Virginia Tech, Baseball

How many games will we win @VT? (Assume 3 played)

  • 3

    Votes: 3 11.1%
  • 2

    Votes: 8 29.6%
  • 1

    Votes: 16 59.3%
  • 0

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .

GTNavyNuke

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Its crunch time to put a resume together which will get us a tourney bid. Being a game below 500 in ACC play (7-8) and weak RPI of 59 this morning due to weak OOC SoS (204) we need a series win on the road. https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2023/schedule/Georgia-Tech

So far, we've lost both road series (L'Ville and BC). At home, we won the ND and Clemson series but lost the UNC series. Nothing there to get a bid with a weak OOC.

VT at 45 RPI isn't ranked by most and started off with much higher expectations. They are only 5-9 in the ACC. Swept @Miami, losing @ Pitt(!) and BC and splitting @Duke but beating UVa (!!) they are a picture of inconsistency too. Beating UVa (@VT) is their signature achievement so far and was @VT (for emphasis).

They hit well as expected (5th in ACC and we're 2nd), pitching is suspect but better than ours (they are 12th in ACC and we are 13th but their ERA is almost 1 better than ours @ 5.78 versus 6.70) and in fielding they are great at #1 (@.986 and we are 12th @ .968). They don't beat themselves in the field.

So I'd give them the expected advantage at home to win the series. But I think we have to win this series, or fall 2 below 500 with these series to go: tougher UVa, @Miami; equivalent @Duke and easier Pitt.

Its going to come down to how healthy our pitching staff is. Finley, McGuire, etc .... Also it would help defensively to get Compton back at 3rd and while I've seen rumors it's hard to expect that given his reaction to the reinjury to his hammy. I'll decide how many we win when I see who is "starting". I say "starting" since I hope it is limited to once thorough the rotation or most twice if doing well. I loved Hall having 10 pitchers in the Auburn win and hope Quick Hook is in the house and doesn't let our starter give up the typical 5ER.

Weather is unsettled but not too cold with Saturday being the best. We should be able to get all 3 in and not an ice bowl.

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FredJacket

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Sorry Nuke. I would get too accustomed to 10 pitchers in a game. Tues was a 1-off. Hadn't played a game since Fri & 2 days rest following. You cannot manage pitchers like that over a full 3 game weekend. Sombody/Anybody... hopefully more than one body HAS to eat innings.
 

GTNavyNuke

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Sorry Nuke. I would get too accustomed to 10 pitchers in a game. Tues was a 1-off. Hadn't played a game since Fri & 2 days rest following. You cannot manage pitchers like that over a full 3 game weekend. Sombody/Anybody... hopefully more than one body HAS to eat innings.

Sure try to eat innings and give up 5 ER trying to get one more out and only going 3.0-3.2 anyway. Works real well. It is what it is. Some should be able to "eat" 2.0-3.0 innings, wasps have small stomachs.

If we don't have enough pitchers step up, we'll keep having a blowout or two a weekend.
 

gtbeak

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Sure try to eat innings and give up 5 ER trying to get one more out and only going 3.0-3.2 anyway. Works real well. It is what it is. Some should be able to "eat" 2.0-3.0 innings, wasps have small stomachs.

If we don't have enough pitchers step up, we'll keep having a blowout or two a weekend.
Assuming that Finley is not 100%, and knowing McGuire isn't stretched out yet, Schmolke is the only one I see even capable of giving 4 or 5 innings. In chat it was mentioned that Brown will probably not pitch this weekend. No idea on Finley, but for now let's assume he can give us a few innings. My rotation would be Finley/Finateri piggy back on Friday, Schmolke go as much as possible while remaining effective on Saturday, and then McGuire/Carwile piggy back on Sunday. By piggy back, what I mean is 2-3 innings each, no more than that unless they are pitching like Greg Maddux (sorry Squints, I had to work a Greg Maddux mention into my post!!!)
 

GTNavyNuke

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Assuming that Finley is not 100%, and knowing McGuire isn't stretched out yet, Schmolke is the only one I see even capable of giving 4 or 5 innings. In chat it was mentioned that Brown will probably not pitch this weekend. No idea on Finley, but for now let's assume he can give us a few innings. My rotation would be Finley/Finateri piggy back on Friday, Schmolke go as much as possible while remaining effective on Saturday, and then McGuire/Carwile piggy back on Sunday. By piggy back, what I mean is 2-3 innings each, no more than that unless they are pitching like Greg Maddux (sorry Squints, I had to work a Greg Maddux mention into my post!!!)

Still no Game Notes for VT. https://ramblinwreck.com/2023-baseball-game-notes/

I think we keep the Friday rotations real short so they mostly can go again on SUnday. Get about 17 pitch recovery per day. Saturday, go longer. If we have a chance to win, throw the best; which is what we have been doing.

Other than not having the overall quality or endurance of pitching, I'm fine. We have the quantity. Interesting to see King and Vaughan moving up; reward performance with more innings.

1681425579363.png
 

GTNavyNuke

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Schmolke, TBA, TBA are the pitchers per the Game Notes.

Thanks. 1 win expected, hoping for more.

Pitching has een a problem for a long time, but we're at depths or lack thereof I'm not sure we've ever been at. Damn.

Agree, damn. Hope we see Bogue and some younger guys.

I like the 2:30 game time, but could be a looong game with some rain delays. Will break up pitching even more, for both teams. But nice warm rain so no big deal. It'll be raining here and I'll cut out of work for the game.

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GTNavyNuke

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Here's why I think we *have* to win 2 at VT to get a bid.

Picking up on the Auburn posts about RPI, agree with @FredJacket about our winning of our games only being 1/4 of the RPI where wins are considered. Another wrinkle that is very important is that the winning percentage is not straight wins and losses, but adjusted wins and losses. "Starting in 2013, college baseball RPI formula values each road victory as 1.3 instead of 1.0. Each home win is valued at 0.7 instead of 1.0. Conversely, each home loss counts 1.3 against a team's RPI and each road loss counts 0.7 against a team's RPI."

I don't dislike RPI (intentional double negative as opposed to affirmative) as it's the best thing out there given ~290 D1 teams to be ranked and wide variation in schedules. I also think it gives the smaller schools a slight advantage to getting a bid rather than the big schools who already have many advantages.

More importantly, here's our "needs" report. Keep in mind we have 22 games left, 11 @ home and 11 away. http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html
To make top 45 (which probably won't get a bid IMHO unless we are 16-14 in ACC), we have to 13-9 or 14-10.
To make top 32 which would get us a bid since we'd probably only need to be at 500 in ACC, we have to go 17-5 or 16-6. Very hard with @Miami, UVa and @Duke to go. (Pitt isn't hard).

1681471794290.png


And from Warren Nolan, here's why our RPI is so low right now - due to those Quad 4 teams OOC. That was the scheduling screw up we made -- and an unforced error in my opinion. Only "bad" loss which wasn't that bad was to Ga State. (https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2023/team-sheet?team=Georgia-Tech )
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FredJacket

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Here's why I think we *have* to win 2 at VT to get a bid.

Picking up on the Auburn posts about RPI, agree with @FredJacket about our winning of our games only being 1/4 of the RPI where wins are considered. Another wrinkle that is very important is that the winning percentage is not straight wins and losses, but adjusted wins and losses. "Starting in 2013, college baseball RPI formula values each road victory as 1.3 instead of 1.0. Each home win is valued at 0.7 instead of 1.0. Conversely, each home loss counts 1.3 against a team's RPI and each road loss counts 0.7 against a team's RPI."

I don't dislike RPI (intentional double negative as opposed to affirmative) as it's the best thing out there given ~290 D1 teams to be ranked and wide variation in schedules. I also think it gives the smaller schools a slight advantage to getting a bid rather than the big schools who already have many advantages.

More importantly, here's our "needs" report. Keep in mind we have 22 games left, 11 @ home and 11 away. http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html
To make top 45 (which probably won't get a bid IMHO unless we are 16-14 in ACC), we have to 13-9 or 14-10.
To make top 32 which would get us a bid since we'd probably only need to be at 500 in ACC, we have to go 17-5 or 16-6. Very hard with @Miami, UVa and @Duke to go. (Pitt isn't hard).

View attachment 14280

And from Warren Nolan, here's why our RPI is so low right now - due to those Quad 4 teams OOC. That was the scheduling screw up we made -- and an unforced error in my opinion. Only "bad" loss which wasn't that bad was to Ga State. (https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2023/team-sheet?team=Georgia-Tech )
View attachment 14281
I think there are better computations for baseball than RPI. Maybe I'll research that. None is close to perfect & each will help/hurt certain teams (category of teams)... like you mentioned with RPI.

I do believe Ga Tech (2023) simply needs to be .500 or better in ACC & RPI won't really matter.... that's good news. Top50 RPI is going to be difficult (math-wise).

Big question will be... does ACC Tourney results matter (assuming we aren't champions)? I would have said yes... until NC state happened last year.

Finally.. regarding this weekend. 3rd of 3 ACC road series on artificial turf. Does it matter? Probably not... but I love bitchin' about having to play stupid Big East teams.

Go JACKETS!!
 

GTNavyNuke

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I think there are better computations for baseball than RPI. Maybe I'll research that. None is close to perfect & each will help/hurt certain teams (category of teams)... like you mentioned with RPI.

I do believe Ga Tech (2023) simply needs to be .500 or better in ACC & RPI won't really matter.... that's good news. Top50 RPI is going to be difficult (math-wise).

Big question will be... does ACC Tourney results matter (assuming we aren't champions)? I would have said yes... until NC state happened last year.

Finally.. regarding this weekend. 3rd of 3 ACC road series on artificial turf. Does it matter? Probably not... but I love bitchin' about having to play stupid Big East teams.

Go JACKETS!!

Boyds World ISR ( http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/currentisr.html ) is what some of the D1 people have said is slightly better. It has us at 60 now and I don't see that much real difference in the results.

Homework question, what is the worst RPI for which an ACC team has gotten a bid with a 500 (or worse) ACC record? Are there any ACC teams with a 500 ACC record which didn't get a bid? I'm not checking but I think that if we are >=45 RPI, we don't get a bid with exactly 500, have to be above and that is 16-14. Prove me wrong (again) :rolleyes:
 

FredJacket

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Boyds World ISR ( http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/currentisr.html ) is what some of the D1 people have said is slightly better. It has us at 60 now and I don't see that much real difference in the results.

Homework question, what is the worst RPI for which an ACC team has gotten a bid with a 500 (or worse) ACC record? Are there any ACC teams with a 500 ACC record which didn't get a bid? I'm not checking but I think that if we are >=45 RPI, we don't get a bid with exactly 500, have to be above and that is 16-14. Prove me wrong (again) :rolleyes:
Anecdotally, in 2016... the ACC changed format of ACC Tournament (increased to 12 teams) after UNC failed to make ACC Tournament at 13-17 in conference. Also failed to make NCAA. RPI #19. [No... that doesn't address your questions]

I think the committee very RARELY will give a bid a team with a conference record below .500.

Most years... the ACC has at least one very weak team (single digit wins) & you end up with 8 or 9 teams at or above .500... more than half the conference. This year, we may end up with no team in single digits. Result could be only 7 teams at .500 or better. (the situation at midway).

Cannot imagine only 7 ACC teams getting bids. We'll see how it plays out.
 

gtbeak

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And from Warren Nolan, here's why our RPI is so low right now - due to those Quad 4 teams OOC. That was the scheduling screw up we made -- and an unforced error in my opinion.
Replying to the bolded part, in defense of CDH (or whoever does the scheduling), Tennessee Tech and Long Island were both in the low 100s RPI wise last season. Unless they both lost a ton of talent from last year's teams their high 200 RPIs this season were not obvious at the time the schedules were made. I chalk it more up to just bad luck on our part. Now Miami (Oh) was indeed an unforced error.
 

gtbeak

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Homework question, what is the worst RPI for which an ACC team has gotten a bid with a 500 (or worse) ACC record? Are there any ACC teams with a 500 ACC record which didn't get a bid? I'm not checking but I think that if we are >=45 RPI, we don't get a bid with exactly 500, have to be above and that is 16-14. Prove me wrong (again) :rolleyes:
Going back to 2017 (that's as far back as I could easily find). The RPIs may be the final RPI after the NCAA tournament was played rather than the RPI at selection time, I'm not certain.

What is the worst RPI for which an ACC team has gotten a bid with a 500 (or worse) ACC record?
Duke in 2021 made the tourney at 16-17, but with an RPI of 21
North Carolina in 2021 made the tourney at 18-18 with an RPI of 46
Clemson in 2019 made the tourney at 15-15 with an RPI of 41

Are there any ACC teams with a 500 ACC record which didn't get a bid?
Louisville in 2021 went 16-16, but an RPI of 70 kept them out.
 

FredJacket

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Going back to 2017 (that's as far back as I could easily find). The RPIs may be the final RPI after the NCAA tournament was played rather than the RPI at selection time, I'm not certain.

What is the worst RPI for which an ACC team has gotten a bid with a 500 (or worse) ACC record?
Duke in 2021 made the tourney at 16-17, but with an RPI of 21
North Carolina in 2021 made the tourney at 18-18 with an RPI of 46
Clemson in 2019 made the tourney at 15-15 with an RPI of 41

Are there any ACC teams with a 500 ACC record which didn't get a bid?
Louisville in 2021 went 16-16, but an RPI of 70 kept them out.
Good stuff. ...but Duke in 2021 won the ACCT = automatic bid.
 

bensaysitathome

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Going back to 2017 (that's as far back as I could easily find). The RPIs may be the final RPI after the NCAA tournament was played rather than the RPI at selection time, I'm not certain.

What is the worst RPI for which an ACC team has gotten a bid with a 500 (or worse) ACC record?
Duke in 2021 made the tourney at 16-17, but with an RPI of 21
North Carolina in 2021 made the tourney at 18-18 with an RPI of 46
Clemson in 2019 made the tourney at 15-15 with an RPI of 41

Are there any ACC teams with a 500 ACC record which didn't get a bid?
Louisville in 2021 went 16-16, but an RPI of 70 kept them out.

RPI may be a challenge for us this year, but this sort of confirms the target, IMO. Finish with a winning conference record, and we're likely in. But that won't be easy.

Currently at 7-8, need 9-6 to finish on the right side of the line. Assuming all games are played, we have 6 losses to give. If 2 of those are vs UVA, we have to win the remaining series 2-1.

@ VT
@ Miami
vs Pitt
@Duke
vs UVA
 

Home Park Jacket

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Seems our backs are really up against the wall this weekend. Hopefully we play like it. Seems that we have to win this series, win at least 1 in Miami, and sweep Pitt to have a chance.
 
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