD] [TD]Indiana[/TD] [TD]Indiana[/TD] [TD]Florida[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]North Carolina[/TD] [TD]Northwestern[/TD] [TD]Notre Dame[/TD] [TD]Florida[/TD] [TD]Indiana[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]14[/TD] [TD]Northwestern[/TD] [TD]USC[/TD] [TD]Florida[/TD] [TD]Coastal Carolina[/TD] [TD]Coastal Carolina[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]Iowa[/TD] [TD]Indiana[/TD] [TD]USC[/TD] [TD]Louisiana[/TD] [TD]Iowa[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16[/TD] [TD]BYU[/TD] [TD]Washington[/TD] [TD]North Carolina[/TD] [TD]Iowa State[/TD] [TD]Louisiana[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]USC[/TD] [TD]Wisconsin[/TD] [TD]Liberty*[/TD] [TD]Liberty[/TD] [TD]North Carolina[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]Miami[/TD] [TD]Texas[/TD] [TD]Washington*[/TD] [TD]North Carolina[/TD] [TD]Liberty[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]Louisiana[/TD] [TD]Liberty[/TD] [TD]Texas[/TD] [TD]Texas[/TD] [TD]Oklahoma State[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]Texas[/TD] [TD]Miami (Florida)[/TD] [TD]Miami (Florida)[/TD] [TD]Oklahoma State[/TD] [TD]Texas[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]21[/TD] [TD]Oklahoma State[/TD] [TD]Oklahoma State[/TD] [TD]Oklahoma State[/TD] [TD]USC[/TD] [TD]USC[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]22[/TD] [TD]San José State[/TD] [TD]UCLA[/TD] [TD]UCLA*[/TD] [TD]Miami[/TD] [TD]Miami[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]23[/TD] [TD]NC State[/TD] [TD]Penn State[/TD] [TD]Penn State*[/TD] [TD]Ball State[/TD] [TD]Ball State[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]24[/TD] [TD]Tulsa[/TD] [TD]Utah[/TD] [TD]Utah*[/TD] [TD]San José State[/TD] [TD]San José State[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]Oregon[/TD] [TD]West Virginia*[/TD] [TD]West Virginia*[/TD] [TD]Buffalo[/TD] [TD]Buffalo[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]North Carolina State*[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] * indicates that consecutive teams were tied in the ranking Now, I think these comparisons validate the stat. That is to say, since the team rankings derived from OffPPD and DefPPD are largely in line with the major team rankings, it follows that these stats are a decent measure of the offense and defense individually. So, anyway, I do think we can trust the stats from the OP in giving us a good indicator of the strength of our team, and our offense and defense individually, historically, as well as where we stand now in that context. [/QUOTE]
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