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Virginia vs. Georgia Tech Predictions #UVAvsGT
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<blockquote data-quote="BCJacket" data-source="post: 489222" data-attributes="member: 2332"><p>I do run some analysis/statistics. But if I'm being honest, ultimately it's squinting at the numbers and making a guess.</p><p></p><p>I do an Excel matrix of common opponents and performances, on both offense and defense for both teams, to get a differential. ie how much better or worse our D and O did than theirs vs common opponent. Which admittedly, is very rough since it only looks a raw points scored or surrendered. </p><p></p><p>I also look at FEI. Specifically, at how the offenses and defenses did against the most comparable opponents in OFEI/DFEI. For example, Tech has an OFEI of 3.12 - 11th. Their D played NCSt (with a similar OFEI of 3.05 13th) and gave up 35 points. UVA has a DFEI of 1.85, Tech's O played Duke which has a similar DFEI of 1.9 and managed 14 points. And so on. I do a table of these values in Excel also.</p><p></p><p>Then I run some averages, make adjustments for outliers and then do a subjective rounding of the results. I'm also admittedly bearish in my predictions for Tech. I want the team to outperform my expectation, not be disappointed.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="BCJacket, post: 489222, member: 2332"] I do run some analysis/statistics. But if I'm being honest, ultimately it's squinting at the numbers and making a guess. I do an Excel matrix of common opponents and performances, on both offense and defense for both teams, to get a differential. ie how much better or worse our D and O did than theirs vs common opponent. Which admittedly, is very rough since it only looks a raw points scored or surrendered. I also look at FEI. Specifically, at how the offenses and defenses did against the most comparable opponents in OFEI/DFEI. For example, Tech has an OFEI of 3.12 - 11th. Their D played NCSt (with a similar OFEI of 3.05 13th) and gave up 35 points. UVA has a DFEI of 1.85, Tech's O played Duke which has a similar DFEI of 1.9 and managed 14 points. And so on. I do a table of these values in Excel also. Then I run some averages, make adjustments for outliers and then do a subjective rounding of the results. I'm also admittedly bearish in my predictions for Tech. I want the team to outperform my expectation, not be disappointed. [/QUOTE]
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