The Merits of the Bunt

[FredJacket]

Decided I'd like a thread dedicated to this. Hope that is ok with some of you who've chimed in on our approach to sacrificing runners.

These tables (thank you @Lagrangejacket) provide very good data. I do sort of believe CDH (and other coaches too) seems to overuse the SAC bunt...ultimately costing us runs in the long term. I won't rehash all the back and forth on other threads. The consensus seems to be (particularly this year)... Tech should NEVER use the top of the order (guys with high OBPs) to sac bunt runners over. Some do concede the only exception would be the late inning situation (i.e. 9th inning) where 1 run is needed to tie or get the lead.

The data in the tables does include all plays in all games (it says roughly 93% of D1 games). If we are using the data to do analysis on the value of a sac bunt... I'd like to see it with the data for lopsided games removed. Set some score differential limit at like 2 or 3 runs. Nearly all the time in lopsided games... there will be no decision to sac bunt. So.. you would make a more apples to apples comparison. I'd bet this would deflate the tables some too.. making it appear more reasonable to attempt sac bunts in tight games at any point during the game. However, that data would likely still make the same case, just less dramatically... you should not bunt early and often.

Anecdotally, as I fan who considers "small ball" exciting... I see value in a well-executed sac bunt or squeeze play to fire up a team or crowd and/or establish some momentum early by scoring first. I cannot say those things necessarily translate to a "good coaching decision" if you too often fail to execute (opposite effect) or you need 14 runs to win a baseball game.

Anyway... I value the input of others on this and thoroughly enjoy the discussion. Baseball is a beautiful thing... always some small nuance to learn; and if you're alert to it, you'll nearly always see something you've never seen before at a baseball game.

 

[MWBATL]

As many have already pointed out (and I agree with them), sacrifice bunts and small ball works just great...IFF you have a good pitching staff that you can count on to limit the other team's scoring.

So, in our case....

 

[Lagrangejacket]

Good post. I’ll just add a few points in no particular order:

1. Sacrifice bunting becomes a worse decision the better your offense is. Obviously, you would never sacrifice if your team bats 1.000. The expected run table you linked has a run expectancy for the game of 5.67 (9 innings * 0.63 runs). GT is currently averaging 6.5 runs/game, so run expectancies for GT are generally higher than that chart suggests.

2. All the season stats out there assume successful sac bunts. There is always the possibility that a sac ends up as a bunt single, the batter gets out without moving the runner over, double play, etc. Attempting a bunt can also make a batter acquire two strikes and be forced to swing away with an adverse count - that doesn’t show up in the box score. I don’t have any stats on how good we are at laying down bunts, but I feel like it must be pretty bad.

3. Bunting early in the game drives me doubly crazy. If it’s the top of the 1st, you have no idea how many runs you’ll need to win the game. You can make a guess based on the pitchers, weather, teams’ ERA and batting average, etc. But the variance is large. As an example, we sacrificed in the 2nd inning on Friday, and got a run out of the inning. We lost 10-1. When it’s early in the game, go with the option that gives you the most expected runs.

4. The corollary of #3: bunting may become more viable late in the game. Later in the game, you have a much better idea of how many runs you’ll need to win the game. For example, if the game is tied in the bottom of the 9th, you need exactly one run. Play to maximize the probability of scoring one run - this would allow bunting a runner from 2nd to 3rd with 0 outs, for example.

5. Sacrifice bunting in MLB is way down. There were 0.21 sacrifices per game in 2017, the lowest in baseball history. Note that scoring is much higher (~30%) in D1 baseball than MLB. Also note that pitchers bat in half of MLB.

 

[Squints]

As many have already pointed out (and I agree with them), sacrifice bunts and small ball works just great...IFF you have a good pitching staff that you can count on to limit the other team's scoring.

So, in our case....

I'd even go a step farther. If you want to base your offensive philosophy around small ball you need a consistently GREAT staff because you're just flat out not going to score a lot of runs.

 

[FredJacket]

Isn't the argument most are making here... the offensive philosophy should be to simply eliminate the sac bunt from the repertoire REGARDLESS of the how strong the pitching staff is. In other words...if you want to score runs with an average to above average offense in college baseball, there is no scenario where you choose to give up outs by bunting...you swing the bat. [with noted exception... the very specific late game need to get one run to win]

Good post. I’ll just add a few points in no particular order:
2. All the season stats out there assume successful sac bunts. There is always the possibility that a sac ends up as a bunt single, the batter gets out without moving the runner over, double play, etc. Attempting a bunt can also make a batter acquire two strikes and be forced to swing away with an adverse count - that doesn’t show up in the box score. I don’t have any stats on how good we are at laying down bunts, but I feel like it must be pretty bad.

I understand this paragraph as written regarding assuming successful sac bunts in order to compare statistical outcomes if you do or do not choose to give up that out and move the runner over. But... that made me think more about the data...so, help me understand something about the tables we're referencing. Correct me if I'm wrong... the data would INCLUDE all successful and unsuccessful sac bunts. Seems that sort of muddies the information if used to decide on bunting or not. Its like you've assumed all of those runs in those tables came from innings with NO sac bunts... and that is not true. Or am I missing something?

 

[RoosterJacket]

Tonight---Peurifoy leads off with a double in the 5th or 6th inning. Bailey bunts him to 3B. Craport walks. Bart strikes out (although apparently his "foul ball" down 3B may have been fair). Then Kel gets out. No runs scored and we took the bat out of one of our best hitters.

 

[Squints]

I'd say that sums it up.

 

[FredJacket]

I'd say that sums it up.

Well crap... now I'm going to need to see the Expected Run Tables for softball. Until then... we'll just say "maybe" to this photo.

 

[FredJacket]

Below is Tech's 8th inning in our win Saturday at Va Tech. The good news is.... we won the game & now I can present a small (just one) case study on the exact topic of this thread. ...and since we won, I can do so with joy in my heart and a smile, rather than angst and dread and the firm knowledge we're helpless. ...it is a very fine line.

In case you missed it, here was the situation entering the 8th inning with our 6th, 7th, & 8th hitters due up. Ga Tech held a 6-3 lead with 2 innings remaining. We were getting into that territory discussed earlier regarding bunting decisions where we have an idea how many runs we need to WIN the game. Based on the game prior with Va Tech, it IS indeed hard to really know.

[Disclaimer: I did not see this action; but was listening to Wiley and Nick on WREK live]
Needless to say, as the top of the 8th progressed I thought of @Lagrangejacket and others who've weighed in here. I don't mean to pick on Lagrange... but your handle is so easy for me to remember. As an irresponsible GT undergrad back in the day, I had a little road trip to Lagrange, GA. One of those nights I don't really remember; but will NEVER forget.

Murray leads off with a BUNT hit.
Wilhite follows that with a BUNT single. Based on radio description, it's hard to know; but must assume this was designed to be a SAC bunt... but Wilhite laid it in a perfect spot.
[1st and 2nd NO outs]
McCann squares a few times (for a SAC bunt). Takes a couple for balls and fouls a couple (failed execution#1). Ultimately, with no strikes to play with and McCann forced to swing away... he flies out to RF. Murray tags to 3rd. So... double play is still in play; but got the runner to 3rd with less than 2 outs.
[1st and 3rd - 1 out]
Peurifoy bunts in what is described by Wiley and Nick as a safety squeeze (not a suicide squeeze). I did not catch how the defense was aligned; but I'll assume the middle infield was at DP depth and the corners were in to keep runner at 3rd. This squeeze did not work. Pitcher fields ball and makes play to catcher getting Murray trying to score from 3rd (failed execution #2). Nick placed blame here on the runner. He described it as a failure to get a good lead AND walking/running lead.
[1st and 2nd - 2 outs]
Bailey grounds out (FC) 6-4 as Peurifoy is forced out at 2nd.

Summarizing. 3-run lead...just needed to get some insurance runs. Got a couple of hits with balls never leaving the infield. Bunted or attempted to bunt with each of the bottom 4 hitters in our lineup. Failed to execute the "plan" at least twice in this sequence and the FINAL result was no runs in an inning we had runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. Not good.

My opinion on this... Wilhite's attempted SAC turned into a hit. Not sure I like call to bunt there, but sometimes you get lucky (base hit) in spite of a bad decision to bunt. Once you have runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs with a 3-run lead that late in the game, sacrificing them over seems like a very reasonable thing to do. I do take issue with the safety squeeze. Take your chances that Peurifoy can lift a ball for a sac fly OR hit it to a spot that will avoid DP and score the runner from 3rd that way. I have no numbers to back up that... but it feels like the swing away odds would be higher than the safety squeeze deal.

Of note... this is at least the 2nd time this season (Oklahoma) we've failed to execute a safety squeeze and runner was thrown out at home. I did see the OU play, and give OU credit for a perfectly executed defensive play. Ironically.... we won both games.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I thought of the bunt yesterday too in the third inning. Bailey up for the second time. Runner on first and one out and up 1-0. Second pitch is an attempted bunt for strike 2. Fortunately, failed bunt. Three pitches later, HR.

In this case, early in game up only one with the dude who just cranked out the lead off HR, it was a BAD time to bunt. At least in my opinion. And again, fortunately Bailey didn't get the bunt fair.

 

[THWG]

I thought of the bunt yesterday too in the third inning. Bailey up for the second time. Runner on first and one out and up 1-0. Second pitch is an attempted bunt for strike 2. Fortunately, failed bunt. Three pitches later, HR.

In this case, early in game up only one with the dude who just cranked out the lead off HR, it was a BAD time to bunt. At least in my opinion. And again, fortunately Bailey didn't get the bunt fair.

Bailey might have done that one on his own though trying to get a single out of it. I didn't get to watch that part of the game so was it a late square or an early one meant for a sacrifice?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Bailey might have done that one on his own though trying to get a single out of it. I didn't get to watch that part of the game so was it a late square or an early one meant for a sacrifice?

True, I was listening in the car. If 3rd base is playing way back, a bunt for hit can make sense as the highest % way to get on base.

 

[Squints]

Isn't the argument most are making here... the offensive philosophy should be to simply eliminate the sac bunt from the repertoire REGARDLESS of the how strong the pitching staff is. In other words...if you want to score runs with an average to above average offense in college baseball, there is no scenario where you choose to give up outs by bunting...you swing the bat. [with noted exception... the very specific late game need to get one run to win

To give you an actual answer from my POV, the sacrifice bunt is simply a tool. There are certain situations where it can be good strategy to employ it. There's no doubt about that. I think someone who disagrees with that is pushing the point too far. But just like any tool if you're using it outside those situations it is more likely to hinder you. And with the team we have those situations do not come up particularly often. Your pitching staff will play into the whole cost-benefit analysis but I don't think it should play a major role.

We seem to use it as a foundation of our offensive philosophy instead of just a tool. Which is frustrating because it is out of touch with current trends in the sport and doesn't jive with our current offensive roster.