Tournament Resume

[FredJacket]

Helpers:
- Getting hot late 9-3 over last 12 games
- Series win over Clemson (in discussions as a national seed)
- Series (road) win over Duke (in hunt for division title)
- CDH nearing end of his career (I do believe this helps... no way to prove it)
- TBD series v UVA
- TBD ACC Tournament performance

Not Helping
- ACC record under .500
- 9th or worse in ACC (8 teams will get in imo... no guarantee 9 will)
- Out of conference schedule

Note: Those first 2 "not helping" can be overcome with a sweep of UVA. IF that happens, we're in... have to be, right?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Helpers:
- Getting hot late 9-3 over last 12 games
- Series win over Clemson (in discussions as a national seed)
- Series (road) win over Duke (in hunt for division title)
- CDH nearing end of his career (I do believe this helps... no way to prove it)
- TBD series v UVA
- TBD ACC Tournament performance

Not Helping
- ACC record under .500
- 9th or worse in ACC (8 teams will get in imo... no guarantee 9 will)
- Out of conference schedule

Note: Those first 2 "not helping" can be overcome with a sweep of UVA. IF that happens, we're in... have to be, right?

Yes. Sweep UVa and we're in 30s rpi. Don't want to calculate odds of first ACC sweep of the year, but we're at home.

 

[bensaysitathome]

Yes. Sweep UVa and we're in 30s rpi. Don't want to calculate odds of first ACC sweep of the year, but we're at home.

This is where the dumb format of the conference tourney may actually help...we realistically have 5 conference games left to boost RPI, and one will be against a top-4 seed.

 

[FredJacket]

This is where the dumb format of the conference tourney may actually help...we realistically have 5 conference games left to boost RPI, and one will be against a top-4 seed.

The ACC would tell you the format cannot be dumb if it helps a team as you describe. That's EXACTLY why they have it in place... genius!

 

[FittedJacket]

Just a thought expanding on the format….As we have seen in the past few years that high top 4 seed may not need to be us to advance and be less likely to use their premium pitching against us. We do after all have the potential to play “Caveman“ baseball.

 

[gtbeak]

Helpers:
- Getting hot late 9-3 over last 12 games
- Series win over Clemson (in discussions as a national seed)
- Series (road) win over Duke (in hunt for division title)
- CDH nearing end of his career (I do believe this helps... no way to prove it)
- TBD series v UVA
- TBD ACC Tournament performance

Not Helping
- ACC record under .500
- 9th or worse in ACC (8 teams will get in imo... no guarantee 9 will)
- Out of conference schedule

Note: Those first 2 "not helping" can be overcome with a sweep of UVA. IF that happens, we're in... have to be, right?

I don't think a sweep of UVa puts us in unconditionally. If we sweep UVa but then go 0-2 at DBAP, that puts us at 15-17 in ACC games, with an RPI probably in the 30's. I don't think that will put us across the line. My guess is that we can lose one more game of the next 6, but not 2. We might could have 2 losses if one is against Mercer tomorrow (I don't think that game counts quite as much for resume purposes), but I think we must either sweep UVa or make the ACC semis. Without one of those, our resume looks very similar to the 2022 NC State resume (actually a little worse), and as FittedJacket pointed out in the other thread, they didn't get in last year.

One other "monkey wrench" in this that may help us is that both NC State and Louisville are ahead of us in RPI. I see no way Louisville makes the NCAA without making the ACC tourney, and doubtful that NC State would without a big final 2 weeks. So, if you subscribe to the idea that certain conferences can expect a certain number of bids (the committee has always said not true), and that the ACCs floor is 8 teams, then one of Notre Dame (46 RPI), Tech, NC State, or Louisville gets that 8th spot. We might should root for BC over Notre Dame this weekend.

 

[bensaysitathome]

The ACC would tell you the format cannot be dumb if it helps a team as you describe. That's EXACTLY why they have it in place... genius!

Haha yes, I see how it has some value. But there's a difference between helping out the members of the conference, and producing a competitive and watchable conference tournament.

As a sports fan, I hate it. As a tech fan (this season) I'll enjoy the benefits.

 

[78pike]

Haha yes, I see how it has some value. But there's a difference between helping out the members of the conference, and producing a competitive and watchable conference tournament.

As a sports fan, I hate it. As a tech fan (this season) I'll enjoy the benefits.

I always thought the reason for the change to this format had more to do with limiting the number of games teams had to play before heading to the NCAA Tournament. Back when it was double elimination teams could blow up their staff with the number of games they had to play especially if the weather got involved. I seem to remember one year we had to play three games in one day or something ridiculous like that. Changing to this format allows the top teams to easily plan out their innings and set up their staffs before moving on to the post season. They know exactly which days they play and for the most part how many games they will need to play. It also greatly increases the likelihood that the top teams will move on into the semis and enhance their seeding chances as they have the tiebreakers in their favor. It makes it much tougher on the bubble teams like us but hey that's why they play the regular season.

 

[FredJacket]

I always thought the reason for the change to this format had more to do with limiting the number of games teams had to play before heading to the NCAA Tournament. Back when it was double elimination teams could blow up their staff with the number of games they had to play especially if the weather got involved. I seem to remember one year we had to play three games in one day or something ridiculous like that. Changing to this format allows the top teams to easily plan out their innings and set up their staffs before moving on to the post season. They know exactly which days they play and for the most part how many games they will need to play. It also greatly increases the likelihood that the top teams will move on into the semis and enhance their seeding chances as they have the tiebreakers in their favor. It makes it much tougher on the bubble teams like us but hey that's why they play the regular season.

You are correct on why the conference moved to pool play and away from a double elimination format.

The conference has tweaked the pool play format over the years by continuing to add more teams to the tournament. They started with 8 teams (2 pools), then went to 10 teams (still 2 pools but included play-in games to whittle to 8 teams). But in 2016, UNC failed to make the 10 team field with an RPI in the teens AND failed to make the NCAA tournament too.

As we all know, if UNC gets a single "bad deal" ... the ACC reacts and reacts swiftly. So... as of 2017, they have gone to the current format with 12 teams and 4 pools. The detractors of this format have a legitimate complaint regarding the fan experience because there is a certainty that 4 games in the tournament (1 per pool) will be played while knowing ahead of time they have no bearing on the outcome of the tournament (i.e. who wins that particular pool). The ACC doesn't care as much about that as getting each of the 12 teams 2 additional conference games to improve resumes while balancing the fact you do want teams to know/plan for a finite number of games.

Ga Tech is a team who may benefit from this next week. We shall see.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I don't think a sweep of UVa puts us in unconditionally. If we sweep UVa but then go 0-2 at DBAP, that puts us at 15-17 in ACC games, with an RPI probably in the 30's. I don't think that will put us across the line. My guess is that we can lose one more game of the next 6, but not 2. We might could have 2 losses if one is against Mercer tomorrow (I don't think that game counts quite as much for resume purposes), but I think we must either sweep UVa or make the ACC semis. Without one of those, our resume looks very similar to the 2022 NC State resume (actually a little worse), and as FittedJacket pointed out in the other thread, they didn't get in last year.

One other "monkey wrench" in this that may help us is that both NC State and Louisville are ahead of us in RPI. I see no way Louisville makes the NCAA without making the ACC tourney, and doubtful that NC State would without a big final 2 weeks. So, if you subscribe to the idea that certain conferences can expect a certain number of bids (the committee has always said not true), and that the ACCs floor is 8 teams, then one of Notre Dame (46 RPI), Tech, NC State, or Louisville gets that 8th spot. We might should root for BC over Notre Dame this weekend.

Some things are easy. Root for ND to lose and us to win.

I still think after the ACC tourney we need to be within 1 game of 500 and we are in the NCAAs. But we have to rely on more than 4 pitchers.

 

[Buzzbomb]

 

[MWBATL]

Please don’t post the team ERA’s….