What is Josh Pastner's Ceiling?
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I think we have not peaked. It seems like the core group of guys play with passion and maximum defensive effort. I think we should expect (as a program) to be a regular top 4 ACC Team.. Winning the conference is tough, but I think we should expect to be making noise. I also think as some of the old heads in the conference retire CJP will find himself as a more tenured and established coach in a Killer city, with Access to many additional benefits (read CGC's twitter feed to learn more). We should be able to get back to being at or near the top of conference regularly if we stick to the script and keep this identity on Defense.
Defense is about effort, Offense is about talent and I believe we are on the upward trajectory with our future classes.
No he hasn't.
History disagrees with me, but I still believe GT is a program capable of succeeding at a high level on a consistent basis.
If he hits his ceiling, that'll be the result. If things continue to break our way, Pastner's on his way to doing that. So, I don't think he's hit his ceiling but appears to be headed in the right direction.
lv20gt
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I don't think we really have any way of judging the ceiling at this point.
The first job Pastner had when taking over was to build a team to get back to the NCAAT. He's done that. Not the smoothest, nor the quickest, but he achieved it in a pretty reasonable timeframe.
Next step isn't a one year thing but rather proving that he has the program at the level of being a consistent NCAAT team to the point where we should have reasonable expectations of making the tournament regardless of roster turnover. We really haven't had a chance to do that and will either this year or next to some degree. That takes recruiting from a "take the best you can and adapt" to "have a plan and be able to recruit to that plan" phase. Now without having too much of an idea of exactly what Pastner wants to do going forward, it's hard to judge how the recruiting fits long terms. I do like the seemingly consistent focus on having multiple ball handlers. On the other hand our big man recruiting still seems sort of get what we can rather than having a particular style that we are looking for.
So I don't know what his ceiling is nor do I think we've enough evidence to say he's reached it. Which is the second best case behind knowing the ceiling and it being a national championship in my opinion.
The first job Pastner had when taking over was to build a team to get back to the NCAAT. He's done that. Not the smoothest, nor the quickest, but he achieved it in a pretty reasonable timeframe.
Next step isn't a one year thing but rather proving that he has the program at the level of being a consistent NCAAT team to the point where we should have reasonable expectations of making the tournament regardless of roster turnover. We really haven't had a chance to do that and will either this year or next to some degree. That takes recruiting from a "take the best you can and adapt" to "have a plan and be able to recruit to that plan" phase. Now without having too much of an idea of exactly what Pastner wants to do going forward, it's hard to judge how the recruiting fits long terms. I do like the seemingly consistent focus on having multiple ball handlers. On the other hand our big man recruiting still seems sort of get what we can rather than having a particular style that we are looking for.
So I don't know what his ceiling is nor do I think we've enough evidence to say he's reached it. Which is the second best case behind knowing the ceiling and it being a national championship in my opinion.
senoiajacket
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The plan for big men >> in Rev we trust!!
YlJacket
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We don't know the answer but he has shown enough that he should get the opportunity to prove what the ceiling is (contract extension) while GT has the opportunity to get out for a reasonable amount if it doesn't work (buyout). If it works his next agreement is a top part of the ACC commitment.
CJP went through a lot of projects to get to a legit NCAA level roster. While we focus on Moses and Jose (project to a lesser extent) as success stories it doesn't change that there are a lot of Didenkos, Prices and others on the wayside that didn't work. It seems that the days of looking for non ACC level diamonds in the rough are over so now can we develop legit talent to high ACC standard? He gets to prove it or not.
Personally I like him (from afar) though I am still put off by some of the naive stuff he did. So happy to simply go along for the ride over the next couple of years to find out.
CJP went through a lot of projects to get to a legit NCAA level roster. While we focus on Moses and Jose (project to a lesser extent) as success stories it doesn't change that there are a lot of Didenkos, Prices and others on the wayside that didn't work. It seems that the days of looking for non ACC level diamonds in the rough are over so now can we develop legit talent to high ACC standard? He gets to prove it or not.
Personally I like him (from afar) though I am still put off by some of the naive stuff he did. So happy to simply go along for the ride over the next couple of years to find out.
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It depends on the staff he can bring together and evolve over time (he only gets three assistants, and they retire or get HC gigs, etc.). It depends on how he evolves his game philosophy over time. For example, as much as I like our defense, I’d love if we could steal from Moser.
From what I’ve seen, he’s a friendly, genuine, good hearted guy who treats his players well. He knows a little about basketball. He can grow from there. The key is to keep growing every year.
He can get at least as good as Hamilton at FSU. Can he get to UVA or better, year over year?
From what I’ve seen, he’s a friendly, genuine, good hearted guy who treats his players well. He knows a little about basketball. He can grow from there. The key is to keep growing every year.
He can get at least as good as Hamilton at FSU. Can he get to UVA or better, year over year?
augustabuzz
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Gypsum ?
Jacketman99
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I don't think we can say what his ceiling is. Pastner is still a young coach who has shown the willingness to adapt. He has shown the willingness to try new things if what he is doing is not working. These are reasons why I am so high on him. I believe he has gone through a lot of growing pains and is now really starting to take root as a successful head coach. He has shown the ability to outscheme hall of fame coaches (see the clinic we ran on Syracuse). If we can consistently pull in talent similar to the last recruiting class we should be perennial top 25 NCAA team.
gt24
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Moser's defense is great for his league and his players. And it can be great in other leagues with other rosters too. But it may not be the optimal approach for more athletic/sizable rosters. I have not looked at Loyola's forced turnover stats, but even if I did I would not trust the "turnovers" stat by itself. A defense like Moser's certainly forces TOs, but it focuses more on forcing plenty of terrible shot selection from undisciplined, impatient teams. Consistently bad shot selection is akin to turnovers.
Many are enamored with the m2m defensive systems of Beard and Drew recently, which are almost the polar opposites of Moser. Moser's could be generically described as "contain and contest, avoid scramble" whereas Beard and Drew would be "pressure, force baseline, scramble". (Way oversimplifying, but not interested in typing out the details.) Each of them proved you can produce a Top ~10 defense even though their m2m philosophies are very different.
Would love to hear from others on how you would describe our m2m last year. This year, I focused much more on the hybrid zone, and I was fairly lazy in analyzing our m2m rules/principles. That said, what I think I saw was about the midpoint of the m2m spectrum between Beard/Drew and Moser. My hunch is that we did not force a lot of turnovers in m2m via hard deny in passing lanes on the perimeter, nor hard hedges or trapping on ball screens. So where did m2m turnovers come from? What I think I saw was that when teams tried to take advantage of size mismatches inside, we were exceptional at weakside help getting deflections and steals. Also, our guards were exceptional on the perimeter when their matchup looked to pass inside. We were really good at being disruptive on the ball to make post entry passes harder. We got perimeter deflections on those entry passes too, but even when we didnt, we made the passes tougher and therefore easier to deflect inside.
I would love love love to see some advanced analytics/stats on our half court defensive forced turnovers this past season. What percent came from hybrid zone? What percent came from m2m? In m2m, what percent came on perimeter vs inside the arc.
iopjacket
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Backstreetbuzz
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I think we can consistently be 4-8 in the ACC, tournament and top 25 most years and an occasional final 8 team.
Root4GT
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Really good question. I think it all depends on consistently bringing in high level talent either from HS or via transfers.
secondly I think the AA needs to make sure his assistants are paid enough not to be poached as assistants at bigger programs.
it seems his teams play hard and our defensive scheme is troubling for a lot of teams.
last year was the first full year we were a very good offensive team since his first year. It will be very telling to see how we preform offensively without Moses and Jose if they do indeed move on.
Good comment earlier about the older ACC coaches retiring. Opportunity will be there as keeping UNC, Duke super elite and Cuse very good with next generation coaches isn’t a sure thing.
secondly I think the AA needs to make sure his assistants are paid enough not to be poached as assistants at bigger programs.
it seems his teams play hard and our defensive scheme is troubling for a lot of teams.
last year was the first full year we were a very good offensive team since his first year. It will be very telling to see how we preform offensively without Moses and Jose if they do indeed move on.
Good comment earlier about the older ACC coaches retiring. Opportunity will be there as keeping UNC, Duke super elite and Cuse very good with next generation coaches isn’t a sure thing.
Vespidae
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Ceiling? Did the Germans have a ceiling when they bombed Pearl Harbor? Did the Yankees have a ceiling when they beat the Patriots? Did Tiger have a ceiling when he won the Pro Bowlers Tour?
It's too early to tell. But should be exciting.
It's too early to tell. But should be exciting.
MtnWasp
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Wasp, well versed in the Classics.
I can understand why, after Hewitt, GT fans would be averse to biting too hard on a coach's success; scarred by the coach that climbed the ladder of success, and promptly took a nose-dive off the top rung.
Let's ask the question more specifically: Let's assume that Moses, Jose and Devoe do NOT come back. that leaves the roster looking like this:
Guards: Sturdivant, Smith, Parham / Coleman, Kelly and Maxwell
Forwards: Usher, K, Moore, J. Moore
Post: Howard, Gigiberia & Meka
Does Pastner take that group and finish with a >.500 ACC record? That would be the third consecutive winning season in the ACC, and that (finishing above .500 in conference for three consecutive seasons) has only happened once since GT joined the ACC.
Does that happen?
SecretAgentBuzz
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That’s a good question. Of course, we have no idea, especially since it remains to be seen the actual talent and skill of many of those players and how they will gel together (which was a HUGE part of this year’s success). But with my limited knowledge, I would guess that this team could hang around .500 in the ACC or maybe be slightly below it. Now, if Usher steps up his game like we all think he can, one of the bigs makes big progress over the offseason and one or two of the freshman come in and play lights out....I can squint and see >.500 and another NCAA tourney berth.
Either way, I am excited for the season and I’ll be cheering them on.
BCJacket
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It would be great if everyone comes back, we'd be stocked. But I don't think it's as important to the future as a lot of people are making it out.
Let's not forget, Moses Wright wasn't 'Moses Wright: ACC POTY' until this year. In 2019, some people on here wanted him benched. Alvaredo has always been a high-effort guy, but two years ago people said he wasn't a legit ACC talent and it would be great if we could get a transfer to replace him as a starter. Before them, it was Lammers, Okogie, Banks, etc we were worried about replacing.
There's guys on the roster with just as high, or higher, talent ceilings. Will they develop into the players and leaders Jose and Moses have become? I don't know. But Pastner and his assistants have shown they can coach guys up and game-coach quite well. It's entirely possible Jose and Moses leave and the team takes a huge step back. It's also (more IMHO) possible that the next guys develop/step-up and continue to build program success.
The program had a lot of issues to fix when Pastner came in - culture, roster, program image. Some of those took even more self-inflicted hits under his watch. The recruiting hasn't always been top-tier, but it's improving. But there's no reason to think Moses and Jose mark the peak of player talent and ability under Pastner. He just signed his best class by far. He's brought in some good transfers. If Pastner and company coach those guys up as well as they have the guys mentioned above, Tech will be a threat in the ACC for a long time.
Let's not forget, Moses Wright wasn't 'Moses Wright: ACC POTY' until this year. In 2019, some people on here wanted him benched. Alvaredo has always been a high-effort guy, but two years ago people said he wasn't a legit ACC talent and it would be great if we could get a transfer to replace him as a starter. Before them, it was Lammers, Okogie, Banks, etc we were worried about replacing.
There's guys on the roster with just as high, or higher, talent ceilings. Will they develop into the players and leaders Jose and Moses have become? I don't know. But Pastner and his assistants have shown they can coach guys up and game-coach quite well. It's entirely possible Jose and Moses leave and the team takes a huge step back. It's also (more IMHO) possible that the next guys develop/step-up and continue to build program success.
The program had a lot of issues to fix when Pastner came in - culture, roster, program image. Some of those took even more self-inflicted hits under his watch. The recruiting hasn't always been top-tier, but it's improving. But there's no reason to think Moses and Jose mark the peak of player talent and ability under Pastner. He just signed his best class by far. He's brought in some good transfers. If Pastner and company coach those guys up as well as they have the guys mentioned above, Tech will be a threat in the ACC for a long time.