This week in 'there is a chance'

cyptomcat

cyptomcat

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
866
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/...off-update-7-teams-competing-for-4-positions/

silver-feature-collegefootball-table3-v4.png
 
Jerry the Jacket

Jerry the Jacket

Helluva Engineer
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1,945
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Chapin, SC
It's very simple for the committee now. You have 4 championship games and the winners of those should have preference in the final selection process. In effect this is a playoff for the playoffs. Georgia Tech vs. FSU winner should be strongly considered, Oregon vs. Arizona winner should be strongly considered, Alabama vs. Missouri winner should be strongly considered, Ohio State vs. Wisconsin winner should be strongly considered. The Big 12 will have to choose between TCU and Baylor unless Kansas State beats Baylor then TCU really is the last man standing for the Big 12. So our best shot is to have the favorites all lose and force the committee to choose 4 from 5. Right now it looks like we might have enough on our resume to beat out either Missouri or Wisconsin. The final five in my scenario would be: TCU, Arizona, Missouri, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin. I think TCU and Arizona would be locks that brings us down to Missouri, GT and Wisconsin. I think the committee is hoping for Alabama, Oregon, FSU and TCU with Ohio State the odd man out.

Go Jackets!
 
AE 87

AE 87

Helluva Engineer
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13,026
We would've had a chance if Mizzou had lost and georgie beat bama in the SEC CG. The reality is that the anti-ACC bias is so strong that people don't even want to put the undefeated FSU into the playoffs, let alone an upstart that beats them. It will be seen as FSU finally lost like we knew they would, rather than GT beat the #1 or #3 team. I think that we're playing some of the best football in the country right now, but it's tough to overcome preconceptions.

We beat FSU and win the Orange Bowl, we'll be end of the year and then preseason top 10. From there, we just need to take care of business. Go Jackets!
 
GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
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Williamsburg Virginia
AE 87 said:
We would've had a chance if Mizzou had lost and georgie beat bama in the SEC CG. The reality is that the anti-ACC bias is so strong that people don't even want to put the undefeated FSU into the playoffs, let alone an upstart that beats them. It will be seen as FSU finally lost like we knew they would, rather than GT beat the #1 or #3 team. I think that we're playing some of the best football in the country right now, but it's tough to overcome preconceptions.

We beat FSU and win the Orange Bowl, we'll be end of the year and then preseason top 10. From there, we just need to take care of business. Go Jackets!
Click to expand...

You are probably right that our chances would have gone up to 5% or whatever if UGAg won the SEC. But it really is FSU or no one from the ACC unless there are bunches of upsets.

But I'll trade that chance every time to see the leg humpers not even win the weak SEC East. Hopefully in the next couple years, we make enough plays to have a realistic chance. And win another NC while UGAg wins another Fulmer Cup.
 

eetech

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
198
I don't see how they could say anything about playoff teams when the committee in all likelihood itself doesn't have a clue about the factors they are gonna select teams on.

I think it's obvious the committee has a short list of teams they want in, and they will change their stated factors to ensure those teams get in.
 

iggymcfly

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
73
This 538 model is based completely off historical coaches' polls. I'd agree that we have almost no chance to reach #4 in the coaches' poll. However, the committee has specifically been tasked with including conference championships in their criteria, and has also shown a much heavier willingness than the historical polls to give credit for good wins, and jump teams who didn't lose on the basis of a good win by a team below them. Due to all that, I think our real chances are much higher. Probably more like 3.3% to make the playoff, and as high as 15% if we just take care of business and beat Florida State convincingly.
 
redmule

redmule

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
664
I think the committee might be so grateful to us for beating FSU that they might slip us in at #4 given the chance. The entire country hates the semiholes.
 

johncu

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
209
I think our only chance is if Wisconsin beats OSU unimpressively, giving the impression that they only won because OSU lost their QB. I also think K-State has to beat Baylor, which looks a little more likely now that Baylor's QB got concussed.

Do we get in over a 2-loss Wisconsin? Right now we're only 1 spot behind in the AP and coaches' polls, so maybe a convincing win over FSU would do it.

I do not think we would jump a 1-loss TCU if Baylor wins the B12, but I do think we jump Miss St and Mich State.
 

RLR

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
355
If i was calling the shots in GT's athletic department, I'm doing everything I can this week to create my own narrative. I agree with most people here, the rankings will be influenced by corporate profit interest (tangent - read manufacturing consent. will give you a good framework for understanding the media industry's incentives). But on the bright side, there's an inherent fairness to greed. "Greed is good." If money is all these cats really care about, let's feed them a story with mass appeal & that furthers the interest of the ESPN (/NCAA's) bottom line.

Why ESPN Might Benefit From 0 SEC Teams in the playoffs this year
It's ludacris to think that average american would care more about TCU than GT. It's like saying the average American would watch the Cardinals in the superbowl, but not the Vikings. People will watch NCAA playoffs just like they will watch the SuperBowl regardless of the teams, if it's marketed successfully (albeit not nearly as many people). Thus, give your average american, who doesn't care about college football, a "feel good" story / underdog team to cheer for. it's simple & a time tested strategy. ESPN's playoff tv contract provides incentive to maximize the # of viewers, not promote the SEC. ESPN could possibly even increase the # of general viewers by not having an SEC team in the playoffs this year. ESPN's SEC tv contract would provide incentive to expand the playoffs to 8, especially if 0 get in this year. . . that would make every SEC game "important" --> more viewers per game --> more revenue.

Possible Selling Points for GT's storyline
  • Cinderella Story - predicted to finish last in the preseason. Win the ACC Costal.
    • America's favorite plot
    • Zack Laskey is a poster boy for the NCAA. What more could you want from a student athlete?
    • Shaq Mason would be another great story. No name recruit to All ACC & proud father
    • Same with Deandre Smelter & PJ Davis. . . our star players are also outstanding people. Put them in front of the camera
  • Other teams lost star players because they received improper benefits. GT lost star players because of our STEM entry requirements
    • From a cynical standpoint, don't you think the useless people running the NCAA would rather keep profits, rather than redistribute the profits to the 85 players on 100+ teams?
    • But obviously you can't say that. So refocus the issue. Talk about the world class education the GT players are receiving. How could the current model be broken if a team like GT is succeeding in the classroom & on the field?
    • Let's highlight the miracle recovery of Jaylend Ratliff & our school's commitment to him (Okay, I feel bad about this. What he went through and the support from our fan base was genuine. I'm not willing to sell out here).
  • History / Legacy
    • It's the essence of college football. Remind people who the Heisman trophy is named after
    • Bobby Dodd Stadium (oldest stadium/field...which is it?)
    • Cumberland Ball (222-0) auction, purchased by your average GT millionaire alumni
    • World's best fight song
    • Atlanta - home of the college football HOF. NCAA Sports Hub.
  • GT's status as a world class research university
    • This is the age of the nerd. look at silicon valley. look at the WSJ (stories on Harvard & MIT football the past few weeks). Let's capitalize on the great research & contribution our school makes & our society's obsession with obtaining wealth.
    • Get the IE department to come up with some calculation to show how preseason rankings are biased & distort final rankings. Reach the conclusion that games late in the season should be weighted more to make the rating more fair.
    • Then, do whatever you have to do make that story/research go viral. I'm sure some CS whiz sitting in his dorm has a legion of twitter bots armed & ready for a task like this. Employ famous GT alum to spread the message. How many twitter followers does Megatron have?
    • ^^the point is, feed these national "experts" in the media an intelligent sounding, simple, slogan that supports GT's inclusion
  • Blow out FSU. 49-10.
To Hell with Georgia.
 

iggymcfly

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
73
Wisconsin is not an issue for us at all. I fully expect the CFP committee to make a big deal out of our road win @ Georgia and move us ahead of the Badgers on the basis of that game. If they don't give it to us on that game, then surely we'll get more credit for being a 12-0 Florida State team than Wisconsin gets for beating Ohio State on their 3rd-string QB and move up next week. Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Mississippi State are all teams that are ahead of us in the AP poll that would almost certainly be behind us in the final committee rankings if we beat Florida State as only Wisconsin can be a conference champion and I've just covered them. And Kansas State is a team that would only stay ahead of us if they win the Big XII title which will only happen if TCU loses to Iowa State which would open a spot for us anyway. So right now, here's how it sits with the playoff spots:

1. Alabama (don't think we can pass them even if they lose to Missouri unless it's a blowout and that's incredibly unlikely)
2. Oregon/Arizona winner
3. Big XII champion
4. open

For that 4th spot, we're competing with a possible 2nd team out of the Big XII, a possible one-loss Ohio State, and a possible 1-loss Florida State. That's it. So to get in, we need to:

1. Beat Florida State convincingly enough that we pass them in the polls. There's a magic number we need to win by, but it could be anywhere from 3 to 17. Really hard to say where the line is.
2. Have Wisconsin beat Ohio State (quite likely, Wisconsin's currently a 4-point favorite)
3. Have Kansas State beat Baylor or Iowa State beat TCU (Iowa State over TCU would be a miracle, but K-State over Baylor is pretty reasonable, probably about a 30% chance).
 
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