Visualizing QB Styles under Paul Johnson

[Stinger90]

After reading " Will one of our QB step up..." I found this on the Rumble Seat.
http://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2014/7/3/5858884/comparing-quaterbacks-under-cpj

Eric, if you feel the need to add this to "Will one of our QB' step up.." thread go ahead.

 

[takethepoints]

Now, that is a good post! I like it that the author was using R (looks like these are ggplot2 graphs); don't see that in every fan base out there. It largely confirms the impressions I (and, I bet, most everyone else) had of our QBs. Too bad Tevin was at the position when we had such bad Ds.

 

[ATL1]

While agree Tevin's inabilities were overblown but please lets not was nostalgic and ignore his obvious shortcomings. This is a good job of showcasing the metrics but we still have to provide context. As mentioned in the comments the metrics don't include situation and play by play or game by game averages. It also doesn't include level of talent (Bay Bay & Dwyer for Nesbitt) and opponent variable. It's a good study to look at as a whole but I don't think you could draw too many conclusions off it.

 

[AE 87]

Thanks for the link @Stinger90 . I like the idea behind this analysis. However, I think the field-position data is next to meaningless. First, as article hinted at but didn't fully appreciate, this data doesn't account for how often the team ran plays from each field position. As a contribution to qb style, you'd want %of plays from a certain field position were QB carries. Second, since many of our QB runs come off options, the number of carries dossn't necessarily reflect the offense's use of the QB as the defense's force of the QB.

 

[Dustman]

Until someone else rips a ball away from an FSU linebacker and converts on 4th down behind 3 pts in sudden death, it will always be Nez in my book.

 

[ATL1]

you mean this play

 

[MGTfan]

The charts verify one thing to me–Vad was as bad as we thought he was. It's amazing how much lower his YPC on third down was. Hopefully we will see an improvement from JT.

 

[presjacket]

The author wrote, "Does one rely on his receivers downfield, or perhaps one is constantly dumping off to his running backs?"

I assume that he is counting A-backs as running backs, but I would hardly contend that any QB in CPJ system is dumping off to running backs. In any other system, they would be considered slot receivers.

 

[AE 87]

@presjacket Yeah, I think it reflects receivers more than QB style, to some extent. I think Orwin and Godhigh were targeted especially.

 

[AE 87]

I don't know if this has to do with QB style or not, but it's often brought up in discussions of QBs. I looked up raw 4th down data over the last 6 years. It doesn't give any data about yards to get so take it for what it's worth:

Fourth Downs

Year Punts … Atts . Made … Att% .Cnv%
2008 .. 47 ……28 ……12 …..... 37.3… 42.9
2009 .. 37 …... 27 ….. 15 ….... 42.2 … 55.6
2010 ...43 …… 40 .... 22 ….... 48.2 … 55.0
2011 .. 40 …… 19 ……10 ….... 32.2 … 52.6
2012 .. 47 …… 37 ..… 23 ...… 44.0 … 62.2
2013 .. 45 …… 18 ……. 8 ….... 28.6 … 44.4

Fewest 4th downs: 2011
Most 4th Downs: 2012 (Highest Conv%, shortest?)

 

[jeffgt14]

I don't know if this has to do with QB style or not, but it's often brought up in discussions of QBs. I looked up raw 4th down data over the last 6 years. It doesn't give any data about yards to get so take it for what it's worth:

Fourth Downs

Year Punts … Atts . Made … Att% .Cnv%
2008 .. 47 ……28 ……12 …..... 37.3… 42.9
2009 .. 37 …... 27 ….. 15 ….... 42.2 … 55.6
2010 ...43 …… 40 .... 22 ….... 48.2 … 55.0
2011 .. 40 …… 19 ……10 ….... 32.2 … 52.6
2012 .. 47 …… 37 ..… 23 ...… 44.0 … 62.2
2013 .. 45 …… 18 ……. 8 ….... 28.6 … 44.4

Fewest 4th downs: 2011
Most 4th Downs: 2012 (Highest Conv%, shortest?)

There were numerous times last year where we couldn’t pick up 4th and 1.

 

[AE 87]

There were numerous times last year where we couldn’t pick up 4th and 1.

Lowest % in attempts and second lowest % in conv.

 

[Dustman]

There were numerous times last year where we couldn’t pick up 4th and 1.

There have been times in recent years we didn't try to pick it up. The Miami overtime loss at home comes to mind. Seems like we always went for it with #9 under center.

 

[daBuzz]

The charts verify one thing to me–Vad was as bad as we thought he was. It's amazing how much lower his YPC on third down was. Hopefully we will see an improvement from JT.

Hmmm...not necessarily.

Look at his stats in 2012 and then how much different they were in 2013. One thing obviously different was that he was a starter in 2013 and getting more beaten up. But the bigger difference was the line in 2013 that was light years behind the 2012 team.

 

[awbuzz]

Good OP. You owe it to yourself to go an read if you haven't.

As stated, TW doesn't look so bad now...

with that said, many factors do affect the data including, RBs, WRs and the O-line. The other variables are changing too, so it makes it hard to purely judge the QB.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Hmmm...not necessarily.

Look at his stats in 2012 and then how much different they were in 2013. One thing obviously different was that he was a starter in 2013 and getting more beaten up. But the bigger difference was the line in 2013 that was light years behind the 2012 team.

The OL/QB debate is a chicken and egg one. Either one underperforming can make the other look horrible. It was probably a little bit of both. Funny how the OL looked way better for Tevin in '12 and it was the same guys.

 

[Longestday]

I think the OL/QB relationship is true and was a little bit of both last year.

I still think Vad has trouble thinking quickly and could be overwhelmed with the vast number of options/decisions. The offensive line did not make it easier, but I think Vad would still have issues with a good line. Justin and Byerly show better thought progression than Vad. You will see this in their willingness to pitch as they can keep both defenders and pitch man in their "mind". Vad got better at it, but it was not "natural" for him.

Byerly was reading the field pre play and this was the reason for some of his quick pitches to the AB (many have complained). He saw the blitz coming, would shorten the mesh time with the BB, expected the DE in his face, and made the quick pitch to the AB.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

@presjacket Yeah, I think it reflects receivers more than QB style, to some extent. I think Orwin and Godhigh were targeted especially.

Thanks for the link Stinger.

AE, exactly right when you look at the choices TW had in 2012 http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/team/255/receiving/index.html

Plus I think TW realized he didn't throw the long ball very well. I think going to the shorter passes was the right thing to do.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I think the OL/QB relationship is true and was a little bit of both last year.

I still think Vad has trouble thinking quickly and could be overwhelmed with the vast number of options/decisions. The offensive line did not make it easier, but I think Vad would still have issues with a good line. Justin and Byerly show better thought progression than Vad. You will see this in their willingness to pitch as they can keep both defenders and pitch man in their "mind". Vad got better at it, but it was not "natural" for him.

Byerly was reading the field pre play and this was the reason for some of his quick pitches to the AB (many have complained). He saw the blitz coming, would shorten the mesh time with the BB, expected the DE in his face, and made the quick pitch to the AB.

We also eliminated all the diamond mess that took time away from perfecting the option. It's one thing added to what you do if you got it down pat. It's a whole other thing adding new stuff when your still struggling with the base.

I'm starting to wonder if all that stuff was added to pacify Vad. Maybe coach knew of Vad's discontent and wanted to give him a reason to stick around. What a dismal failure of an experiment that was. It turned out to backfire as we weren't any good at anything.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

I think we tend to overstate our performance, both good and bad, in this offense.