Today in Analytics...

slugboy

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Bill Connelly put together his season forecast at https://www.espn.com/college-footba...llege-football-sp+-preseason-projections-2022. It's behind a paywall, which means unlike ESPN's daytime shows like "Around the Horn", it's valuable content.

You can see the summary in this article for the Miami site: https://www.stateoftheu.com/2022/2/...-sp-projections-for-22-acc-coastal-nerds-espn. It's also mentioned by the guys over in From The Rumble Seat.

Some tidbits:
  • We're 92 out of about 130 teams
  • We're projected 108 on defense
  • Yes, that means our offense is carrying the team
  • We're "better than Duke", but that's it in the ACC
  • Forecast for two wins.
Atlantic should be really good. The Coastal—not so much:

 
Last edited:

CEB

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Hmmmm... I think this sets the bar a little low for us but I also understand why there is not much confidence in setting it higher. Nothing like having to overachieve by 300% to be considered mildly successful.
I think we’ll out pace this projection... but maybe not by much. That said, if we’re an improving team, we’ll have to knock off some perceived “better” teams to prove it. Positive thinking; it looks like we’ve got 10 opportunities for that!
 

g0lftime

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The thing to remember about such stats for the 2014 team is that we held the ball for so long. The differntial was low because the other side never got the ball long enough to get ahead.

Good idea for future Tech teams, btw. NB: that Wake in 2021 is right there with Tech. Somehow this figures.
That was one of the reasons PJ came up with that offense in the first place. The other team can't score without the ball. With equal talent it was a dominating offense most of the time. Cutcliffe had figured it out though.
 

LongforDodd

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2,316
That was one of the reasons PJ came up with that offense in the first place. The other team can't score without the ball. With equal talent it was a dominating offense most of the time. Cutcliffe had figured it out though.
With his better personnel, Bud Foster didn't do too bad.
 

takethepoints

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That was one of the reasons PJ came up with that offense in the first place. The other team can't score without the ball. With equal talent it was a dominating offense most of the time. Cutcliffe had figured it out though.
This is the equivalent of all that business in Moneyball about getting on base. You can't score runs unless you get players on base and the more you get the better your chances are. In football, the equation is different: only the team with the ball can score. If your team holds onto the ball, two things happen a) the other side can't score (or, at least, not without a great D play) and b) your chances of scoring increase the longer you hold the ball. This is something I wish our present staff paid a lot more attention to. I used to feel for Patenaude; his teams had always been run heavy until he came to Tech. And they won.

Also, I think our trouble with Puke came more from sheer bad luck then anything else. The 2016 game is the best example. Still, there's no question that Cutliiffe always wanted to beat Tech real bad. And vice versa, of course.
 

takethepoints

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Messages
5,134
That was one of the reasons PJ came up with that offense in the first place. The other team can't score without the ball. With equal talent it was a dominating offense most of the time. Cutcliffe had figured it out though.
This is the equivalent of all that business in Moneyball about getting on base. You can't score runs unless you get players on base and the more you get the better your chances are. In football, the equation is different: only the team with the ball can score. If your team holds onto the ball, two things happen a) the other side can't score (or, at least, not without a great D play) and b) your chances of scoring increase the longer you hold the ball. This is something I wish our present staff paid a lot more attention to. I used to feel for Patenaude; his teams had always been run heavy until he came to Tech. And they won.

Also, I think our trouble with Puke came more from sheer bad luck then anything else. The 2018 game is the best example. Still, there's no question that Cutliiffe always wanted to beat Tech real bad. And vice versa, of course.
 

takethepoints

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I'm not sure how that happened. I was editing the second post and, all of a sudden, both posts went up. Too late to get rid of the first, however. Sorry for the bandwidth.
 

JacketFan137

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1,072
This is the equivalent of all that business in Moneyball about getting on base. You can't score runs unless you get players on base and the more you get the better your chances are. In football, the equation is different: only the team with the ball can score. If your team holds onto the ball, two things happen a) the other side can't score (or, at least, not without a great D play) and b) your chances of scoring increase the longer you hold the ball. This is something I wish our present staff paid a lot more attention to. I used to feel for Patenaude; his teams had always been run heavy until he came to Tech. And they won.

Also, I think our trouble with Puke came more from sheer bad luck then anything else. The 2018 game is the best example. Still, there's no question that Cutliiffe always wanted to beat Tech real bad. And vice versa, of course.
cutcliffe just had big athletic defenders and he also started bullying us on offense when we had some mediocre to average d lines. he would get up and stay up and we typically didn’t have an answer when we were losing in games.
 

CEB

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
332
I'm not sure how that happened. I was editing the second post and, all of a sudden, both posts went up. Too late to get rid of the first, however. Sorry for the bandwidth.
Applying that tactic toward message board domination, eh? As long as you’re posting others can’t post and the more you post the more likely your posts are read.
This stuff has endless application!!:LOL:
 

alagold

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Bill Connelly put together his season forecast at https://www.espn.com/college-footba...llege-football-sp+-preseason-projections-2022. It's behind a paywall, which means unlike ESPN's daytime shows like "Around the Horn", it's valuable content.

You can see the summary in this article for the Miami site: https://www.stateoftheu.com/2022/2/...-sp-projections-for-22-acc-coastal-nerds-espn. It's also mentioned by the guys over in From The Rumble Seat.

Some tidbits:
  • We're 92 out of about 130 teams
  • We're projected 108 on defense
  • Yes, that means our offense is carrying the team
  • We're "better than Duke", but that's it in the ACC
  • Forecast for two wins.
Atlantic should be really good. The Coastal—not so much:


It looks to be a very realistic assessment of our team.
 

jacketup

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When will people learn that the media doesn't know crap about college football? Who was picked last in their division in the MAC? NIU. Who won the MAC championship? NIU

I saw a piece recently with two guys forecasting the GT Clemson game. Both said to lay the 21.5 spread. I'll bet that neither one could tell you within 10 points the score of last year's game, or where it was played.

The media knows a little bit about the perennial powers. Otherwise, they are like weather forecasters. All they really know is what has already happened. College football changes from year to year like the weather. The media forecast is like reading yesterday's weather.
 

slugboy

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We had the Fremeau reply in another thread, but it's really thorough

I copied some of the charts (this is public), but check out the site--I think you'll be glad you did

1650376475960.png
 

JacketFan137

Helluva Engineer
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1,072
When will people learn that the media doesn't know crap about college football? Who was picked last in their division in the MAC? NIU. Who won the MAC championship? NIU

I saw a piece recently with two guys forecasting the GT Clemson game. Both said to lay the 21.5 spread. I'll bet that neither one could tell you within 10 points the score of last year's game, or where it was played.

The media knows a little bit about the perennial powers. Otherwise, they are like weather forecasters. All they really know is what has already happened. College football changes from year to year like the weather. The media forecast is like reading yesterday's weather.
also at the end of the day these are 18-22 year old kids. the range of outcomes is way wider week to week than what you see with professional athletes in MLB, NBA, NFL etc. analytics can paint a picture of the season but week to week a lot can happen in CFB.
 

BuzzDraft

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
133
...
The media knows a little bit about the perennial powers. Otherwise, they are like weather forecasters. All they really know is what has already happened. College football changes from year to year like the weather. The media forecast is like reading yesterday's weather.
But our weather hasn't changed going on four years... overcast, with a cold drizzle.
 
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