Two general College Baseball questions for more experienced followers

[GT_ATL]

I've only been following college baseball for a couple of years (starting with the Farmer/Palka/Evans team a few years ago) and keep having the same couple of questions about the sport nag at me.

1. Why aren't midweek games particularly high-scoring?

You'd think games that feature a high-powered conference team hitting off a meh mid-major's bullpen would be a festive affair, but they don't seem to be any more high scoring than a typical Saturday or Sunday game. Why? How do mid majors have the pitching depth to keep a program like GT from rolling over them? Case in point: Ohio brought out TEN pitchers against GT, and presumably none of them were their main starters, and gave up 7 runs in 12 innings. How did GT's starters not put up like 30 runs on these surely-marginal pitchers?

2. Does anyone have any idea who will make it to the big leagues/who is a legitimate pro prospect?

I guess my question is, *when* did people know that Teixeira/Blackmon/Weiters/etc were something special? Did they come in right in with a lot of hype and dominate from day one, or were they fairly normal players at first? Without the hype machine that follows college basketball and football it's hard to get a feel for when a guy has a chance to be a pro player. Good example of my question is Buck Farmer- he was presumably just a normal player, did midweek games as a freshman/soph, etc etc and then by his senior year he was dominant and then a year later he was starting games for Detroit. Did Farmer have a lot of hype? Is a guy like Kel Johnson considered a sure thing to at least make it to AA or AAA, for example?

 

[augustabuzz]

1. It's not unusual for Tech. to face the other team's ace in a midweek game or Johnny Wholestaff.

2.I knew early on Tex and Weiters. I was late on Blackmon.

 

[MWBATL]

1. Sometimes it does happen that a top team blows out a lesser team in weekday games. Just doesn't happen always. Really depends on who the "weaker" team throws out there. One advantage of pitching Johnny Wholestaff is that our hitters never get to see any one pitcher long enough to get a bead on him and know what to look for. This can also be a factor in weekend games, as pitchers often have more trouble the second time through the lineup.
2. I'm no expert, but you will often see scouts with their radar guns directly behind home plate checking out the guys who are playing.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I'm not experienced (@College Baseball) but here goes:

1. Mid-week games scoring. I don't know the stats for mid week games versus weekend games. I would agree that "most" teams during the regular part of conference play season put their 4th person in rotation or it's a staff day. So you would expect during the conference play season for what you say to be true. In the pre-season type non-conference play, I think teams are more likely to "tune" up their ace pitchers like Auburn did against us.

Although it would not affect statistics as a whole, I think that the quality of opponent makes a difference. The better the opponent for a mid week game, the better the pitcher you put in if you have the luxury. But there isn't that much leeway once you get into the regular season since coaches/pitchers like consistent starts.

My immediate thoughts, I'll poke around the stats during the game tonight.

2. You know you have a good player when you see him play. There are oddles of scouts out there and the draft as well as Perfect Game/ other scouting services which should be the best indication of how a player is doing in HS. Two cases I can think of:

• A player is drafted and you can look at his draft sheet before college and subsequent performance in the pros.
  • My absolute favorite data base for the draft is http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draf...0&Signed=&Active=&Source=&Bats=&Throws=&Sort=
  • This link goes to GT, but you can change the selections and go to any team.
  • Look at Buck, he wasn't drafted out of HS but was as a Jr (485) and then as a Sr (156). He developed.
  • Look at Teixeira, Blackmon and Weiters, also not drafted out of HS.
  • Generally if they are drafted in the first two to four rounds, they have high potential to be a star on a college team. But most of those players go to the MLB (minors) I think without going to college. (There are so many players and so few MLB spots that being a star on a MLB team is no where near preordained.)
  • But I'd guess that for the vast majority of players, you just don't know until you know. (Yogism) Either they can develop or not. Or be highly ranked and get hurt like Smelter.
• A player who isn't drafted but is ranked very highly by the recruiting services.
  • This is the top 100-200 players each year, the vast majority of whom are drafted. Out of the top 100 Perfect Game rated, like almost all of 8 who had committed to GT before Kel went to the MLB. Similar with other teams, except UVa and Vandy seem to keep more of their top 100.
  • This should be very few players, but the one who forced this realization on me is Kel. Not drafted, there are reports as to why (said only go to Braves) but I don't know for sure. We know Kel can hit against most of the pitchers he has faced (didn't do well against Auburn ace with 3 SOs in 4 ABs, but no one did).

Sorry for the ramble and now I'm late .......

 

[thwgjacket]

Idk about #2 but I can give some insight on #1. I played at a big baseball school. When we played smaller schools during the week a lot of them would use a Tuesday game as a "live pen" day. So we'd see 2 of their weekend starters for an inning or 2 followed by their top relievers for an inning each.
I don't follow GT baseball so I don't know who they've been playing but it's also possible that the "mid-majors" they've been playing are good baseball schools.
If neither of those are the answer then I guess I'd go with it just being baseball. Even your worst pitchers in college get guys out 6.5 out of every 10 times. So it's possible Tech is just cold right now.

 

[gtrower]

Midweek games are very unpredictable. Tech (and other bigtime programs) usually uses them to develop younger pitchers. You'll see us tossing a lot of FR and SO guys (mainly Schneiderjans and Parr this year). But you never know with our opponents. Smaller programs looking to get a W over a big name like Tech might throw their ace. Auburn even threw their ace against us a few weeks ago which I thought was a strange move, but he stifled us.

In the broad scheme of things, weekday games matter a lot less. They might make a difference if you're a bubble team, but if you're 22-8 in the ACC, a few losses to bad teams midweek aren't going to affect you getting a regional / super regional site.

That being said these wins against Southern are always nice because they are a good program that usually finishes with a good record. RPI wins so to speak.

 

[MWBATL]

By the way, in 6 of 9 midweek games played last night by ACC teams, 6 of them hit double figures in scoring. That is dramatically higher than weekend scoring results.

 

[Squints]

1. Why aren't midweek games particularly high-scoring?

You'd think games that feature a high-powered conference team hitting off a meh mid-major's bullpen would be a festive affair, but they don't seem to be any more high scoring than a typical Saturday or Sunday game. Why? How do mid majors have the pitching depth to keep a program like GT from rolling over them? Case in point: Ohio brought out TEN pitchers against GT, and presumably none of them were their main starters, and gave up 7 runs in 12 innings. How did GT's starters not put up like 30 runs on these surely-marginal pitchers?

Well first off, the talent gap isn't always as large as you think. A few years ago they reduced the amount of scholarships you could give for baseball and that led to the talent being more spread out among schools. Second, baseball is a fluky game and you fail more often than you succeed. Sometimes even against a bad pitcher you just don't get the hits. Thirdly, they changed the bats right around the time you started watching which totally sapped offense out of the game. They started using a new ball this year which appears to have alleviated that somewhat. And finally I think your expectations are totally out of whack. We've averaged 9 runs a game vs the mid majors so far this year. That's great. Nine runs should be enough to win you any game easily. And expecting to consistently score more than that, let alone 30 runs, is setting yourself up for disappointment. It just doesn't happen.

2. Does anyone have any idea who will make it to the big leagues/who is a legitimate pro prospect?

I guess my question is, *when* did people know that Teixeira/Blackmon/Weiters/etc were something special? Did they come in right in with a lot of hype and dominate from day one, or were they fairly normal players at first? Without the hype machine that follows college basketball and football it's hard to get a feel for when a guy has a chance to be a pro player. Good example of my question is Buck Farmer- he was presumably just a normal player, did midweek games as a freshman/soph, etc etc and then by his senior year he was dominant and then a year later he was starting games for Detroit. Did Farmer have a lot of hype? Is a guy like Kel Johnson considered a sure thing to at least make it to AA or AAA, for example?

Generally you get this info from web sites that follow this kind of stuff like Baseball America. They keep a running list of the top draft prospects and take will mention the professional chances of players in game write-ups and Q&A sessions. Other people like Keith Law will comment every once in a while. Just gotta keep an eye out for it.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

One other thing I thought of last night - mid-week games will be higher scoring since the best defensive players aren't in for any of the teams. It is generally a time to try out people and different positions since the games don't matter as much as conference games. And rest up starters for the weekend.