VPI Knife Edge...

[bartoma]

I was watching the end of the VPI game this morning, and I think all of the post game euphoria led to a bit of amnesia with regard to just how far down we were with so little time left... So many critical plays that could have gone against us - absolutely no margin for error... For once, we made plays when we absolutely had too (4th and 15)... For once, we caught a few breaks when we desperately needed them (VPI's failed interception that literally bounced out of the defender's hands)...

Point is, I'm as excited about being 4-0 as anyone, and I think we may very well go a lot further, but man - how different would the conversation be except for some seriously great plays and a good deal of luck?

Just hope that we can win the next one decisively - but I've been a GT fan long enough to know better...

 

[Declinometer]

How lucky that JT missed a WIDE OPEN DW by a whisker. How lucky were we that JT had a long TD called back. How lucky were we that VPI QB scooped and scored on a fumble. How lucky were we that the officials missed 2 pass interference calls on deep balls. You're right we were lucky!

 

[Animal02]

I was watching the end of the VPI game this morning, and I think all of the post game euphoria led to a bit of amnesia with regard to just how far down we were with so little time left... So many critical plays that could have gone against us - absolutely no margin for error... For once, we made plays when we absolutely had too (4th and 15)... For once, we caught a few breaks when we desperately needed them (VPI's failed interception that literally bounced out of the defender's hands)...

Point is, I'm as excited about being 4-0 as anyone, and I think we may very well go a lot further, but man - how different would the conversation be except for some seriously great plays and a good deal of luck?

Just hope that we can win the next one decisively - but I've been a GT fan long enough to know better...

But at the same time, we caused a fumble that was picked up and run in for a TD......that in the past would have been a crushing turn of momentum.....instead, the team coomes back and wins the game.

 

[dubjacket]

Every good team needs some luck to win championships. Hopefully lady luck is on our sides the rest of the season!

 

[Techster]

Said it in another thread...this team is starting to resemble the Auburn team of last year. Still early, but we're finding ways to win whether it's lucky breaks or individual moments of brilliance. It's been a nail biting ride...but a fun one as well.

 

[Ramblin Wrecker]

There's always some degree of variability (or luck) involved in every outcome and in the long run it's evenly distributed to everyone. Any game decided by a TD or less could have had a completely different outcome if one play had turned out slightly different.

Unless there are some significant breakthroughs in string theory in the next few decades, we'll never know what could have been.

 

[Yaller Jacket]

Another way to view this situation is to consider that VPI could have/should have been saying the same things about their close wins over us in recent years. We'd have to have three of four more of these for it to even out.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

There's a lot of chance in football. Lucky and unlucky bounces happen all the time. Maybe we're getting our share of good luck now, I dunno, a lot of unlucky things happened too. But what cannot be denied or overstated is the intangible aspects that exist on all great teams is starting to emerge with this one. First and foremost is a clear leader who rises to the occasion when the game hangs in the balance. And equal in importance, one who inspires others to do likewise.

Justin's late game heroics are what they are at face value, but they are so much more than that. JT's short history in a GT uniform has only fed and nourished the faith and confidence he has in himself. More importantly, his teammates believe in him, too. I say it again, that cannot be overstated. Someone else said the fact he's not afraid to go full bore into the teeth of the defense says so much to his brothers. If he's willing to give it up for me, then I'm damn sure willing to give it up for him.

Something else, too. The team believes in the the system and what the coaches are selling them day in and day out in practice. How often do we hear our offensive system may be good at getting yards in the middle of games, but it stinks at the end of games when your behind, with little time left and a long way to go. How does that criticism ring now?

 

[Animal02]

There's a lot of chance in football. Lucky and unlucky bounces happen all the time.

The difference between a good team and a team that runs the table is typically a lucky bounce, a shoe string tackle, gust of wind, etc in a couple of close games.

 

[collegeballfan]

For decades it was called "Dodd's Luck".

 

[GTRX7]

I was watching the end of the VPI game this morning, and I think all of the post game euphoria led to a bit of amnesia with regard to just how far down we were with so little time left... So many critical plays that could have gone against us - absolutely no margin for error... For once, we made plays when we absolutely had too (4th and 15)... For once, we caught a few breaks when we desperately needed them (VPI's failed interception that literally bounced out of the defender's hands)...

Point is, I'm as excited about being 4-0 as anyone, and I think we may very well go a lot further, but man - how different would the conversation be except for some seriously great plays and a good deal of luck?

Just hope that we can win the next one decisively - but I've been a GT fan long enough to know better...

The bolded above is a perfect example of perspective. Was it lucky that VPI failed to intercept the ball that bounced off the defender's hands, or was it unlucky that the pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage when it was going to a wide open receiver for a touchdown? As others have mentioned, there was a lot of lucky bounces in that game in both directions (as there are in most games). I think the lucky bounces actually sort of averaged out, and I was just glad to see the team step up and make plans in spite of and/or with the help of those bounces.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

The bolded above is a perfect example of perspective. Was it lucky that VPI failed to intercept the ball that bounced off the defender's hands, or was it unlucky that the pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage when it was going to a wide open receiver for a touchdown? As others have mentioned, there was a lot of lucky bounces in that game in both directions (as there are in most games). I think the lucky bounces actually sort of averaged out, and I was just glad to see the team step up and make plans in spite of and/or with the help of those bounces.

It's a game of inches.

 

[albanyjacket]

Thats what she said!

 

[InsideLB]

We won because we competed hard, hung around, took advantage of Some opportunities and made the key plays needed to win the game.

Most importantly we kept fighting.

 

[AE 87]

One, I agree with the sentiment of the OP that our win was not a domination, but I also have tended to point that out in the opposite direction most of the last several years against VPI.

Here's a stat that I find telling. We scored 2pts/drive vs VPI (20 pts in 10 offensive drives). By comparison, tOSU scored 1.5 ppd and ECU (who put up 70 on UNC) scored 1.8 ppd vs VPI. Even with our offensive misfires, we did better against VPI than two pretty good offenses.

As of this past week, our 3.2ppd average (unadjusted for opponents) is #20 in the nation.

 

[MWBATL]

I think we will need to hit our average against Miami (or exceed it) in order to win the game.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

One, I agree with the sentiment of the OP that our win was not a domination, but I also have tended to point that out in the opposite direction most of the last several years against VPI.

Here's a stat that I find telling. We scored 2pts/drive vs VPI (20 pts in 10 offensive drives). By comparison, tOSU scored 1.5 ppd and ECU (who put up 70 on UNC) scored 1.8 ppd vs VPI. Even with our offensive misfires, we did better against VPI than two pretty good offenses.

As of this past week, our 3.2ppd average (unadjusted for opponents) is #20 in the nation.

AE, where can I find ppd stats, cfbstats.com doesn't have 'em? (edit)

aside: Georgia Southern is among the leaders in nearly every offensive stat. Their D is pretty good, too, only giving up 19 ppg. We, otoh, are giving up 26. That was no small feat knocking off those guys.

 

[GTJake]

It was an away ACC Divisional Conference game won by coming from behind in the 4th quarter ... when as a fan base will we start looking at the bright side.

 

[AE 87]

AE, where can I find ppd stats, cfbstats.com doesn't have 'em? (edit)

aside: Georgia Southern is among the leaders in nearly every offensive stat. Their D is pretty good, too, only giving up 19 ppg. We, otoh, are giving up 26. That was no small feat knocking off those guys.

I calculate ppd from cfbstats data.
Points = 7*sum (rushing TD, passing TD) +3* FGs made.
Drives = sum(TDs, FGatt, Punts, Lost TOs, failed 4th Dwns)

Theoretically there could be a drive ending in a safety or a lost fumble during a return, but I think it's close enough. I don't count defensive scores as part of offensive production as most Total Points stats do.

Ga Southern in #5 at 3.76 ppd.

 

[awbuzz]

When teams are fairly evenly matched the luck factor weighs in. If not so evenly matched then turnovers (which can include some luck). Look at NC St 2 years ago against FSU. They were +5 on turnovers and won. This year while still +2 on turnovers, they lost.