Turnovers: Why We Were So Good in 2014

[GTNavyNuke]

Here's an article written by Bill Connelly on turnovers. As he says, he does this every year since turnovers are so important. http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/1/30/7947287/college-football-turnover-luck-2014-tcu-oklahoma

This last year we were +11 in turnovers. We easily won a bunch of games because of turnovers .... Ga Southern, UGAg, etc. And lost one to the Flukies. But because of how we played, 8.7 of those 11 turnovers were "earned".

That's because you expect to get the ball half the time it is fumbled and on the ground. That's whether you or they put it on the ground. And we put it on the ground less. We had 20 fumbles which was 96th in the country - and damn impressive given how much (all but 12 plays a game) we run. http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category17/sort01.html

We were 11th last year at forcing fumbles at 16 but we were unfortunate that our opponents only had 4 unforced fumbles. We will probably get luckier next year with more unforced fumbles.( http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category22/sort01.html ).

And you expect to get interceptions about 22% of the time you defend (e.g. knock down or intercept) a pass. Our D intercepted 27% of the defended passes. And JT was only intercepted 23%. But since we don't pass a lot, that's a big advantage.

So turnovers * matter.



*stars in recruiting matter overall too, but I'll wait for Bill Connelly's next update on that

 

[Longestday]

We improved significantly over 2013 in interceptions thrown. This really helped!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

We were good in all four phases, relatively few times per play we put the ball on the ground, good forcing of opponents fumbles, good int rate and few ints thrown (on few passes).

"It is better to die a young man than to fumble the football."

 

[DC Bee]

And JT was only intercepted 23%. But since we don't pass a lot, that's a big advantage.

And 2 of those INTs, one each in the Dook and F$U games, were when JT was trying to throw the ball away out of bounds. We probably won't see that mistake next year.

 

[Eric]

And 2 of those INTs, one each in the Dook and F$U games, were when JT was trying to throw the ball away out of bounds. We probably won't see that mistake next year.

3 counting Miss St.

 

[RamblinCharger]

3 counting Miss St.

Let's hope he figures that out. That was the only negative thing that I can think of that he did this year. Just throw it into the 3rd row or take the sack if needed. Live to fight another down.

 

[jacketup]

Lack of injuries: Why we were so good in 2014

 

[Yaller Jacket]

This is no doubt a big part of 2014, but not as fun to talk about as the blocking, improved pass game, JT's running and so on. I know PJ says at the end of every radio show that turnovers are one of his big three factors in the upcoming game. Being a Tech fans has made me notice just how few possessions each team has in a game. When you give up one of yours, and don't get the chance to put 40 yards between the other team and your end zone.... well, can't be good.

The thing about turnovers is they are hard to characterize. You have the poorly thrown ball, the butterfingers drop by a back. Then you have the drop caused by a hard tackle, or the pick caused by pressure on the quarterback. In other words, some you can take some credit for causing, but others are more pure luck.

Next year we have a chance to keep this up. We got more than our share of interceptions this year, and that with a pretty anemic pass rush. If our DEs develop over the off season, we could even improve on turnovers.

 

[Eastman]

Lack of injuries: Why we were so good in 2014

And when they did occur, it was often in an area of depth such as b-back and a-back. If for example instead of Zenon, Snoddy and Lasky it had been Gotsis, Gamble and Freeman that were each out for a few weeks, we would have been much more likely to have lost some close games.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

@jacketup and @Yaller Jacket , when I wrote the title I was only thinking of why we were so good at turnovers. I didn't mean to imply that turnovers were most of the reason we were so good overall.

Turnovers helped but one of the best Os in the country was the main reason.

Yes turnovers are luck - when the ball is on the ground it's a 50/50 shot to get it. So if you don't put it on the ground and force the other team to put it on the ground, you help out your luck. Same thing with ints. If you don't pass the ball as much or force the ball when you do, you'll do better in the int area.

I was surprised that our 8.7 "Adjusted TO Margin" or the expected number of turnovers based on fumbles and defended passes was the fifth highest in the country..... Oregon was the best that I saw. I expect us to do well in turnovers next year because of the style of play on O and D. At least I hope so!

 

[gtg936g]

Being +11 is also impressive when you consider we limit the # of possessions each game. I would bet that opponents turnover/possession ratio is higher for GT than for Oregon.

 

[Ggee87]

This is the 1st season in a long while I remember us doing so well in forcing TOs. Not those ticky tack Ugag hold em up and strip TOs either. These were legit TOs that we usually turned into points. With an offense like ours, I have a feeling the impact of TOs is even more magnified in importance. Almost counting as double against them and FOR us.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

This is the 1st season in a long while I remember us doing so well in forcing TOs. Not those ticky tack Ugag hold em up and strip TOs either. These were legit TOs that we usually turned into points. With an offense like ours, I have a feeling the impact of TOs is even more magnified in importance. Almost counting as double against them and FOR us.

Agree. In the Orange Bowl early in the third quarter Mississippi State was playing from behind and ended up going for it on fourth and long. The point is they had already acknowledged to themselves on some level that they were only getting the ball a few more times. Sure enough, after they failed on fourth down Tech marched the length of the field to go up by over two touchdowns. After that Tech forced a fumble on a vicious hit by Golden and Tech was quickly up by 22 and the game was over even with a quarter and a half of football left to play. You could just see it on the faces of the Mississippi State players, coaches and fans that they knew it was over because they would never have enough possessions with enough time to close this gap.

 

[MidtownJacket]

Agree. In the Orange Bowl early in the third quarter Mississippi State was playing from behind and ended up going for it on fourth and long. The point is they had already acknowledged to themselves on some level that they were only getting the ball a few more times. Sure enough, after they failed on fourth down Tech marched the length of the field to go up by over two touchdowns. After that Tech forced a fumble on a vicious hit by Golden and Tech was quickly up by 22 and the game was over even with a quarter and a half of football left to play. You could just see it on the faces of the Mississippi State players, coaches and fans that they knew it was over because they would never have enough possessions with enough time to close this gap.

Which is what makes this team so much fun to watch. CPJ basically dares the Defensive Coordinator to sell out to stop one thing and then exploits the inherent weakness in whatever scheme they use to bring extra coverage. Now we have Teddy Roof switching defensive fronts and approaches to take advantage of the offensive coordinators trying to get a score as they grow more and more aggressive for fear of limited possessions remaining.

It is a beautiful thing.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Which is what makes this team so much fun to watch. CPJ basically dares the Defensive Coordinator to sell out to stop one thing and then exploits the inherent weakness in whatever scheme they use to bring extra coverage. Now we have Teddy Roof switching defensive fronts and approaches to take advantage of the offensive coordinators trying to get a score as they grow more and more aggressive for fear of limited possessions remaining.

It is a beautiful thing.

Yes it is, yes it is.

 

[herb]

Turnovers do matter, but they also tend to even out over the long haul. If any of you read Phil Steele, one of his biggest indicators ( I am sure he did not come up with it, but it was the first time I paid attention to it) in looking for surprise teams or teams likely to disappoint is to look for the teams that either did much better or worse than you would expect and go the other way. It is a useful indicator.

 

[alaguy]

The short answer to our few TOs was ---SENIORS--- mainly handling the ball (fumbles)with a exceptional QB--think about it-- 3 SR bbacks, 4 Sr abacks and 2 SR WRs--they have learned how to protect ball---er, lets see what happens next yr with the newcomers ,hmmmm

 

[iceeater1969]

The short answer to our few TOs was ---SENIORS--- mainly handling the ball (fumbles)with a exceptional QB--think about it-- 3 SR bbacks, 4 Sr abacks and 2 SR WRs--they have learned how to protect ball---er, lets see what happens next yr with the newcomers ,hmmmm

Don't forget the change at qb - sure seems a lot smoother and pitches are on target so backs have heads up when catching the pitch. . Maybe it's the bb and ab but sure seems like the difference is the qb.

 

[TechPhi97]

And when they did occur, it was often in an area of depth such as b-back and a-back. If for example instead of Zenon, Snoddy and Lasky it had been Gotsis, Gamble and Freeman that were each out for a few weeks, we would have been much more likely to have lost some close games.

If you asked me in September I wouldn't have called B-back a position with depth. Leggett was very close to losing the red shirt. Days' transformation was one of the more amazing things I've seen from a player on one of our teams; he basically decided he was good and started running over people.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Before the season started there were two areas on offense that people had concerns over. One was at A-back, which with hindsight seems ridiculous but which, at the time, seemed like a potential drop off with Godhigh graduating. The other position was QB. Justin had no experience as a starter and we were told in so many words that the offense was changing again after the departure of Lee. Beyond that everyone was hoping the offensive line could improve but still fearing the rash of injuries that we had in past seasons.

Defense, especially with the off season attrition, everyone knew would be horrible. What we underestimated was how much fight they would have. They never gave up on going after the ball and they hit hard all season long. And they kept getting better.

The biggest intangible, and the one that in my trumps all the others, was that the team believed in each other and was determined to not let anyone get down on themselves. They remained the most positive, loving team I have ever seen. If that same level of team spirit continues this season the team might even go undefeated. It will all depend on how the veterans lead and how the new guys respond.

Funny how hard it is to predict exactly how these things will play out.