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<blockquote data-quote="YJMD" data-source="post: 421745" data-attributes="member: 1929"><p>I dunno. It's hard to do adequate research on 300 teams, but it doesn't take much looking beyond our W-L record to anticipate a lot better than a P5 bottom dweller. Looking at # of returning starters / upperclassmen is a common way to project results, and it's one that has good reliability with very little effort. Computer rankings or basically any evaluation that ignores W-L and looks at performance on a relative scale is also a much better predictor of future performance and can require very little effort. In these ways, we are primed for a large improvement from last year. But there are lots of ways to rationalize less improvement or perhaps stagnation. But I really can't find anyway to look at this team and <em>expect</em> regression as they have. It might happen, but I might also win the Powerball next week. I think regression for our football team is significantly more likely, but I don't find either expectation justifiable.</p><p></p><p>I am a little weary of our health. We just lost arguably our best overall player but at a position with quality athletic depth. We just lost a starting OL where there is a lot of reason for worry for every health issue that arises. We may have a healthy Andrew Marshall and an eligible Jack DeFoors, which will salvage my dreams for a possible special season. Unless we get hit by more bad luck, though, we ought to at minimum reach bowl eligibility and may compete for our division.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="YJMD, post: 421745, member: 1929"] I dunno. It's hard to do adequate research on 300 teams, but it doesn't take much looking beyond our W-L record to anticipate a lot better than a P5 bottom dweller. Looking at # of returning starters / upperclassmen is a common way to project results, and it's one that has good reliability with very little effort. Computer rankings or basically any evaluation that ignores W-L and looks at performance on a relative scale is also a much better predictor of future performance and can require very little effort. In these ways, we are primed for a large improvement from last year. But there are lots of ways to rationalize less improvement or perhaps stagnation. But I really can't find anyway to look at this team and [I]expect[/I] regression as they have. It might happen, but I might also win the Powerball next week. I think regression for our football team is significantly more likely, but I don't find either expectation justifiable. I am a little weary of our health. We just lost arguably our best overall player but at a position with quality athletic depth. We just lost a starting OL where there is a lot of reason for worry for every health issue that arises. We may have a healthy Andrew Marshall and an eligible Jack DeFoors, which will salvage my dreams for a possible special season. Unless we get hit by more bad luck, though, we ought to at minimum reach bowl eligibility and may compete for our division. [/QUOTE]
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