D-man44
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What is Josh Pastner's Ceiling?
- Thread starter MtnWasp
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yjfan
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I like that pastner makes changes (for the better) on the fly- see last year after hawaii, and this year.
I think the top tier acc( Duke,UNC, and virginia) stay the same for now. But if follow the get old stay old philosophy we should be in the top of the 2nd teir- fs,syracuse, notre dame, louisvelle. with the postionng changing. Sprinkle in a GA one and done here and there for an elite 8 or more run, but i think we can be a fairly consistent 2 out of 3/4 years a tourney team. Our recruiting keeps improving- which creates momentium, and a snowball effect
I think the top tier acc( Duke,UNC, and virginia) stay the same for now. But if follow the get old stay old philosophy we should be in the top of the 2nd teir- fs,syracuse, notre dame, louisvelle. with the postionng changing. Sprinkle in a GA one and done here and there for an elite 8 or more run, but i think we can be a fairly consistent 2 out of 3/4 years a tourney team. Our recruiting keeps improving- which creates momentium, and a snowball effect
smokey_wasp
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Josh is a tough coach to evaluate with an uneven career trajectory. I don't think he has hit his ceiling. Hopefully we have seen his floor.
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Here are my thoughts.
If none of the 3 outstanding players return then i think it is unlikely this team will be over .500 ACC record and is unlikely to be an NCAA Tourney team. This would be the scenario where the 2019 misses hurt the most.
if just one of the three return (Devoe most likely) then I think this is a team that finishes right around .500 and is a bubble NCAA team.
If 2 of the 3 return I think next year's squad should be expected to finish at least .500 in the conference, likely better and a probably NCAA team.
If all 3 were to return this team should be one one of the top 3-4 in the conference and not only make the NCAA Tourney but make some noise once it gets there.
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I don't think Pastner has reached his ceiling.
My gut is he should be a coach that can consistently finish in the top 7 of the conference and make the Tourney 2 out of every 3 years. His ability to change things up both offensively and defensively over the 5 years he has been at GT and even within years suggests his ceiling may be even higher than that if he keeps learning and growing as a coach.
i think we will find out over the next 2-3 years.
Also, if his floor is having 2 losing seasons in 12 seasons as a HC and them coming in two years where basically everything went wrong both internally and externally, that is not a horrible floor.
My gut is he should be a coach that can consistently finish in the top 7 of the conference and make the Tourney 2 out of every 3 years. His ability to change things up both offensively and defensively over the 5 years he has been at GT and even within years suggests his ceiling may be even higher than that if he keeps learning and growing as a coach.
i think we will find out over the next 2-3 years.
Also, if his floor is having 2 losing seasons in 12 seasons as a HC and them coming in two years where basically everything went wrong both internally and externally, that is not a horrible floor.
MtnWasp
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If you want some bold, semi-ignorant predictions, then I'm your guy!
I think it is fair to say that for GT hoops, Bobby Cremins set the bar. So, what are those measures:
Cremins coached at GT for 19 seasons
He was 354-237 overall (.599)
He was 134- 153 in the ACC (.467)
He won the ACC regular season title twice
He won the ACCT championship 3 times (1985 was the one year he won both the CC regular season and the Tournament).
He went to the NCAAT nine consecutive years and Ten times total (he went only once in his last 7 seasons).
Cremins made the Final 4 once, The Great 8 once, the Sweet 16 3 times (meaning he got us to t least the second weekend 5 times)
So, which of these benchmarks will Pastner surpass and which will he fail to reach:
The lowest hanging fruit here is ACC winning percentage (.467). Pastner is already at .458. While I think that fans tend to overstate the superiority of play back in the 80's compared to now, I think that Pastner finds himself in an ACC in transition with the once dominant Duke and Carolina programs no longer dominant. The statistical probability that Hubert Davis just picks up where Roy Williams left off is not good. Krzyzewski couldn't resist turning his proud Duke program into a minor league franchise for the NBA which will turn out to be a destabilizing decision, especially with the emergence of the G-League. And K is flat out old.
FSU and UVA are the standard bearers now, and they are good. Chris Mack has a better than good chance to fill a void at the top. But Pastner has the opportunity to establish himself as a top tier regular moving forward. Cremins held to his approach in teh face of a changing lanscape and sagging results. Pastner seems far more adaptable and nimble, and his schemes are more sophisticated. That indicates to me that he won't let a changing landscape roll over him.
I think Pastner ends his tenure at GT with the best ACC winning percentage, by a wide margin.
Pastner will also surpass 134 ACC wins before he is done at GT. For the same reasons stated above as well as 20 conference games per season, this record will fall, and fall hard.
Coaching at one school for 19 years is unusual these days. He is still young, and if he maintains short term success, it increases the probability of sustaining his program long term and reduces the probability that he would want to leave on his own. He has a legit shot here.
The ACC titles that Cremins amassed is vulnerable if Pastner stays long enough and UVA doesn't put a stranglehold on the conference. This one is a coin flip.
354 total wins and an overall winning percentage of .599 will be tougher. The expanded conference slate makes a high overall winning percentage harder to achieve. And while the ACC may not be quite as competitive as it was in the 80s and early 90s, there is still substantial parity as well as parity over the industry at large. That means amassing those sub-10 loss seasons is problematic.
To pass 354 wins, Pastner would have to win 20 games per season for 14 seasons. Does that happen? He'd have to show great staying power to pull it off.
Even less probable is the Ten NCAAT appearances. In this day and age, this is a tough, tough benchmark to reach. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see Pastner advance to more than three Sweet 16s.
9 consecutive NCAAT seems near impossible to me. Even if Pastner consistently fields strong teams, to have everything go right to get hat done is highly unlikely.
I think it is fair to say that for GT hoops, Bobby Cremins set the bar. So, what are those measures:
Cremins coached at GT for 19 seasons
He was 354-237 overall (.599)
He was 134- 153 in the ACC (.467)
He won the ACC regular season title twice
He won the ACCT championship 3 times (1985 was the one year he won both the CC regular season and the Tournament).
He went to the NCAAT nine consecutive years and Ten times total (he went only once in his last 7 seasons).
Cremins made the Final 4 once, The Great 8 once, the Sweet 16 3 times (meaning he got us to t least the second weekend 5 times)
So, which of these benchmarks will Pastner surpass and which will he fail to reach:
The lowest hanging fruit here is ACC winning percentage (.467). Pastner is already at .458. While I think that fans tend to overstate the superiority of play back in the 80's compared to now, I think that Pastner finds himself in an ACC in transition with the once dominant Duke and Carolina programs no longer dominant. The statistical probability that Hubert Davis just picks up where Roy Williams left off is not good. Krzyzewski couldn't resist turning his proud Duke program into a minor league franchise for the NBA which will turn out to be a destabilizing decision, especially with the emergence of the G-League. And K is flat out old.
FSU and UVA are the standard bearers now, and they are good. Chris Mack has a better than good chance to fill a void at the top. But Pastner has the opportunity to establish himself as a top tier regular moving forward. Cremins held to his approach in teh face of a changing lanscape and sagging results. Pastner seems far more adaptable and nimble, and his schemes are more sophisticated. That indicates to me that he won't let a changing landscape roll over him.
I think Pastner ends his tenure at GT with the best ACC winning percentage, by a wide margin.
Pastner will also surpass 134 ACC wins before he is done at GT. For the same reasons stated above as well as 20 conference games per season, this record will fall, and fall hard.
Coaching at one school for 19 years is unusual these days. He is still young, and if he maintains short term success, it increases the probability of sustaining his program long term and reduces the probability that he would want to leave on his own. He has a legit shot here.
The ACC titles that Cremins amassed is vulnerable if Pastner stays long enough and UVA doesn't put a stranglehold on the conference. This one is a coin flip.
354 total wins and an overall winning percentage of .599 will be tougher. The expanded conference slate makes a high overall winning percentage harder to achieve. And while the ACC may not be quite as competitive as it was in the 80s and early 90s, there is still substantial parity as well as parity over the industry at large. That means amassing those sub-10 loss seasons is problematic.
To pass 354 wins, Pastner would have to win 20 games per season for 14 seasons. Does that happen? He'd have to show great staying power to pull it off.
Even less probable is the Ten NCAAT appearances. In this day and age, this is a tough, tough benchmark to reach. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see Pastner advance to more than three Sweet 16s.
9 consecutive NCAAT seems near impossible to me. Even if Pastner consistently fields strong teams, to have everything go right to get hat done is highly unlikely.
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If Pastner coaches here 19 years, I don’t expect it to look at all like Cremins’ time.
He’s shown some ability to be adaptable. That’s a good thing.
- The NCAA seems to be chasing money harder than ever
- The NCAA is less popular than ever, at least with Congress
- Fans seems to be shifting more towards paying players. NIL may just be the start
- There are fewer fans in the stands, and even the big programs are feeling it
- It’s all about getting to the tournament, so you’re better being an 700 pound gorilla in a 400 pound SunBelt conference than an 800 pound gorilla in a 900 pound ACC
- Even with the mid-majors, the gap between the haves and the have nots seems big in basketball, too.
He’s shown some ability to be adaptable. That’s a good thing.
gameface
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Like your reply; no need for a long analysis, gets to the point.
InsideLB
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Defensive scheme is effective. Makes adjustments. Players like him/play hard for him. Guys develop in the program. Seems like a good fit for the Institute. If recruiting continues to be good there is no reason we can't be one of the better teams in the league. Never know how it will go though.
Fatmike91
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I believe CJP pre-season decision making has been very poor. If not addressed, I think this is a big enough issue to limit his ceiling as a coach.
We can cite the willingness to change the offense last year after the Hawaii tournament as a positive. I actually view is as a huge negative. What the heck were we doing trying to run our offense through a big on the top of the post after Lammers graduated??? I get that we recruited a big (Saba) with similar skills, but Saba is (still) a year away from playing. CJP made a decision to come into the year with that as our offense. Sorry, that is an awful maybe even career ending decision. He got lucky that the team bounced back the way we did. We should have come into the season with a completely different scheme.
This year we decide to have non-contact practices. LOL. Nearly ruined our best year in a decade. I'm glad he didn't wait until late December to make a change.
These are two really bad decisions that were made pre-season. Going forward I believe CJP's ceiling is directly related to the pre-season planning.
/
We can cite the willingness to change the offense last year after the Hawaii tournament as a positive. I actually view is as a huge negative. What the heck were we doing trying to run our offense through a big on the top of the post after Lammers graduated??? I get that we recruited a big (Saba) with similar skills, but Saba is (still) a year away from playing. CJP made a decision to come into the year with that as our offense. Sorry, that is an awful maybe even career ending decision. He got lucky that the team bounced back the way we did. We should have come into the season with a completely different scheme.
This year we decide to have non-contact practices. LOL. Nearly ruined our best year in a decade. I'm glad he didn't wait until late December to make a change.
These are two really bad decisions that were made pre-season. Going forward I believe CJP's ceiling is directly related to the pre-season planning.
/
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My view on this has always been that since the coach owns responsibility for the bad, they also get credit for the good.
Sure, I would have preferred that the Offense looked better earlier, but you don't just rebuild the scheme, in season, without having a coaching staff that is both a solid tactical planning and capable teaching unit.
Same deal with the pre-season covid handling. I mean, we saw what happened when we lost Moses post ACC Championship. There was a lot of chatter nationally about our aggressive approach to trying to avoid getting it or losing practice time and while the short term pain we got early season was a headache, the longer term management and avoidance until almost the end of the post season shows what could have happened had we lost guys mid-season.
I don't think it is fair to throw the Covid Craziness on to the staff. No one knew what or how it was going to go so I appreciate they were risk adverse, then changed tactics when they saw data points showing them it wasn't working. Again, same point stands for me, if they get dinged for being on the "wrong foot" by not practicing with contact then they should also get the benefit of being able to right the ship once they switched plans.
As others have hinted, I think the first step for Pastner to get to the next level is to perform consistently in the non-conference schedule. Even in the years where we have been above .500 in the ACC, bad losses in our non-conference schedule have killed our NCAA resume. Need to clean that up. While it is good that we regularly show improvement as the season goes along, the good teams can operate effectively straight from the jump.
Fatmike91
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Poor pre-season planning results in a bad start to the season in the non-conference schedule.
Two years in a row now is a trend.
/
lv20gt
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lol what is this nonsense? A coach deciding to run the offense he has spent the last two years implementing and practicing for instead of completely scrapping it for an entirely new scheme is nowhere near a career ending decision. Even moreso considering the scheme issues were easily secondary to the fact we were without our starting PG for the majority of the first half of the year and were also down another player who would be our starter the rest of the way.
Blaming the issues we had against State and Mercer on a week of non contact practices is silly considering the amount of experience we had. The team came out without the fire and energy that it had either at the end of the previous year or later on. For a young team, sure, the non contact practices could have that effect. There is little reason to blame that for a team with as much experience as we had.
And in general the plan we had was designed to help prevent the exact situation we saw multiple teams throughout the year have of long stretches of covid pauses that could equally derail a season.
gtg771r
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In today's world a Final Four
MisfitRoxx
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Josh Pastner is a good dude.
I liked him when he was coaching my favorite school, the University of Memphis...and I still like him, even after he left.
He saw us through a very rough patch after John Calipari stared at a camera crew...and told us that he was happy at Memphis, and that Memphis was where he wanted to be.
The next moment...he's tweeting that he took the Kentucky job, we find out that he took the majority of our highly recruited/anticipated recruiting class with him.
Josh ran into problems at Memphis that started to affect his recruiting prowess. He was not advancing far enough into the NCAA tournament..some of our players were put off by his "aw shucks" demeanor...some publicly disrespected him. With those disappointing results, the highly ranked Memphis recruits started going other places.
I was hoping he could get another year to see if he could turn it around here...but I guess things happened the way they were meant to.
You folks have a good man in place. Now that some of the ACC heavyweight coaches are retiring...I think that Tech has a better chance of not just contending for an ACC tourney title...but a division title...NCAA lock year in/year out.
When I am not cheering Memphis on...I try to watch as many Tech games as I can...because I still believe in Josh.
I liked him when he was coaching my favorite school, the University of Memphis...and I still like him, even after he left.
He saw us through a very rough patch after John Calipari stared at a camera crew...and told us that he was happy at Memphis, and that Memphis was where he wanted to be.
The next moment...he's tweeting that he took the Kentucky job, we find out that he took the majority of our highly recruited/anticipated recruiting class with him.
Josh ran into problems at Memphis that started to affect his recruiting prowess. He was not advancing far enough into the NCAA tournament..some of our players were put off by his "aw shucks" demeanor...some publicly disrespected him. With those disappointing results, the highly ranked Memphis recruits started going other places.
I was hoping he could get another year to see if he could turn it around here...but I guess things happened the way they were meant to.
You folks have a good man in place. Now that some of the ACC heavyweight coaches are retiring...I think that Tech has a better chance of not just contending for an ACC tourney title...but a division title...NCAA lock year in/year out.
When I am not cheering Memphis on...I try to watch as many Tech games as I can...because I still believe in Josh.