The SOS Joke in the ACC

[GTNavyNuke]

Here's the Strength of Schedule for all ACC teams this year, first the whole season (SOS) and second strength year to date (YTD) http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cf2014.htm

Team SOS YTD
Miami (Florida) 0.728 0.674
North Carolina 0.721 0.69
Syracuse 0.717 0.639
Virginia 0.695 0.556
Florida State 0.658 0.595
Georgia Tech 0.657 0.516
Louisville 0.649 0.521
Wake Forest 0.642 0.527
Boston College 0.639 0.546
Clemson 0.605 0.729
Virginia Tech 0.601 0.589
North Carolina State 0.581 0.633
Pittsburgh 0.576 0.478
Duke 0.394 0.314

These ratings are the odds of the teams played beating the average CFB team on a neutral field. So for GT, for all the teams we have played this year, the average strenght is 51.6%. And it's going to get harder, by the end of the year the average will be up to 65.7% (Clemson and UGAg duh)

The joke of course is how pitiful the Duke schedule strength is. It makes the argument that if the ACC is going to schedule more equal strength schedules, then we should just have the ACCCG be the two best teams by record (W/L), followed by head to head (if applicable) and the final tie breaker be national rating by any specified source.

Also note why FSU has to win out to make the Championship series ... their SOS is about the same as ours.

Next year our SOS is going to be up there at the top! (ND, Clemson, UGAg, FSU)

 

[presjacket]

Yeah, it is totally not fair that we have to play Clemson every year and Duke gets to play Wake. I'm not really concerned with out of conference strength of schedule. Duke needed to schedule weak teams in the past to make a bowl. But now that we are competing with them for the division title, it makes me hate them more. I just want to improve our chances of making the ACC championship game.

I would like to see the ACC do away with the permanent crossover opponent and rotate through the other division.

 

[AE 87]

@GTNavyNuke Do you know if those SoS numbers have become independent of the preseason rankings?

 

[gtcole]

Yeah, it is totally not fair that we have to play Clemson every year and Duke gets to play Wake. I'm not really concerned with out of conference strength of schedule. Duke needed to schedule weak teams in the past to make a bowl. But now that we are competing with them for the division title, it makes me hate them more. I just want to improve our chances of making the ACC championship game.

I would like to see the ACC do away with the permanent crossover opponent and rotate through the other division.

Completely disagree. It would suck not playing Clemson every year. Who cares if our schedule is more difficult, the regular season games are more fun.

 

[SecretAgentBuzz]

Proves what we all know. Duke has taken care of business...but they have had an easy road.

 

[presjacket]

Completely disagree. It would suck not playing Clemson every year. Who cares if our schedule is more difficult, the regular season games are more fun.

Are you saying that a regular season game against Clemson is more fun than an ACC Championship game? We will have to agree to disagree on that one.

Although, I would be in favor of divisional realignment that places us in the same division as Clemson, as long as we have an fair and equal opportunity to the championship game as the other teams in our division.

 

[Yoda]

If we can't beat Clemson in the regular season then why worry about the ACCCG. Kind if like if you can't/don't win your conference, you shouldn't be in the discussion of the national title game/playoffs.

 

[SidewalkJacket]

I would love to play Clem every year. I've been to that game numerous times and I respect them and their fans for the most part. Something should be done to account for crossover game disparities, however. I know the ACC was trying to permanently match FSU and UM in the title game, but it hasn't happened yet, and now the divisions don't make sense.

 

[jchens_GT]

Here's the Strength of Schedule for all ACC teams this year, first the whole season (SOS) and second strength year to date (YTD) http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cf2014.htm

Team SOS YTD
Miami (Florida) 0.728 0.674
North Carolina 0.721 0.69
Syracuse 0.717 0.639
Virginia 0.695 0.556
Florida State 0.658 0.595
Georgia Tech 0.657 0.516
Louisville 0.649 0.521
Wake Forest 0.642 0.527
Boston College 0.639 0.546
Clemson 0.605 0.729
Virginia Tech 0.601 0.589
North Carolina State 0.581 0.633
Pittsburgh 0.576 0.478
Duke 0.394 0.314

These ratings are the odds of the teams played beating the average CFB team on a neutral field. So for GT, for all the teams we have played this year, the average strenght is 51.6%. And it's going to get harder, by the end of the year the average will be up to 65.7% (Clemson and UGAg duh)

The joke of course is how pitiful the Duke schedule strength is. It makes the argument that if the ACC is going to schedule more equal strength schedules, then we should just have the ACCCG be the two best teams by record (W/L), followed by head to head (if applicable) and the final tie breaker be national rating by any specified source.

Also note why FSU has to win out to make the Championship series ... their SOS is about the same as ours.

Next year our SOS is going to be up there at the top! (ND, Clemson, UGAg, FSU)

That Duke SOS is pitiful. Wow.

 

[reubenjet]

We are part of why "Dookie's" SOS is so weak!

 

[WreckinGT]

We are part of why "Dookie's" SOS is so weak!

We are one of the best teams on Duke's schedule every year.

 

[presjacket]

If we can't beat Clemson in the regular season then why worry about the ACCCG. Kind if like if you can't/don't win your conference, you shouldn't be in the discussion of the national title game/playoffs.

Because it is one more game that I get to root for Georgia Tech! More football is always better than less football. Always.

My point isn't that we are going to lose to Clemson. I'm just saying that Duke has a traditionally easier path to the ACC Championship game than we do. Who knows. It could change next year. Somebody might pull a Boone T. Pickens on Wake and invest enough that they can hire Nick Saban and his team away. Or DRad might pull a DRad and put Clemson on probation.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Because it is one more game that I get to root for Georgia Tech! More football is always better than less football. Always.

My point isn't that we are going to lose to Clemson. I'm just saying that Duke has a traditionally easier path to the ACC Championship game than we do. Who knows. It could change next year. Somebody might pull a Boone T. Pickens on Wake and invest enough that they can hire Nick Saban and his team away. Or DRad might pull a DRad and put Clemson on probation.

"Or DRad might pull a DRad and put Clemson on probation."
That wouldn't surprise me at all. Clemson fans are already wary of him.

 

[AE 87]

footballoutsiders has a SOS ranking as well for its FEI calculation (YTD, iiuc):

 

[DCSS]

We needed to beat Duke.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

If we can't beat Clemson in the regular season then why worry about the ACCCG. Kind if like if you can't/don't win your conference, you shouldn't be in the discussion of the national title game/playoffs.

I don't think your reply really speaks to the point at issue @presjacket is making. I understand the kind of machismo Ric Flair point that Tech fans make of having "to beat the best to be the best." I do get the appeal of a schedule where you can watch your team play FSU/CLEMSON/UGA/ND/Auburn, etc, every year so that every single game is a huge exciting sell out game.

But I think the point is that the college football game is not designed at all to cater to this sort of amateur fast pitch softball league or intramural approach of wanting to "take on all comers, anytime, anywhere" anymore.

It was not always like this. When a team basically played about 10 regular season games and then might get one of a select few bowl games then regular season games like Tech vs. Alabama or Michigan vs. Ohio State held so much more cache and prestige. Those games were the championship games. In that format a Bobby Dodd can refuse to ever schedule a team from Mississippi or can demand that Clemson take the train down to play only in Atlanta. He was making the correct decisions for the format of the game and had the success to demonstrate his acumen.

But now the game is designed around actual championship games, around those post-regular season conference and now 4 team playoff games. Conference leadership has to recognize this fact even more than the ADs of particular schools and work to create the fairest possible playing field among its conference members to fit in with the nature of the college game.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

@GTNavyNuke Do you know if those SoS numbers have become independent of the preseason rankings?

I think they are essentially independent of last year by now because the SOS is driven off the Power Ranking, where the game is played and I think the length of times between games. By this time of the season, the Power Ranking should be all this year in the algorithm......