We're NCAAT Bound! (maybe)

RonJohn

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"cellebrate", or try to make up the money that the NCAA lost for not having a tournament last year. What would that be a six or seven week tournament? Maybe 75 games the first week and 192 games in week 2? All of that TV money going to the NCAA instead of the conferences?
 

lv20gt

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My best guess at the logic is that inviting everyone is to try and be proactive against possible games being canceled due to COVID hitting teams particularly hard. Imagine you were a bubble team and missed a chance to get one or two more quality wins because your opponents got hit hard by COVID. There would be a lot of pressure from that school to play the games, and would otherwise make selecting the bubble teams a harder process.
 
4shotB

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A quick Google search identified only 4 D1 teams to have been eligible for the big dance and never been invited. Those 4 are Army, Citadel, William & Mary, and St. Francis (NY). Army was invited in '68 but Coach Bobby Knight (ever hear of him?) declined to go to the NIT instead. If this proposal stands, there will be 4 coaches who will make history at their respective institutions. This worthless factoid is brought to you as a public service my friends and is free of charge.

ETA: only 4 who have been eligible for EVERY NCAA tourney. There are more (42 in total) who haven't made it but are later entrants.
 
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CuseJacket

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smokey_wasp said:
We finally have a team that might make it legitimately and it will be rendered meaningless? Ugh!
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This was one of my first thoughts as well. We have a team capable of earning a bid and showing that we're on the uptrend, yet the pub that comes with it might get optically delegitimized.

A counterargument is that it's still within the team's control to just go out and convincingly be a top 25 team. Or, another idea, perhaps they'll seed the first 68 the same way they've done historically, then figure out the rest.
 

seedjckt

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CuseJacket said:
This was one of my first thoughts as well. We have a team capable of earning a bid and showing that we're on the uptrend, yet the pub that comes with it might get optically delegitimized.

A counterargument is that it's still within the team's control to just go out and convincingly be a top 25 team. Or, another idea, perhaps they'll seed the first 68 the same way they've done historically, then figure out the rest.
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just Win Baby!
Make the sweet 16 - All will be good regardless of how many teams are in the tournament!!
 
kg01

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Knowing the NCAASux, this'll be some lame thing like .. "Oh the regular season is the tournament! Every game's important now."

Then the season will be no dang different.
 
GT_EE78

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RonJohn said:
You would have to know how the tournament would be set up first. As soon as you know the number of games involved, it is just probability.
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You could assume that the round of 256 has the 353 teams assigned with the remainder as byes if you wanna try?
 
RonJohn

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GT_EE78 said:
You could assume that the round of 256 has the 353 teams assigned with the remainder as byes if you wanna try?
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Is it 353 or 350? I saw 353 in a news report, but wikipedia lists 350. I'll take a stab at 350.

1st round - 1 game 188 teams = 94 games
2nd round - 2 games 256 teams = 192 games
3rd round - 2 games 64 teams = 48 games
4th round - 2 games 16 teams = 12 games
5th round - 2 games 4 teams = 3 games
Total games = 349 games

Using straight probability and not accounting for seeding probabilities, that would be 1 in 1.15 X 10^105 or 1.15 quattuortrigintillion.
If you try to take into account probabilities involving higher seeded teams, that would drop. However, I don't know that any seeding would actually be done above 64 or maybe 128. How can you determine if a team is the 330th worst team or the 331st worst team. The first several rounds would probably be arranged more to geographic location than to any ranking. If there are 10 or so teams under probation who can't play, or if there are 353 teams, you would divide or multiply by several powers of two. However, with a number that large, it wouldn't make any real difference.
 
RonJohn

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dtm1997 said:
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Could his support be because he is uncertain if Iona will make it back this year under the normal methodology?

EDIT: Also, he probably has a bonus in his contract for making the tournament. This would be an easy way for many NCAA coaches to earn bonuses for nothing.
 

lv20gt

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RonJohn said:
Is it 353 or 350? I saw 353 in a news report, but wikipedia lists 350. I'll take a stab at 350.

1st round - 1 game 188 teams = 94 games
2nd round - 2 games 256 teams = 192 games
3rd round - 2 games 64 teams = 48 games
4th round - 2 games 16 teams = 12 games
5th round - 2 games 4 teams = 3 games
Total games = 349 games
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BTW in a single elim tournament there will always be 1 less game than the number of participants.
 
dtm1997

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RonJohn said:
Could his support be because he is uncertain if Iona will make it back this year under the normal methodology?

EDIT: Also, he probably has a bonus in his contract for making the tournament. This would be an easy way for many NCAA coaches to earn bonuses for nothing.
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My advice is to not overthink Pitino's public statements and just enjoy the ride.
 
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