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Turnovers and Special Teams
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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 958964" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>More stats-nerdiness, based on the expected points and WPA, from <a href="https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401525462" target="_blank">GameOnPaper</a>.</p><p></p><p>It’s not turnovers, but I’ll start with special teams. Punting was a net positive, but FG and kickoffs hurt. Based on field position, our kickoff units just about cost us a touchdown—between back field position for us and good field position for them. We’d have been much better off fair catching everything.</p><p></p><p>Punting was surprisingly a bright spot.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]14694[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>Here are the turnover plays. The Louisville turnover was had a fair shot at minor points for us. Our turnovers were much more painful that Louisville’s one turnover</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td><strong>Quarter</strong></td><td><strong>Team</strong></td><td><strong>Play</strong></td><td><strong>EPA</strong></td><td><strong>WP%</strong></td><td><strong>WPA%</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Q4 3:51</td><td><a href="https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/year/2023/team/59" target="_blank"><img src="https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/59.png" alt="ESPN team id 59" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a></td><td>(1st & 10 at LOU 16) Haynes King sacked by Dezmond Tell for a loss of 10 yards to the LOU 26 Haynes King fumbled, forced by Dezmond Tell, recovered by LOU Kameron Wilson , return for 0 yards - LOU 29, GT 28</td><td>-5.66</td><td>70.2%</td><td>-42.9%</td></tr><tr><td>Q1 13:43</td><td><a href="https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/year/2023/team/59" target="_blank"><img src="https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/59.png" alt="ESPN team id 59" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a></td><td>(3rd & 3 at GT 25) Haynes King pass intercepted Ramon Puryear return for a loss of 1 yard to the GT 27 - LOU 0, GT 0</td><td>-4.38</td><td>22.9%</td><td>-2.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Q2 0:05</td><td><a href="https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/year/2023/team/97" target="_blank"><img src="https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/97.png" alt="ESPN team id 97" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a></td><td>(3rd & 5 at LOU 18) Jack Plummer pass intercepted Clayton Powell-Lee return for no gain to the LOU 37 - LOU 13, GT 28</td><td>-1.85</td><td>22.2%</td><td>-1.3%</td></tr></table><p></p><p><strong><u><span style="font-size: 18px">The fourth quarter sack was huge</span></u></strong></p><p>Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)</p><p>Yards to End Zone (Before -> After):16 -> 74</p><p>Started Drive at: GT 0</p><p>ExpPts (After - Before = Added):-1.14 - 4.53 = -5.66</p><p>Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.53)</p><p>Score Difference (End): 1 (2.14)</p><p>Change of Possession: 1</p><p>Score: LOU 29, GT 28</p><p>Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards</p><p><strong>Win Probability (Before): 70.2%</strong></p><p><strong>Win Probability (After): 27.3%</strong></p><p>Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score:28 (28)</p><p></p><p></p><p>Addendum: Here are some definitions: </p><p></p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/08/glossary.html?[/URL]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 958964, member: 282"] More stats-nerdiness, based on the expected points and WPA, from [URL='https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401525462']GameOnPaper[/URL]. It’s not turnovers, but I’ll start with special teams. Punting was a net positive, but FG and kickoffs hurt. Based on field position, our kickoff units just about cost us a touchdown—between back field position for us and good field position for them. We’d have been much better off fair catching everything. Punting was surprisingly a bright spot. [ATTACH type="full" alt="IMG_0314.jpeg"]14694[/ATTACH] Here are the turnover plays. The Louisville turnover was had a fair shot at minor points for us. Our turnovers were much more painful that Louisville’s one turnover [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Quarter[/B][/TD] [TD][B]Team[/B][/TD] [TD][B]Play[/B][/TD] [TD][B]EPA[/B][/TD] [TD][B]WP%[/B][/TD] [TD][B]WPA%[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Q4 3:51[/TD] [TD][URL='https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/year/2023/team/59'][IMG alt="ESPN team id 59"]https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/59.png[/IMG][/URL][/TD] [TD](1st & 10 at LOU 16) Haynes King sacked by Dezmond Tell for a loss of 10 yards to the LOU 26 Haynes King fumbled, forced by Dezmond Tell, recovered by LOU Kameron Wilson , return for 0 yards - LOU 29, GT 28[/TD] [TD]-5.66[/TD] [TD]70.2%[/TD] [TD]-42.9%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Q1 13:43[/TD] [TD][URL='https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/year/2023/team/59'][IMG alt="ESPN team id 59"]https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/59.png[/IMG][/URL][/TD] [TD](3rd & 3 at GT 25) Haynes King pass intercepted Ramon Puryear return for a loss of 1 yard to the GT 27 - LOU 0, GT 0[/TD] [TD]-4.38[/TD] [TD]22.9%[/TD] [TD]-2.7%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Q2 0:05[/TD] [TD][URL='https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/year/2023/team/97'][IMG alt="ESPN team id 97"]https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/97.png[/IMG][/URL][/TD] [TD](3rd & 5 at LOU 18) Jack Plummer pass intercepted Clayton Powell-Lee return for no gain to the LOU 37 - LOU 13, GT 28[/TD] [TD]-1.85[/TD] [TD]22.2%[/TD] [TD]-1.3%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [B][U][SIZE=5]The fourth quarter sack was huge[/SIZE][/U][/B] Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After):16 -> 74 Started Drive at: GT 0 ExpPts (After - Before = Added):-1.14 - 4.53 = -5.66 Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.53) Score Difference (End): 1 (2.14) Change of Possession: 1 Score: LOU 29, GT 28 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards [B]Win Probability (Before): 70.2% Win Probability (After): 27.3%[/B] Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score:28 (28) Addendum: Here are some definitions: [URL unfurl="true"]http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/08/glossary.html?[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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