Tiers of college football and where we stand

[slugboy]

We just had a conversation in another thread about scheduling patsies, and we’ve had conversations about recruiting and quality of conferences. We’ve also had conversations about hiring a new coach and wanting one with P5 experience.

P5 is one grouping and it’s flattering to the ACC and P12. Right now, the SEC has three really good teams and they’re almost all above average as a conference. The Pac12 and the ACC look kind of like the same conference—there’s no one playoff-worthy right now. The B12 is all above average and a tough out from top to bottom.

Nate Manzo (“cfbNate”) color coded 5 tiers. You could say it’s 7 with UGA and Ohio State in a top tier, then with Alabama, Michigan, Tennessee, and Texas in tier #2 (and I’d split it that way after seeing the difference in the UGA-Tenn game vs the Bama-Tenn game).

Then, you have good teams—LSU, FSU, Utah, USC, Ole Miss, Miss State, TCU, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Louisville.

He grouped the just above average and the just below average in purple, but I’d split above and below average. You have teams like UNC and Wake being above average and on the border of good. It’s the same with Texas A&M and Tulane. At this level, you’re seeing teams with less resources than us like Memphis and Tulane and UAB doing better than us. About half of the AAC is there, with Coastal Carolina, Tulane, Cincinnati, JMU, SMU, ECU, and Troy.

Our peer group is Vandy, Nebraska, Stanford, Arizona, Army, Navy, UVA, Miami, Fresno, etc. Miami has to REALLY believe they don’t belong here after what they spent last year.

Just below us, you’ve got the UCONNs, Colorados, Temple, some conference USA, MWC, and MAC teams.

At the very bottom, you’ve got some horrible teams—UMass, NM State, FIU, Akron, etc.

When it’s time to evaluate a coach, a lot of the G5 coaches we’re looking at have their teams playing at a higher level than us.

For next year, I could see us moving to above average or even into the bottom of the “blue” range with a good coach (including possibly Key).

 

[jacketup]

Interesting, but:

1. Does not take into account schedule difficulty.
2. Is solely based on outcomes in 2022 and not a historical ranking.
3. Does not take into account critical injuries in particular games.

Our comparative ranking in the ACC would be very different with WF's or Duke's schedule. I don't give this much credibility if trying to gauge relative strength/value of programs. Very superficial, like something a casual fan would do.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Where would Tennessee have been last year? Year before? Look how far and how fast they moved with a good coach.

 

[presjacket]

This is merely a snapshot of this point in this season. By no means does it define teams as a program.

 

[slugboy]

Interesting, but:

1. Does not take into account schedule difficulty.
2. Is solely based on outcomes in 2022 and not a historical ranking.
3. Does not take into account critical injuries in particular games.

Our comparative ranking in the ACC would be very different with WF's or Duke's schedule. I don't give this much credibility if trying to gauge relative strength/value of programs. Very superficial, like something a casual fan would do.

1. Every one of the systems used takes into account schedule difficulty. Every one.
2. Would you want a 5 year ranking? That might be worse—and it probably would be.
3. Why would you? That’s part of what every team has to deal with. Who gets to overturn a loss because of injury?

Our comparative ranking in the ACC would be exactly the same with WF’s or Duke’s schedule. We might have another win (or not, Kansas is very good), but that ranking would be the same.

Where would Tennessee have been last year? Year before? Look how far and how fast they moved with a good coach.

My guess is that Tennessee moved from where Purdue or Pitt or possibly NCST is now up about two whole bands. They moved a huge amount. It’s amazing, really. We talk about our program as a sleeping giant, but programs like Tennessee and Auburn and Florida waste so much potential.

If we moved the same amount, we’d be where Louisville is right now, and I think that’s possible.