We would be a Top 25 team this year…

GT33

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Well GT33, why does ESPN give us the 4th hardest SOS in the country then if our conference sucks so bad?
Same thing they did last year. Top 10 hardest schedule ended up being 60th. There's what 65 teams in P5 and we were 5th hardest from the bottom outside of a few non-P5's in there. Why are the experts wrong so often is the question you should be asking.
 

GoldZ

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After watching the bulk of our schedule play the last few days, does anyone believe we have one of the toughest schedules in D-1? uga and Clem make very strong bookends, but the level of play for all but Miami, is...weak imo beyond the first week itis theory.
 
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tomknight

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we’re allowed to still root for gibbs. our own team is doing it too. sims and a few others were wearing bama jerseys to support their friend.

i don’t understand this aggressive mentality like we should just pretend he doesn’t exist.

easy. this thread was not started to say "good for our former guys, they had a good game today". response may different in that scenario.

It says, if only our few good players wouldn't have left us, we'd be a good team. Instead, we'll never win, coaches suck, wah wah wah boo hoo hoo sniffle sniffle.

It is yet another bash the team thread, tho slightly more cleverly phrased.

two days out from opening day, and it is old.
 

InsideLB

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Same thing they did last year. Top 10 hardest schedule ended up being 60th. There's what 65 teams in P5 and we were 5th hardest from the bottom outside of a few non-P5's in there. Why are the experts wrong so often is the question you should be asking.

So far OUR opponents in 2022 are a combined 10-1, with #4 Clemson yet to play. VT was the lone loss after statistically dominating ODU but turning it over 5x and losing by a FG.

Where is the link to the stat you cite from last year? I can't find anything to confirm it's true.

Let's say for the sake of argument the you are right and they WERE wrong about GT's SOS last year. Does that automatically mean they are wrong this year? Or that they are 'so often' wrong as you claim?

I know anecdotally every year we can point to preseason ranked teams that underperformed as glaring examples. But ON THE WHOLE year in and year out are the experts right more than they are wrong and by how much?

I do know there is strong positive correlation between combo'd starts on OL and winning. I see SI has our SOS as #18. ESPN cites our OOC schedule as THE hardest in country. So far week 1 does nothing to dispell these notions.
 

GT33

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Where is the link to the stat you cite from last year? I can't find anything to confirm it's true.
It's really not that hard to find if you really wanted to know, but here I'll save you the 30 secs it would have took you to look it up yourself. Sorry, schedule difficulty was 62nd not 60th. Gave us more credit than we deserved.

 

InsideLB

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Also note I pretty much said Collins has had his chances to buy himself time and didn't do it. A green OL and tough schedule may be predictive for outcome, but that doesn't mean Collins deserves to stay at GT. He has to impress us this year. I just don't see it happening.

I do think with the current climate in CFB (NIL, transfer rule) we will lose the majority of of our best players in a coaching change, and the rebuild begins anew. Not necessarily a bad thing if Collins is not--and it appears he is not--going to be able to win at Tech.

But first let's play this season. Maybe with Key or Chip at HC we don't lose so many guys. Or maybe Collins proves us all wrong and saves his job.
 

InsideLB

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Thank you. I had searched for "final strength of schedule ranking". What you linked was 2021 college football FEI ratings, which would explain why I didn't find it when I searched.

Per the FEI chart, the average team would have lost 6.32 games vs our schedule last year based on a very convoluted process involving OFEI, DFEI and a bunch of other stuff. Translates to a 5-7 record and based on their calculations and by their way of viewing it a 62nd-ranked SOS. Haven't spent much time on FEI so I am looking forward to learning more. Thanks for turning me on to it, seriously.

So maybe the experts got GTs schedule wrong last year, as again I am sure they get a number of teams wrong. Does that necessarily mean they will get it wrong this year?

Early returns say no as our opponents are 10-1 so far, with the one being a close loss in which our opponent dominated but had 5 TOs.

Will be interesting to watch this year and see how it all turns out. Look forward to conversing more.
 

JacketOff

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Early returns say no as our opponents are 10-1 so far, with the one being a close loss in which our opponent dominated but had 5 TOs.

Will be interesting to watch this year and see how it all turns out. Look forward to conversing more.
Our opponents have only played 2 P5 games. UGA vs. Oregon and Pitt vs. WVU.

Every other game has been against G5 or FCS teams. UNC did play one of the better G5 programs in the country, but it’s still P5 vs. G5, and UNC should have way more talent than App State. They gave up 40 points in the 4th quarter. Not exactly the best sign.

We probably play an above average difficult schedule, but outside of UGA and Clemson every game should be very winnable for an average team.
 

GoldZ

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912
Thank you. I had searched for "final strength of schedule ranking". What you linked was 2021 college football FEI ratings, which would explain why I didn't find it when I searched.

Per the FEI chart, the average team would have lost 6.32 games vs our schedule last year based on a very convoluted process involving OFEI, DFEI and a bunch of other stuff. Translates to a 5-7 record and based on their calculations and by their way of viewing it a 62nd-ranked SOS. Haven't spent much time on FEI so I am looking forward to learning more. Thanks for turning me on to it, seriously.

So maybe the experts got GTs schedule wrong last year, as again I am sure they get a number of teams wrong. Does that necessarily mean they will get it wrong this year?

Early returns say no as our opponents are 10-1 so far, with the one being a close loss in which our opponent dominated but had 5 TOs.

Will be interesting to watch this year and see how it all turns out. Look forward to conversing more.
10-1 and having actually watched the games, produce waaay different opinions of our SOS. It may be 1st week itis, but I doubt it, as you say, we'll see. Btw, Oregon returned their entire OL.
 
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GT33

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Thank you. I had searched for "final strength of schedule ranking". What you linked was 2021 college football FEI ratings, which would explain why I didn't find it when I searched.

Per the FEI chart, the average team would have lost 6.32 games vs our schedule last year based on a very convoluted process involving OFEI, DFEI and a bunch of other stuff. Translates to a 5-7 record and based on their calculations and by their way of viewing it a 62nd-ranked SOS. Haven't spent much time on FEI so I am looking forward to learning more. Thanks for turning me on to it, seriously.

So maybe the experts got GTs schedule wrong last year, as again I am sure they get a number of teams wrong. Does that necessarily mean they will get it wrong this year?

Early returns say no as our opponents are 10-1 so far, with the one being a close loss in which our opponent dominated but had 5 TOs.

Will be interesting to watch this year and see how it all turns out. Look forward to conversing more.
Nobody really focuses on end of season rankings because it's uninteresting and doesn't sell. Team Rankings sells a similar product. My point is all of this pre-season garbage is nonsense. It's all there to generate interest in games and get people to watch games on tv for advertising revenue, it's clickbaiting, spending money gambling on dogs so they can profit, etc. It's massively entertaining which is why we're interested and spend hours debating it here, at our workplaces, out with our buddies, etc. At the end of the day, it's no different than work. People can trot out all the side stories you want to explain the weak results, but the results speak for themselves and expected top performers in the ACC barely beating App St, ECU & having lower tier teams losing to ODU and Rutgers in week one is not a good look. Reinforces what's known to everyone else, ACC football is a suckfest, it's killing the conference as everyone else leaves us in the dust and only ND and maybe Clemson are worth targeting for realignment. Then we get ESPN peices like this- "pay the upcharge next time":

Georgia's dominance, USC's resurgence and ACC chaos highlight a wild Week 1
Sometimes the things we think we know are actually true, like Georgia and Alabama still being dominant and the Pac-12 already losing all its playoff hope in Week 1. But we had our fair share of surprises too.
Read Now
 

WreckinGT

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UNC gave up 85 points to 2 cupcakes, VT lost to ODU, we will see if FSU is legit tonight, Miami beat a cupcake. Our real SOS will be more evident in a couple weeks.
App St is no cupcake. They were actually favored in the game and would likely be favored if they played us. But yeah, they shouldn’t be good enough to score 40 points in the 4th quarter.
 

bobongo

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If you're just looking at players, the same could've been said of last year. Outside of GA and ND, there wasn't a single game our players didn't have the ability to win- we were in spitting distance of Clemson on the road. But the coaching was terrible. Our team was consistently less than the sum of the parts. Has been every year of CGC's tenure. I haven't seen anything (yet) to think this year will be any different.
Agree completely except for the bolded part. Holding out hope that the new assistants will make a difference.
 

takethepoints

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Agree completely except for the bolded part. Holding out hope that the new assistants will make a difference.
I hope you're right, but new coaching staffs with different ideas usually don't translate into smooth transitions and improvements in performance. We'll see soon.
 

bobongo

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I hope you're right, but new coaching staffs with different ideas usually don't translate into smooth transitions and improvements in performance. We'll see soon.
Even if it's a rough transition, it's bound to be better than what we had. I have a feeling the players will welcome the transition, especially the defensive backs with Tillman. And it's not just the new coaches but also reshuffling that will help. Thacker giving up the linebackers to Semore will help free him up in his defensive coordinator role, as well as (hopefully) some assistance from Geoff. QB is going to be better coached, too, with the addition of Weinke and Long. Long reportedly focusing on the OL will help. Our new offensive analyst Jim Chaney has a very strong track record. All this is theoretical at this point, and all I know is what I read in the papers. But like you said, we'll soon see...
 

GTNavyNuke

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I know anecdotally every year we can point to preseason ranked teams that underperformed as glaring examples. But ON THE WHOLE year in and year out are the experts right more than they are wrong and by how much?

Here's the accuracy of 2021 J Howell projections. How accurate this is (R2=.45) depends on your expectation.

I think it's as good as can be reasonably expected given the turnover of players and coaches and other external factors from one season to the next. Is it highly reliable? No.

1662311040348.png


Later I'll do the range of expectations from our 2022 pre-season rankings and the range last year in our cohort.
 

FightWinDrink

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Pretty sure he means how he’ll be remembered here at GT. I have zero fond memories of him because we won like twice with him. I don’t remember anything else
If he stayed then you prob wouldn’t have remembered him either because we would have still only won like twice with him
 
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