uGag, Baseball

[leatherneckjacket]

Let's try this. Let's talk about that time frame from 2006 to the present. Personally I think anyone would have to nuts to complain about the years we had from 2006-2011 but that's a different conversation. I also think 'Anybody can do as well as we have' is peak Paul Finebaum caller hot take. That is also a different conversation.

What has happened across GT sports since the late 2000s? Money flooded college sports and schools needed to invest in their athletic associations to keep up with their peers. We did not. Hence, the bottom basically fell out of everything. We all know what happened to the football team. I'm not a basketball guy but from what I've seen that's a dumpster fire too. Even softball absolutely cratered. The baseball program also dipped. But I don't know why we would expect our baseball team to just keep chugging along at the levels it did when our resource investment was at parity with our competition while every other sports struggles.

So while you and others choose to place 100% of the blame on a single person I think it's wiser to also look at the environment he and the program are operating in. Is CDH blameless? No. Is he the be all end all to our 'struggles'? I'd say that if that was the case the baseball team wouldn't be the only team sport that was able to pull out of the nose dive our sports have found themselves in.

I would agree with you if we did have top 10 recruiting classes and multiple draft picks every year. Unlike basketball and football, the talent is there to succeed. We just underperform every year. We are kind of like ugag before Smart, but in fact, we are worse. Imagine if ugag had only gone to 11 bowls in 15 years, two thirds of them were before Christmas and lost every single one despite having top recruits and draft picks. That is our baseball program right now.

 

[gtbeak]

I’m saying the grass isn’t always greener on the other side. See: Miami, Clemson, UGA, South Carolina, USC, Long Beach State, and many others who replaced long time coaches with plenty of success that have not replicated that success under new coaches.

To be fair, I think the only school you list who replaced a long time successful coach is Clemson. Miami and South Carolina had their coach either retire (Miami) or move along to a different opportunity (South Carolina), while UGa fired a coach who HAD NOT done well at all. I have no remembrance of USC or Long Beach State being real successful in quite a while, but don't follow them all that closely.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I’m saying the grass isn’t always greener on the other side. See: Miami, Clemson, UGA, South Carolina, USC, Long Beach State, and many others who replaced long time coaches with plenty of success that have not replicated that success under new coaches.

You need to stop with Miami. The coach there is in his fourth year and is doing well.

Also, what succes are you talking? We have not had success since 2006. We have been a below .500 team in conference since 2012. If the next coach fails, we fire him and find someone else like Clemson just did with Lee. My gut tells me we have a great one in Ramsey and would be dumb to let him slip away.

Either way, settling for mediocrity while wasting top talent is just plain stupid in my opinion

 

[LargeFO]

No. I'm going off my nearly 10 years () of posting on this very message board and others, social media, and interacting with both GT and non-GT fans who follow college baseball. This thread was relatively tame until you showed up.


I don't think that at all. It's certainly possible. I also think some other coaches could have done a lot worse and that's a more likely outcome of the two possibilities. Reasonable minds can disagree there. No biggie.

The way you've reacted to such an innocuous post is what I meant by odd. Y'all get so bowed up when someone pushes against the 'CDH is the worst' circlejerk. It's like clockwork. I feel like you and I have had this discussion like at least three times. Why don't you try engaging with what I am actually saying instead of choosing the worst possible interpretation of it and getting so aggressive?

I mean I could likewise say it's clockwork for you, @FredJacket and others to spin everything as positive when it comes to Hall. There is also a noticeable overlap when it comes to Pastner excuse-making & Hall. I feel a lot like @Peacone36 where you're the bad guy if you have higher expectations. I definitely have higher expectations the past decade+ with the results we've had in both of those. Do I think they are unreasonable or ridiculous expectations? Not in the least. No way. It is what it is, I suppose.

 

[Squints]

I mean I could likewise say it's clockwork for you, @FredJacket and others to spin everything as positive when it comes to Hall. There is also a noticeable overlap when it comes to Pastner excuse-making & Hall. I feel a lot like @Peacone36 where you're the bad guy if you have higher expectations. I definitely have higher expectations the past decade+ with the results we've had in both of those. Do I think they are unreasonable or ridiculous expectations? Not in the least. No way. It is what it is, I suppose.

Oh please.

I have criticized Hall many times over the years for various things. That's on you if you missed it and that's on you if not thinking everything is a constant disaster is 'spinning everything as a positive.'

Like I said engage with what I'm actually saying rather then whatever words you're putting my mouth.

 

[LargeFO]

Oh please.

I have criticized Hall many times over the years for various things. That's on you if you missed it and that's on you if not thinking everything is a constant disaster is 'spinning everything as a positive.'

Like I said engage with what I'm actually saying rather then whatever words you're putting my mouth.

Ha, sorry don’t have our interactions from years ago on a message forum memorized. (Who cares??)

 

[Squints]

I would agree with you if we did have top 10 recruiting classes and multiple draft picks every year. Unlike basketball and football, the talent is there to succeed. We just underperform every year. We are kind of like ugag before Smart, but in fact, we are worse. Imagine if ugag had only gone to 11 bowls in 15 years, two thirds of them were before Christmas and lost every single one despite having top recruits and draft picks. That is our baseball program right now.

I get where you're coming from I just don't see it that way. Personally, I don't think baseball recruiting rankings are worth ****. If major league teams who spend millions of dollars and hundreds if not thousands on man hours looking at players consistently miss more then they hit on their evaluations I don't think we should treat perfect game rankings as if they're gospel. It's also related to my own personal theory that baseball talent in Georgia is overrated but, again, that's a whole different discussion.

I'm also not a huge fan of comparisons between baseball and basketball/football just because the sports are so different. A more talented team in the latter two sports should wins like 85% of the time and and in baseball it's like 55% of the time. Those numbers are pulled out of my *** but I think you know what I mean. There's a lot more variance in outcomes inherent to the sport which can exacerbate itself when compressed to tournament play sample sizes.

I guess I just don't have as high an opinion of GT's inherent ceiling as some of our fans. I was a college baseball fan long before I was a GT fan and never thought of GT some sort of power awash with potential. There was a great 6 year run but outside that Tech has always been in the good but not quite great tier in my eyes. Don't think it's a coincidence Jim Morris had to leave to get over the hump but that was way before my time. Doesn't mean it can't happen though.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I get where you're coming from I just don't see it that way. Personally, I don't think baseball recruiting rankings are worth ****. If major league teams who spend millions of dollars and hundreds if not thousands on man hours looking at players consistently miss more then they hit on their evaluations I don't think we should treat perfect game rankings as if they're gospel. It's also related to my own personal theory that baseball talent in Georgia is overrated but, again, that's a whole different discussion.

I'm also not a huge fan of comparisons between baseball and basketball/football just because the sports are so different. A more talented team in the latter two sports should wins like 85% of the time and and in baseball it's like 55% of the time. Those numbers are pulled out of my *** but I think you know what I mean. There's a lot more variance in outcomes inherent to the sport which can exacerbate itself when compressed to tournament play sample sizes.

I guess I just don't have as high an opinion of GT's inherent ceiling as some of our fans. I was a college baseball fan long before I was a GT fan and never thought of GT some sort of power awash with potential. There was a great 6 year run but outside that Tech has always been in the good but not quite great tier in my eyes. Don't think it's a coincidence Jim Morris had to leave to get over the hump but that was way before my time. Doesn't mean it can't happen though.

The teams are not drafting our players because they had high rankings coming out of high school. They are drafting them based on their play at Tech. Recruit grades in baseball are about as accurate as football, which is to say potentially highly inaccurate at a micro level but directionally pretty accurate at a macro level. If you think we have not underperformed relative to our talent or you are not dissatisfied wth our results over the past decade, then i am not sure what there is worth discussing.

 

[MWBATL]

Baseball is the weirdest and sometimes the most random of all the sports. While all GT fans would want to see better post-season results, heck...even better regular season results...it's a game where the best team simply doesn't win with the same statistical regularity that they do in other sports.

How often does the MLB team with the best regular season record win the World Series? About 25% of the time over the past 50 years. Does that make 75% of those managers terrible managers? Nope. Bobby Cox managed the Braces for 20 years and won all of 1 WS. He had a losing record overall in the post-season (64-65). Yet somehow he has been elected the baseball's HOF.

There have been times when I criticized Hall, especially for our pitching woes. I think that criticism is valid. But we also start every with the EXPECTATION that we will get an NCAA Tournament bid. Name me ANY other sport that GT fields where that is the case?

The top 20% of programs earn NCAA bids each year in baseball. We usually do. In football, that would essentially have us in the Top 25 every year. If we had a football coach who had that track record, we'd put a statue up and name the stadium after him.

I agree our post-season results have disappointed. I agree we may have under-performed in some years. I also wonder if we haven't over-performed and over-estimate dour own talent levels at times. Let's face it, how many GT pitchers are in MLB right now? While 3 guys have had cups of coffee, only one has had any significant MLB time (Buck Farmer, who has a losing recored and lifetime ERA over 5). Maybe we just simply haven't had the talent at that position over the years. It shows.

Bottom line, I think after thinking about the pros and cons, that Hall is indeed someone who has reached a consistent level of success that most sports teams at GT would love to have.

We'd always want more.

PS--players on opening day rosters in MLB in 2020...UNC 15, Virginia 17, Clemson 11, Louisville 11, Uga 8, GT 7. We actually rank 31st of all colleges on that list. Maybe our talent over the years hasn't really been so great anyway?

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

The teams are not drafting our players because they had high rankings coming out of high school. They are drafting them based on their play at Tech. Recruit grades in baseball are about as accurate as football, which is to say potentially highly inaccurate at a micro level but directionally pretty accurate at a macro level. If you think we have not underperformed relative to our talent or you are not dissatisfied wth our results over the past decade, then i am not sure what there is worth discussing.

Yes they are. And, for all of the accolades as to how great a hitting team we have been, and how much talent we always have, and how many guys we have drafted every year, how many former GT hitters are currently playing in MLB? I can think of Blackmon and Bart. Last I knew, Palka was hanging on in the fringes, not sure if he still is. If there are others, please let me know. Yes, we have guys that are in the minors that seem to have promising careers at the moment, but how many of those will actually make it? So are our players actually out performing their talents at GT and then reverting when they get into pro ball? Is Danny Hall, or his hitting coaches over the years, a better coach than most of the hitting coaches in pro ball? Just curious, because they ARE getting drafted based on their play at Tech, but their play after Tech does not match their play AT Tech. Just my opinion though.

 

[FredJacket]

@leatherneckjacket

You've made a compelling case. I too am impressed with your brute force analysis. The postseason stuff is for me very frustrating... & you too obviously. I'll repeat VERY VERY frustrating.

I'd bet our only disagreement comes down to the "so what?". The data is laid out for us. I assume we both watch many/most of the games throughout the seasons & post season. So why have the postseason results been what they are? What (if anything) should be different? & what to do about it going forward to rectify it?

As a read through your breakdown (the initial one) & before I finished I said to myself... "Holy crap... could any team have worse luck" ...then lo & behold you end it dismissing luck as any significant possibility. (see other's post on format & draw etc)

I believe others here have articulated really well some "explanations" on why we've come up short. I do think bad luck has been a big factor... as much as I hate surrendering to the data with that conclusion. Luck is not the only factor. I'll hit on the biggest...imo.

Pitching is huge in postseason. Pitching has been our bugaboo forever. I think the head coach should be held accountable & part of Hall's legacy will account for that. Then 4(?) years ago he got "permission" (& budget) to upgrade the technology we have & hire a much better pitching coach...right on the heels of upgrading the asst coach (Ramsey). I am not aware of anyone (at the time) who didn't applaud EVERYTHING related to those changes. So far... that (pitching) hasn't met expectations.

My main point there is you are talking about change as the fix. I feel like that was almost as significant a change as you're seeking but we're still 0-fer in regionals.

So for me. I am not a grass must be greener guy on this. And that's the rub. After watching this team (under Hall) over the years win more than they lose... get to postseason regularly... host occasionally... I think Hall gets them in position to win (even in postseason) consistently. As a fan... that is all I ask/want. I can't explain what happens in June. I wish I could. FRUSTRATING.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Yes they are. And, for all of the accolades as to how great a hitting team we have been, and how much talent we always have, and how many guys we have drafted every year, how many former GT hitters are currently playing in MLB? I can think of Blackmon and Bart. Last I knew, Palka was hanging on in the fringes, not sure if he still is. If there are others, please let me know. Yes, we have guys that are in the minors that seem to have promising careers at the moment, but how many of those will actually make it? So are our players actually out performing their talents at GT and then reverting when they get into pro ball? Is Danny Hall, or his hitting coaches over the years, a better coach than most of the hitting coaches in pro ball? Just curious, because they ARE getting drafted based on their play at Tech, but their play after Tech does not match their play AT Tech. Just my opinion though.

I think players are drafted on their play AND their potential. Look at Maxwell, not good stats but a lot of potential if he gets better control. Here's the listing of GT players drafted (since 1958 and I think that was the first one drafted at GT). GT had like 76 players drafted since 2008. And I remember comparisons where we were the one highest schools in drafted players in the last 10 - 20 years. I don't think our RPI has averaged as high as our relative ranking of drafted players but haven't done the study. Just another observational bias expectation.

This list is cool as it shows where the players are now and their history.

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/college_history/20124/drafted/

@leatherneckjacket

You've made a compelling case. I too am impressed with your brute force analysis. The postseason stuff is for me very frustrating... & you too obviously. I'll repeat VERY VERY frustrating.

I'd bet our only disagreement comes down to the "so what?". The data is laid out for us. I assume we both watch many/most of the games throughout the seasons & post season. So why have the postseason results been what they are? What (if anything) should be different? & what to do about it going forward to rectify it?

As a read through your breakdown (the initial one) & before I finished I said to myself... "Holy crap... could any team have worse luck" ...then lo & behold you end it dismissing luck as any significant possibility. (see other's post on format & draw etc)

I believe others here have articulated really well some "explanations" on why we've come up short. I do think bad luck has been a big factor... as much as I hate surrendering to the data with that conclusion. Luck is not the only factor. I'll hit on the biggest...imo.

Pitching is huge in postseason. Pitching has been our bugaboo forever. I think the head coach should be held accountable & part of Hall's legacy will account for that. Then 4(?) years ago he got "permission" (& budget) to upgrade the technology we have & hire a much better pitching coach...right on the heels of upgrading the asst coach (Ramsey). I am not aware of anyone (at the time) who didn't applaud EVERYTHING related to those changes. So far... that (pitching) hasn't met expectations.

My main point there is you are talking about change as the fix. I feel like that was almost as significant a change as you're seeking but we're still 0-fer in regionals.

So for me. I am not a grass must be greener guy on this. And that's the rub. After watching this team (under Hall) over the years win more than they lose... get to postseason regularly... host occasionally... I think Hall gets them in position to win (even in postseason) consistently. As a fan... that is all I ask/want. I can't explain what happens in June. I wish I could. FRUSTRATING.

One example not brought up yet is Martin going to FSU and us getting Hall. That worked out very well for a while, now just good. The grass can be greener but probably isn't; but like you I'm very very frustrated with the continued pitching performance. I expected better in year 4 of DBo (really less given COVID).

I'll vouch that @FredJacket gets frustrated with our program.

 

[gtbeak]

I think players are drafted on their play AND their potential. Look at Maxwell, not good stats but a lot of potential if he gets better control. Here's the listing of GT players drafted (since 1958 and I think that was the first one drafted at GT). GT had like 76 players drafted since 2008. And I remember comparisons where we were the one highest schools in drafted players in the last 10 - 20 years. I don't think our RPI has averaged as high as our relative ranking of drafted players but haven't done the study. Just another observational bias expectation.

This list is cool as it shows where the players are now and their history.

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/college_history/20124/drafted/



One example not brought up yet is Martin going to FSU and us getting Hall. That worked out very well for a while, now just good. The grass can be greener but probably isn't; but like you I'm very very frustrated with the continued pitching performance. I expected better in year 4 of DBo (really less given COVID).

I'll vouch that @FredJacket gets frustrated with our program.

Nuke, what does Mike Martin at FSU and Danny Hall at Tech have to do with one another? Not following you there.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Nuke, what does Mike Martin at FSU and Danny Hall at Tech have to do with one another? Not following you there.

The point was we lost a good coach in Martin and got another in Hall. Sometimes the grass on the other side isn't dead. Hall did very well for a while.

I agree that Hall retiring won't fix what has emerged as a larger issue; namely being NIL competitive.

 

[The Doddfather]

Morris to Miami?

 

[MWBATL]

Morris to Miami?

Shhhh, he's on a roll......

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Baseball is the weirdest and sometimes the most random of all the sports. While all GT fans would want to see better post-season results, heck...even better regular season results...it's a game where the best team simply doesn't win with the same statistical regularity that they do in other sports.

How often does the MLB team with the best regular season record win the World Series? About 25% of the time over the past 50 years. Does that make 75% of those managers terrible managers? Nope. Bobby Cox managed the Braces for 20 years and won all of 1 WS. He had a losing record overall in the post-season (64-65). Yet somehow he has been elected the baseball's HOF.

There have been times when I criticized Hall, especially for our pitching woes. I think that criticism is valid. But we also start every with the EXPECTATION that we will get an NCAA Tournament bid. Name me ANY other sport that GT fields where that is the case?

The top 20% of programs earn NCAA bids each year in baseball. We usually do. In football, that would essentially have us in the Top 25 every year. If we had a football coach who had that track record, we'd put a statue up and name the stadium after him.

I agree our post-season results have disappointed. I agree we may have under-performed in some years. I also wonder if we haven't over-performed and over-estimate dour own talent levels at times. Let's face it, how many GT pitchers are in MLB right now? While 3 guys have had cups of coffee, only one has had any significant MLB time (Buck Farmer, who has a losing recored and lifetime ERA over 5). Maybe we just simply haven't had the talent at that position over the years. It shows.

Bottom line, I think after thinking about the pros and cons, that Hall is indeed someone who has reached a consistent level of success that most sports teams at GT would love to have.

We'd always want more.

PS--players on opening day rosters in MLB in 2020...UNC 15, Virginia 17, Clemson 11, Louisville 11, Uga 8, GT 7. We actually rank 31st of all colleges on that list. Maybe our talent over the years hasn't really been so great anyway?

This post hits the nail on the head for me.

And I would add:

Post season play in particular seems to be a random crap shoot in college baseball. I can remember a few years where Cremins underperformed in basketball post season play and, disappointed as we all were, we understood that they don’t call it “March Madness” for nothing. Having a string of college baseball playoff flops seems well within a standard distribution of statistical results given this sport.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Morris to Miami?

Hey, they both start with M. Morris, Martin, whatever.

Point is Morris left GT and Hall replaced him. Sorry for the confusion of my brain. All day meetings leave little time for focusing on important things.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

There have been times when I criticized Hall, especially for our pitching woes. I think that criticism is valid. But we also start every with the EXPECTATION that we will get an NCAA Tournament bid. Name me ANY other sport that GT fields where that is the case?

I think that criticism is valid as well, and with many different pitching coaches.

And golf. Although there are some that don't consider golf a sport...

 

[THWG]

I think that criticism is valid as well, and with many different pitching coaches.

And golf. Although there are some that don't consider golf a sport...

Those some have never tried to hit a golf ball.