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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 967723" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>They’re both kind of good questions.</p><p></p><p>Should we have had a 4-3 instead of a 4-2-5?</p><p>Did we suck because we gave up 450 yards?</p><p></p><p>For the first question, Miami averages about 295 yards through the air and about 210 on the ground. Even though I feel like they’re more dangerous through the air, that’s pretty balanced. I still feel like a speedy receiver would take more advantage of the LB than the running back would take advantage of the nickel.</p><p></p><p>Almost everyone runs a 4-2-5 (nickel) D these days. If it was a big advantage to run against it, why not put a fullback in or go jumbo and force the defense to change? But, no one does that. Maybe it’s not worth it?</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th></th><th></th><th>Pass</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Rush</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Tota</th><th></th><th></th><th>Firs</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Pena</th><th></th><th>Turn</th><th></th><th></th></tr><tr><td>Split</td><td>G</td><td>Cmp</td><td>Att</td><td>Pct</td><td>Yds</td><td>TD</td><td>Att</td><td>Yds</td><td>Avg</td><td>TD</td><td>Plays</td><td>Yds</td><td>Avg</td><td>Pass</td><td>Rush</td><td>Pen</td><td>Tot</td><td>No.</td><td>Yds</td><td>Fum</td><td>Int</td><td>Tot</td></tr><tr><td>Offense</td><td>5</td><td>22.0</td><td>30.0</td><td>73.3</td><td>294.8</td><td>2.4</td><td>37.0</td><td>211.0</td><td>5.7</td><td>2.2</td><td>67.0</td><td>505.8</td><td>7.5</td><td>12.2</td><td>11.0</td><td>1.2</td><td>24.4</td><td>7.2</td><td>70.8</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.8</td><td>1.6</td></tr><tr><td>Defense</td><td>5</td><td>18.0</td><td>32.4</td><td>55.6</td><td>210.2</td><td>0.8</td><td>25.4</td><td>58.2</td><td>2.3</td><td>1.0</td><td>57.8</td><td>268.4</td><td>4.6</td><td>8.2</td><td>3.4</td><td>2.2</td><td>13.8</td><td>7.0</td><td>48.6</td><td>0.6</td><td>1.2</td><td>1.8</td></tr><tr><td>Difference</td><td></td><td>+4.0</td><td>-2.4</td><td>+17.7</td><td>+84.6</td><td>+1.6</td><td>+11.6</td><td>+152.8</td><td>+3.4</td><td>+1.2</td><td>+9.2</td><td>+237.4</td><td>+2.9</td><td>+4.0</td><td>+7.6</td><td>-1.0</td><td>+10.6</td><td>+0.2</td><td>+22.2</td><td>+0.2</td><td>-0.4</td><td>-0.2</td></tr></table><p></p><p></p><p>Provided by <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" target="_blank">CFB at Sports Reference</a>: <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/miami-fl/2023.html?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#team" target="_blank">View Original Table</a></p><p>Generated 10/13/2023.</p><p></p><p>As for “did we suck because we gave up 450 yards”?</p><p>Overall, they converted first downs (<a href="https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401525519" target="_blank">link</a>), and were above average in passing yards. They got 7.7 yards per pass and 4.3 yards per rush. That tell you what you already know—they got a lot of yards.</p><p>They have a low EPA, very few explosive plays (which were always a Miami signature), and they were terrible in the red zone. Like you already know, they didn’t score very much.</p><p>This is “bend but don’t break”, which is great when you don’t break. We didn’t break. It’s pretty good.</p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th>Overall</th><th>GT</th><th>MIAMI</th></tr><tr><td>EPA/Play</td><td>-0.15 23rd %ile</td><td>-0.16 21st %ile</td></tr><tr><td>Success Rate</td><td>37% 29th %ile</td><td>46% 72nd %ile</td></tr><tr><td>Yards/Play</td><td>4.81 22nd %ile</td><td>5.58 44th %ile</td></tr><tr><td>EPA/Dropback</td><td>-0.36 15th %ile</td><td>-0.26 22nd %ile</td></tr><tr><td>EPA/Rush</td><td>0.07 60th %ile</td><td>-0.07 36th %ile</td></tr><tr><td>Yards/Dropback</td><td>5.59 41st %ile</td><td>7.70 76th %ile</td></tr><tr><td>Explosive Play Rate</td><td>8% 47th %ile</td><td>4% 9th %ile</td></tr><tr><td>3rd Down Success Rate</td><td>29% 19th %ile</td><td>44% 58th %ile</td></tr><tr><td>Red Zone Success Rate</td><td>43% 57th %ile</td><td>27% 23rd %ile</td></tr><tr><td>Def Run Stuff Rate</td><td>9% 0th %ile</td><td>20% 9th %ile</td></tr><tr><td>Havoc Rate</td><td>11% 58th %ile</td><td>13% 72nd %ile</td></tr></table><p></p><p>We netted about 11 points in our favor for our 3 turnover advantage. That won us the game. Now, was that luck or skill? I’d say that last fumble was pretty lucky—lots of effort on our part, but still lucky. The interceptions seemed to be skill and strategy. </p><p></p><p>I still think we played a great game, even if luck was a factor. Much more fun to win than to lose. </p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th>Drives</th><th>GT</th><th>Miami</th></tr><tr><td>Total</td><td>12</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>Avg Starting Field Position</td><td>Opp 20</td><td>Own 13</td></tr><tr><td>Plays/Drive</td><td>5.81</td><td>8.05</td></tr><tr><td>Yards/Drive</td><td>32.44</td><td>42.31</td></tr><tr><td>Available Yards %</td><td>161%</td><td>49%</td></tr></table> <table style='width: 100%'><tr><th>Defensive</th><th>GT</th><th>Miami</th></tr><tr><td>Scrimmage Plays</td><td>81</td><td>52</td></tr><tr><td><a href="https://theathletic.com/2419632/2021/03/02/college-football-defense-rankings-stop-rate/" target="_blank">Stop Rate</a></td><td>46%</td><td>35%</td></tr><tr><td>Havoc Plays Created</td><td>9 (11%)</td><td>7 (13%)</td></tr><tr><td> Passing</td><td>6 (16%)</td><td>4 (15%)</td></tr><tr><td> Rushing</td><td>3 (7%)</td><td>3 (12%)</td></tr><tr><td>TFLs Generated</td><td>6</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td> Passing</td><td>3</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td> Rushing</td><td>3</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Sacks Generated</td><td>1 (3%)</td><td>1 (4%)</td></tr><tr><td>Passes Defensed</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Interceptions</td><td>3</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Fumbles Forced</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr></table> <table style='width: 100%'><tr><th>Turnovers</th><th>GT</th><th>Miami</th></tr><tr><td>Turnovers</td><td>2</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td> Fumbles</td><td>1</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td> Fumbles Lost</td><td>0</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td> Fumbles Recovered</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td> Interceptions</td><td>2</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Turnover Margin</td><td>3</td><td>-3</td></tr><tr><td>Expected Turnovers</td><td>0.9</td><td>1.7</td></tr><tr><td>Expected Turnover Margin</td><td>0.7</td><td>-0.7</td></tr><tr><td>Turnover Luck (pts)</td><td>11.4</td><td>-11.4</td></tr></table></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 967723, member: 282"] They’re both kind of good questions. Should we have had a 4-3 instead of a 4-2-5? Did we suck because we gave up 450 yards? For the first question, Miami averages about 295 yards through the air and about 210 on the ground. Even though I feel like they’re more dangerous through the air, that’s pretty balanced. I still feel like a speedy receiver would take more advantage of the LB than the running back would take advantage of the nickel. Almost everyone runs a 4-2-5 (nickel) D these days. If it was a big advantage to run against it, why not put a fullback in or go jumbo and force the defense to change? But, no one does that. Maybe it’s not worth it? [TABLE] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Pass[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Rush[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Tota[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Firs[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Pena[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Turn[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Split[/TD] [TD]G[/TD] [TD]Cmp[/TD] [TD]Att[/TD] [TD]Pct[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]TD[/TD] [TD]Att[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Avg[/TD] [TD]TD[/TD] [TD]Plays[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Avg[/TD] [TD]Pass[/TD] [TD]Rush[/TD] [TD]Pen[/TD] [TD]Tot[/TD] [TD]No.[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Fum[/TD] [TD]Int[/TD] [TD]Tot[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Offense[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]22.0[/TD] [TD]30.0[/TD] [TD]73.3[/TD] [TD]294.8[/TD] [TD]2.4[/TD] [TD]37.0[/TD] [TD]211.0[/TD] [TD]5.7[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]67.0[/TD] [TD]505.8[/TD] [TD]7.5[/TD] [TD]12.2[/TD] [TD]11.0[/TD] [TD]1.2[/TD] [TD]24.4[/TD] [TD]7.2[/TD] [TD]70.8[/TD] [TD]0.8[/TD] [TD]0.8[/TD] [TD]1.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Defense[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]18.0[/TD] [TD]32.4[/TD] [TD]55.6[/TD] [TD]210.2[/TD] [TD]0.8[/TD] [TD]25.4[/TD] [TD]58.2[/TD] [TD]2.3[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]57.8[/TD] [TD]268.4[/TD] [TD]4.6[/TD] [TD]8.2[/TD] [TD]3.4[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]13.8[/TD] [TD]7.0[/TD] [TD]48.6[/TD] [TD]0.6[/TD] [TD]1.2[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Difference[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]+4.0[/TD] [TD]-2.4[/TD] [TD]+17.7[/TD] [TD]+84.6[/TD] [TD]+1.6[/TD] [TD]+11.6[/TD] [TD]+152.8[/TD] [TD]+3.4[/TD] [TD]+1.2[/TD] [TD]+9.2[/TD] [TD]+237.4[/TD] [TD]+2.9[/TD] [TD]+4.0[/TD] [TD]+7.6[/TD] [TD]-1.0[/TD] [TD]+10.6[/TD] [TD]+0.2[/TD] [TD]+22.2[/TD] [TD]+0.2[/TD] [TD]-0.4[/TD] [TD]-0.2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Provided by [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool']CFB at Sports Reference[/URL]: [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/miami-fl/2023.html?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#team']View Original Table[/URL] Generated 10/13/2023. As for “did we suck because we gave up 450 yards”? Overall, they converted first downs ([URL='https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401525519']link[/URL]), and were above average in passing yards. They got 7.7 yards per pass and 4.3 yards per rush. That tell you what you already know—they got a lot of yards. They have a low EPA, very few explosive plays (which were always a Miami signature), and they were terrible in the red zone. Like you already know, they didn’t score very much. This is “bend but don’t break”, which is great when you don’t break. We didn’t break. It’s pretty good. [TABLE] [TR] [TH]Overall[/TH] [TH]GT[/TH] [TH]MIAMI[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]EPA/Play[/TD] [TD]-0.15 23rd %ile[/TD] [TD]-0.16 21st %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Success Rate[/TD] [TD]37% 29th %ile[/TD] [TD]46% 72nd %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yards/Play[/TD] [TD]4.81 22nd %ile[/TD] [TD]5.58 44th %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]EPA/Dropback[/TD] [TD]-0.36 15th %ile[/TD] [TD]-0.26 22nd %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]EPA/Rush[/TD] [TD]0.07 60th %ile[/TD] [TD]-0.07 36th %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yards/Dropback[/TD] [TD]5.59 41st %ile[/TD] [TD]7.70 76th %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Explosive Play Rate[/TD] [TD]8% 47th %ile[/TD] [TD]4% 9th %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3rd Down Success Rate[/TD] [TD]29% 19th %ile[/TD] [TD]44% 58th %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Red Zone Success Rate[/TD] [TD]43% 57th %ile[/TD] [TD]27% 23rd %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Def Run Stuff Rate[/TD] [TD]9% 0th %ile[/TD] [TD]20% 9th %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Havoc Rate[/TD] [TD]11% 58th %ile[/TD] [TD]13% 72nd %ile[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] We netted about 11 points in our favor for our 3 turnover advantage. That won us the game. Now, was that luck or skill? I’d say that last fumble was pretty lucky—lots of effort on our part, but still lucky. The interceptions seemed to be skill and strategy. I still think we played a great game, even if luck was a factor. Much more fun to win than to lose. [TABLE] [TR] [TH]Drives[/TH] [TH]GT[/TH] [TH]Miami[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Avg Starting Field Position[/TD] [TD]Opp 20[/TD] [TD]Own 13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Plays/Drive[/TD] [TD]5.81[/TD] [TD]8.05[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yards/Drive[/TD] [TD]32.44[/TD] [TD]42.31[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Available Yards %[/TD] [TD]161%[/TD] [TD]49%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TH]Defensive[/TH] [TH]GT[/TH] [TH]Miami[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scrimmage Plays[/TD] [TD]81[/TD] [TD]52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][URL='https://theathletic.com/2419632/2021/03/02/college-football-defense-rankings-stop-rate/']Stop Rate[/URL][/TD] [TD]46%[/TD] [TD]35%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Havoc Plays Created[/TD] [TD]9 (11%)[/TD] [TD]7 (13%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Passing[/TD] [TD]6 (16%)[/TD] [TD]4 (15%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Rushing[/TD] [TD]3 (7%)[/TD] [TD]3 (12%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]TFLs Generated[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Passing[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Rushing[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sacks Generated[/TD] [TD]1 (3%)[/TD] [TD]1 (4%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Passes Defensed[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Interceptions[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fumbles Forced[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TH]Turnovers[/TH] [TH]GT[/TH] [TH]Miami[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Turnovers[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Fumbles[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Fumbles Lost[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Fumbles Recovered[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Interceptions[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Turnover Margin[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]-3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Expected Turnovers[/TD] [TD]0.9[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Expected Turnover Margin[/TD] [TD]0.7[/TD] [TD]-0.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Turnover Luck (pts)[/TD] [TD]11.4[/TD] [TD]-11.4[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/QUOTE]
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