Updated BA Field of 64, 5/1/19

FredJacket

FredJacket

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bensaysitathome said:
They want me to buy a subscription...what's their projection?
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FredJacket

FredJacket

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He (Cahill) states this is NOT an "if season ended today" thing. So... a few thoughts off top of my head:
1) He does not think Ga Tech will finish very strong, although he has us above UNC and Miami. He picks Louisville to win ACC Tournament.
2) He probably is "attracted" to a UGA/GT super regional matchup (I wonder if committee would do/feel same)
3) Duke is a "last 4 in" team - they will be desperate at home in Durham when Tech travels there. Finishing strong (see #1 above) will require Tech to match Duke's desperation.
4) This projection has 8 ACC teams in (host*): Louisville*, GT*, UNC*, Miami*, FSU, NC State, Clem, Duke. I believe 8 in and 4 hosting is ceiling.. I would expect it to end up as 7 in and 3 hosting.

Just win! IMO... if season ended today, we would HAVE to be a top 8 seed if you are including both UGA and Louisville in that list...which he does.
 

bensaysitathome

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Thanks for the info. I seem to remember BaseballAmerica hasn't been very high on us all year. d1Baseball, on the other hand, might be a bit too high. I wonder which will be closer to where we actually end up.

Either way, our final games against low RPI teams will be not be good for the metrics. We could win them all and drop to RPI #15 or something. That may play into things.
 

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Surprised there are folks at the high end of the list who have similar records but much worse strength of schedules. I wonder if when the rubber meets the road at the end of it will stay that way.
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

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bwelbo said:
Surprised there are folks at the high end of the list who have similar records but much worse strength of schedules. I wonder if when the rubber meets the road at the end of it will stay that way.
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Agree. But these things are ultimately really meaningless. Since it is a true projection...theoretically, it is taking into account remaining schedule (including conference tournaments) & those projected results as well "how teams finish"

And after the W. CAROLINA series... even if we sweep, that in a vacuum, will force downward pressure on Tech's RPI because once we play them the SOS suffers.

Tech controls it's own fate re seeding. Finish with 19-21 wins in ACC and win a few in ACC tournament will be top 8 seed stuff. Flail around to 18 or less ACC wins.. finish 3rd in Coastal & dump 2 games in ACC tournament... not a good situation.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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Sweep Western and Pitt. Beat Mercer. Win 2/3 vs. Duke and you're a top 8 seed. 9-1 in your last 10 and we're watching baseball in Atlanta until we lose, or go to Omaha. 1/3 in Durham may do it as well, but I'm hesitant to leave our fate up to a committee.
 

MWBATL

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CINCYMETJACKET said:
Sweep Western and Pitt. Beat Mercer. Win 2/3 vs. Duke and you're a top 8 seed. 9-1 in your last 10 and we're watching baseball in Atlanta until we lose, or go to Omaha. 1/3 in Durham may do it as well, but I'm hesitant to leave our fate up to a committee.
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I think 1/3 in Duke would likely cost us a Top 8 seeding.

However, I will also be the first to say there is still a ton of important games involving other teams that will affect the final seeding. If some SEC teams get hot, they'll take our spot. LSU, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Auburn are the most likely to threaten us, along with a red-hot Miami and even UNC if they sweep Pitt & N C State and win the Coastal.
 
FredJacket

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MWBATL said:
I think 1/3 in Duke would likely cost us a Top 8 seeding.

However, I will also be the first to say there is still a ton of important games involving other teams that will affect the final seeding. If some SEC teams get hot, they'll take our spot. LSU, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Auburn are the most likely to threaten us, along with a red-hot Miami and even UNC if they sweep Pitt & N C State and win the Coastal.
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Conference tournament performance can makeup for a Duke series loss too. If we get a top 4 seed, I really like our chances in ACCT.
 

bensaysitathome

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MWBATL said:
I think 1/3 in Duke would likely cost us a Top 8 seeding.

However, I will also be the first to say there is still a ton of important games involving other teams that will affect the final seeding. If some SEC teams get hot, they'll take our spot. LSU, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Auburn are the most likely to threaten us, along with a red-hot Miami and even UNC if they sweep Pitt & N C State and win the Coastal.
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Auburn isn't threatening any potential national seeds. They need to get hot just for a chance to host. Tennessee too. A&M can maybe still salvage a top8 resume.
 
gtrower

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A&M has a decent record and still has MSU and Arkansas series remaining. If they win both of those they will certainly be back in the discussion.

My guess is they finish 4-5 down the stretch though.
 
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