What will be GT Baseball's Regular Season Winning Percentage? (Poll)

[GTNavyNuke]

What's your guess as to the winning percentage we'll have this regular season? We've had a discussion about how unknowable the end of the season and post-season rankings. I agree that is a fool's errand (not that that stops me).

But predicting the percentage of wins in the regular season should be more doable since we have 55 games scheduled. Given COVID and weather, I figured just the winning percentage was better since we are unlikely to play 55 games.

Answer the poll which closes opening day. And give a three decimal place guess. The winner gets off-season acclaim.

I've got .635 overall (35-20). For the ACC .567 (17-13). Unfortunately that is lower than I'd like. But looking at the individual games and our performance last year, even with substantial OOC improvement and Quad 2, 3 and 4 improvement it's all I can realistically see. I think we'll be a good bit better mid-week with more pitching depth.

It's just that I can't say our weekend starters are going to be that dominant based on last year or summer ball.I hope we use the regular season more for player development for the postseason.

Prove me wrong

 

[THWG]

What's your guess as to the winning percentage we'll have this regular season? We've had a discussion about how unknowable the end of the season and post-season rankings. I agree that is a fool's errand (not that that stops me).

But predicting the percentage of wins in the regular season should be more doable since we have 55 games scheduled. Given COVID and weather, I figured just the winning percentage was better since we are unlikely to play 55 games.

Answer the poll which closes opening day. And give a three decimal place guess. The winner gets off-season acclaim.

I've got .635 overall (35-20). For the ACC .567 (17-13). Unfortunately that is lower than I'd like. But looking at the individual games and our performance last year, even with substantial OOC improvement and Quad 2, 3 and 4 improvement it's all I can realistically see. I think we'll be a good bit better mid-week with more pitching depth.

It's just that I can't say our weekend starters are going to be that dominant based on last year or summer ball.I hope we use the regular season more for player development for the postseason.

Prove me wrong

I put 65-70. I really think our offense alone can get us to that mark, but I believe the pitching will be vastly improved. Maxwell will be in his 3rd year which is when I expect pitchers with his talent to become aces and hopefully Grissom will be healthy for a full year. It's also going to be huge to have a healthy Roedig back ad then you have solid, veteran arms like Crawford, Bartnicki, McNamee and Huff that can all be starters or give us great bullpen depth.

Edit: I forgot about Mannelly, Smith, and Siegel in the pen as well. They have all shown flashes of being shutdown arms.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I won't put up the picture of Charlie Brown and Lucy. But that is what is embedded in my thinking till something changes on the field.

We've got great pitching depth, but will we use it? And our weekend starters are unproven especially for high pitch count consistency. Maxwell is my biggest concern and there is a probably reason he was a reliever in Cape Cod last summer with a 6 ERA. I've seen us ride pitchers too long waiting for them to develop. But this year will be different hopefully. I won't be surprised for Bartnicki, Roedig and Grissom to be our weekend starters by mid-season. But I have no idea how they came out of the holiday shutdown and are throwing now.

But we should have plenty of run support against non-Quad 1 teams. Here's how I'm breaking down Quads based on RPI ranking (actually how Warren Nolan does);

And here's how we did last year and what I'm assuming in general this year. We'll be better mid-week where most non-quad 1 games are scheduled since we have better pitching depth.

Quad	2021 RPI Quad performance	General guess 2022 Quad
1​	46%​	Case basis
2​	63%​	70%​
3​	25%​	75%​
4​	60%​	80%​

At some point, I'll share the game details of my guess. It is just a Wild *** Guess on a structured and game by game level of detail.

 

[901jacket]

I won't put up the picture of Charlie Brown and Lucy. But that is what is embedded in my thinking till something changes on the field.

We've got great pitching depth, but will we use it? And our weekend starters are unproven especially for high pitch count consistency. Maxwell is my biggest concern and there is a probably reason he was a reliever in Cape Cod last summer with a 6 ERA. I've seen us ride pitchers too long waiting for them to develop. But this year will be different hopefully. I won't be surprised for Bartnicki, Roedig and Grissom to be our weekend starters by mid-season. But I have no idea how they came out of the holiday shutdown and are throwing now.

But we should have plenty of run support against non-Quad 1 teams. Here's how I'm breaking down Quads based on RPI ranking (actually how Warren Nolan does);
View attachment 12042
And here's how we did last year and what I'm assuming in general this year. We'll be better mid-week where most non-quad 1 games are scheduled since we have better pitching depth.

Quad	2021 RPI Quad performance	General guess 2022 Quad
1​	46%​	Case basis
2​	63%​	70%​
3​	25%​	75%​
4​	60%​	80%​

At some point, I'll share the game details of my guess. It is just a Wild *** Guess on a structured and game by game level of detail.

The quad 3 number is obviously an outlier I’m guessing based on a very small sample size but would like to see a better Q1 number. Seems like if we’re going to be a top team, gotta do better against the top teams.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The quad 3 number is obviously an outlier I’m guessing based on a very small sample size but would like to see a better Q1 number. Seems like if we’re going to be a top team, gotta do better against the top teams.

It was. But I'm guessing better in all quads this year than last. That 101 non-conference RPI was a killer for post season seeding. https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2021/schedule/Georgia-Tech

We will be better. How much?

19 days to opening pitch.

 

[GTRambler]

Well, I voted 55 <60%, about the same as last year’s mark.

Frankly, at this point in the preseason, the team’s pitching is simply a huge question mark.

 

[FredJacket]

34-18 (~65%)

18-11 in ACC (1 weather cancelation)
16-7 OoC (2 weather cancelations)

I hope we can be better than that.

 

[GTRambler]

I put 65-70. I really think our offense alone can get us to that mark, but I believe the pitching will be vastly improved. Maxwell will be in his 3rd year which is when I expect pitchers with his talent to become aces and hopefully Grissom will be healthy for a full year. It's also going to be huge to have a healthy Roedig back ad then you have solid, veteran arms like Crawford, Bartnicki, McNamee and Huff that can all be starters or give us great bullpen depth.

Edit: I forgot about Mannelly, Smith, and Siegel in the pen as well. They have all shown flashes of being shutdown arms.

I hope you’re right! I’d be exhilarated if our pitching truly improves and the team hits 65%. It means we’ll win a Regional and advance to Omaha!

Fingers crossed!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

34-18 (~65%)

18-11 in ACC (1 weather cancelation)
16-7 OoC (2 weather cancelations)

I hope we can be better than that.

Not a bad guess. I like to be wrong on a more detailed level though (tic). Here's my way of getting to 64%. It was an interesting way for me to think about who we have to play and where.

As I said above, I think we'll do better OOC based on more pitching depth for the mid-week games. But as @GTRambler said, it all depends on the quality of pitching is a huge question mark.