I think more skill is required to win games in ice hockey than what Mr. Maubussin's graphic and calculations show, though the other sports are probably about right. This past week during an overtime period in the Kelly Cup Finals (ECHL), a Stingrays player fired a slap shot that hit the upper crosss bar of the net and deflected off the glass; a couple centimeters lower, and that shot would have gone in, giving the Stingrays the win. As it turned out, Colorado got a goal about a minute later and won the game. Close shots like that which could go either way appear to be almost random... Yet we see that in basketball, too, where a shot dances and circles its way around the rim, seemingly defying centrifugal force ultimately to fall in for a basket. Other times a shot that looks like it's going to sink in ends up riquocheting off the glass into the hands of an opposing player for a rebound. These things are very random, too.
And it also depends on the league. Even though the NHL was and is the world's premier hockey league, international hockey leagues historically demanded more skill from a player than the NHL. The ice was bigger; wider by about fifteen feet and also a little longer, with more room behind the net. Given the same number of players on the ice as in North America, players had to cover more territory and work more as a team. Naturally, there was more emphasis on skating skills, stickhandling and passing and less emphasis on raw physicality. Certain teams like the Soviets dominated the game for decades through pure skill, often beating top NHL all-star talent. Swedish and Czech teams were regularly and predictably good for years. Jim Craig, goalie for the US national team that won the gold in 1980, credited his failure in the NHL to the randomness of the North American game. In international play, there was a certain method and strategy to how different teams attacked the goal, and over time he was able to memorize many of his opponents' moves. When he started playing for the Flames in Atlanta, he said shots seemed to come randomly from everywhere, with no particular rhyme or reason.
Ever since European/Russian players started coming into the NHL in large numbers, the NHL started resembling the international game a lot more, a hybrid type of game with both finesse and hard hitting. It quickly became more of a speed and skill game, with the quality of North American players improving accordingly.
It's true that hockey players come off the ice in shifts and don't stay out there as long as their basketball counterparts. But individual skaters can have a huge impact on the success of a team. Pittsburgh was near the bottom of the league when Mario Lemieux got drafted. After that, Pittsburgh were instant contenders. Guy Lafleur, Bobby Hull, Wayne Gretsky, Pavel Bure and Alex Ovechkin, among many others, have all had a huge impact on the success of their respective teams, though often supported by a talented player on the same line (think Jari Kurri and Mark Messier in support of Gretzky). The goaltender, the one player who usually stays out on the ice the whole game, can have a pivotal impact on the success of a team. He plays a more important role than a goaltender in soccer, yet has nearly the impact on a team's success as a QB in football. Goalies like Grant Fuhr, Ron Hextall, Ken Dryden and Vladislav Tretjak were legendary in their time and were the backbones of some great teams. And where would the US team in 1980 have been without Jim Craig?
A bit long-winded, but the point being that success in today's ice hockey is a lot more skill-dependent than random.
