iggymcfly
Georgia Tech Fan
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- 73
Let's not worry about our chances of beating Florida State or Georgia. Let's just look at our chances of other teams being ahead of us IF we win out.
Pac-12 champion- 100%: This is a stone cold lock now that it's assured that the conference champion will have 2 losses or less. Pac-12 is the second toughest conference in the country this year, and there won't be any head-to-head logic in our favor like there could be with the SEC.
Big XII champion- 99%: TCU has a good chance of losing to Texas and Baylor plays Kansas State, but each team will be 95%+ in their other game, and against a 2-loss Big XII champion, Georgia Tech winning a head-to-head is very unlikely.
Alabama- 96%: We can get in over Alabama one of two ways: either Auburn and Mississippi both win this week and then Bama loses in the SEC championship OR we beat Georgia and Georgia beats Bama for the SEC Title with a high enough margin of victory to convince the committee that we should get the shot over them on the head-to-head.
Mississippi State- 81%: If Mississippi State beats Mississippi, there's literally zero chance we pass them. If they lose, and we have a win over an SEC champion Georgia, our chances are likely very good, but it's not guaranteed. If someone other than Georgia wins the SEC title our chances are not good, but it's still possible, especially if we blow out Georgia and/or Mississippi blows out Mississippi State. The other 3 ACC/SEC matchups will also be key factors here.
Ohio State- 65%: We need a win by either Michigan or the Big Ten West champion to keep Ohio State out.
Big XII runner up- 43%: If Baylor and TCU both win out, they'd each be co-champs with 1 loss and would both be ahead of a 2-loss Tech. Our best chance here is Baylor losing to Kansas State, but TCU is also about 31% to lose to Texas according to the betting markets.
Florida State- 43%: If the Noles lose to Florida, we don't have to worry about them being in over us. If they beat Florida, our margin of victory will be key. This is one of those spots where it's truly impossible to predict how the committeee will react. We might need to win by 20 to get in, or a 3 point win might do it. We have no idea.
Pac-12 runner up- 15%: I don't really think we have much to worry about if Oregon wins the Pac-12, but if they lose a close game, it's definitely not out of the realm that they take a spot from us with 2 losses, especially if the loss was to UCLA who they beat on the road earlier in the season.
So yeah, with most of the favored teams winning last week, our playoff chances are pretty slim. Probably about 3% IF we win out which is already very unlikely. Teams to root for this week to help us pull out the miracle:
In order from most leverage to least
Georgia Tech over Georgia (LDO. Go Jackets!)
Mississippi over Mississippi State
Texas over TCU
Auburn over Alabama
Arkansas over Missouri
Clemson over South Carolina
Texas Tech over Baylor
Michigan over Ohio State
Louisville over Kentucky
Kansas over Kansas State
Oregon State over Oregon
Stanford over UCLA
Florida/Florida State ? (Really hard to know which side even helps the Jackets more. It all depends on the commmittee's criteria)
Pac-12 champion- 100%: This is a stone cold lock now that it's assured that the conference champion will have 2 losses or less. Pac-12 is the second toughest conference in the country this year, and there won't be any head-to-head logic in our favor like there could be with the SEC.
Big XII champion- 99%: TCU has a good chance of losing to Texas and Baylor plays Kansas State, but each team will be 95%+ in their other game, and against a 2-loss Big XII champion, Georgia Tech winning a head-to-head is very unlikely.
Alabama- 96%: We can get in over Alabama one of two ways: either Auburn and Mississippi both win this week and then Bama loses in the SEC championship OR we beat Georgia and Georgia beats Bama for the SEC Title with a high enough margin of victory to convince the committee that we should get the shot over them on the head-to-head.
Mississippi State- 81%: If Mississippi State beats Mississippi, there's literally zero chance we pass them. If they lose, and we have a win over an SEC champion Georgia, our chances are likely very good, but it's not guaranteed. If someone other than Georgia wins the SEC title our chances are not good, but it's still possible, especially if we blow out Georgia and/or Mississippi blows out Mississippi State. The other 3 ACC/SEC matchups will also be key factors here.
Ohio State- 65%: We need a win by either Michigan or the Big Ten West champion to keep Ohio State out.
Big XII runner up- 43%: If Baylor and TCU both win out, they'd each be co-champs with 1 loss and would both be ahead of a 2-loss Tech. Our best chance here is Baylor losing to Kansas State, but TCU is also about 31% to lose to Texas according to the betting markets.
Florida State- 43%: If the Noles lose to Florida, we don't have to worry about them being in over us. If they beat Florida, our margin of victory will be key. This is one of those spots where it's truly impossible to predict how the committeee will react. We might need to win by 20 to get in, or a 3 point win might do it. We have no idea.
Pac-12 runner up- 15%: I don't really think we have much to worry about if Oregon wins the Pac-12, but if they lose a close game, it's definitely not out of the realm that they take a spot from us with 2 losses, especially if the loss was to UCLA who they beat on the road earlier in the season.
So yeah, with most of the favored teams winning last week, our playoff chances are pretty slim. Probably about 3% IF we win out which is already very unlikely. Teams to root for this week to help us pull out the miracle:
In order from most leverage to least
Georgia Tech over Georgia (LDO. Go Jackets!)
Mississippi over Mississippi State
Texas over TCU
Auburn over Alabama
Arkansas over Missouri
Clemson over South Carolina
Texas Tech over Baylor
Michigan over Ohio State
Louisville over Kentucky
Kansas over Kansas State
Oregon State over Oregon
Stanford over UCLA
Florida/Florida State ? (Really hard to know which side even helps the Jackets more. It all depends on the commmittee's criteria)
