The 1-4 streaks against Duke/VT...

[4shotB]

now that the dust has settled, I would like to explore this topic. Recruiting between these 3 schools (us, Duke, VT) isn't statistically significant according to data I have seen posted here. And I know we have guys way better versed in X's and O's than myself. So I would like to ask - how do you explain the differences in matchups? What does Duke know/do that VT doesn't? Given their success, why doesn't Bud just duplicate Duke's game plan. I know this year VT may be extremely young on D but what about the rest of them?

One thing (and this may be a stretch) but our guys seem to do well (relatively speaking) on the road against bigger names/hostile environments. Athens and Blacksburg. We seem to have historical road funks in relatively downtrodden and forlorn outposts such as Charlottesville, Durham and Chapel Hill. is this possible? (I could probably dig up the data to support/refute this theory but the thing is I'm not really lazy, i just don't care enough to actually do that).

So, I'd like to hear from others their theories, hypothesis, wild speculations, or random musings on the topic. Whatcha got?

 

[OldJacketFan]

now that the dust has settled, I would like to explore this topic. Recruiting between these 3 schools (us, Duke, VT) isn't statistically significant according to data I have seen posted here. And I know we have guys way better versed in X's and O's than myself. So I would like to ask - how do you explain the differences in matchups? What does Duke know/do that VT doesn't? Given their success, why doesn't Bud just duplicate Duke's game plan. I know this year VT may be extremely young on D but what about the rest of them?

One thing (and this may be a stretch) but our guys seem to do well (relatively speaking) on the road against bigger names/hostile environments. Athens and Blacksburg. We seem to have historical road funks in relatively downtrodden and forlorn outposts such as Charlottesville, Durham and Chapel Hill. is this possible? (I could probably dig up the data to support/refute this theory but the thing is I'm not really lazy, i just don't care enough to actually do that).

So, I'd like to hear from others their theories, hypothesis, wild speculations, or random musings on the topic. Whatcha got?

S**t happens

Cutcliffe circles the Tech game as his super bowl, he is a seriously insecure little clown who is still butt hurt that PJ was offered the job before Duke settled on him

 

[GTBatGirl96]

Well you wanted wild speculations..... I just posted this on another site, but I have the feeling (no real data) that Duke sells out to beat us, like Cutcliffe has to prove a point. They had a bye week before us, and I think they usually either get a bye or Army/Navy right before us pretty much each year. They lost to VT and UVA on either side of our game, so I wonder if they focus so much on us that they don't do well against other offenses. I really have no idea why we have this streak against VT.

 

[Jim Prather]

Seeing as Duke "somehow" always manages to get a bye week against us, I would love to see how well they would do when they weren't rested and had fresh legs.

 

[Lavoisier]

Duke has had BYEs or played Army the week before/2 weeks before most of those years. I feel like they schedule specifically to beat us.

Edit: I looked it up 3 BYEs and one year with playing Army before us in the last 5 years.

 

[melloace]

Cutcliffe must really hate his players. Endlessly complains about cut blocks being dangerous, but continues to schedule a 2nd option team to play every year.

It really feels like the GT game is Dukes super bowl. Just watch the difference on defense when they played us and then Virginia the next week. At some points I was about to come out of the stands because of how late they're were constantly hitting our players, but I didn't see that aggression from them against Virginia.

 

[Lavoisier]

I checked our schedule for this year and Duke and VT both had BYEs the week before our game and USF, Clemson, UVA, and UGA all play(ed) cupcakes (no offense to Georgia Southern fans in here) the week before playing us.

 

[bravejason]

I think Cutliffe has found a defensive framework that works really well for his team and GT's offense has struggled to overcome it, so much so that GT is scoring about 15 points per game less than previously. Additionally, Duke has improved their offense is scoring about an extra 15 points per points per game than previously. 30 points is huge swing and it has been enough to turn tide of the series in Duke's favor even though GT had been rolling over Duke in the past.

Against VT what has happened is that GT is scoring about 10 more points than before while doing slightly better at not letting VT score. These games have been close under CPJ, so the extra scoring by GT has made a difference in the win column. As we've seen, CPJ found a better way to defeat Foster's defense (i.e., play the backup QB).

 

[takethepoints]

I've recommended one of my favorite books - Duncan Watts, Everything Is Obvious Once You Know the Answer: How Common Sense Fails Us - here before. He has a discussion in the book on our tendency to ascribe success to individual effort. The problem comes from the normal human tendency to see an explanation for everything. Why do some groups have hit records or some businesses succeed? Our automatic response is that there is something special about the group or the business owner. In fact, you can usually put this down to sheer bum luck. And once the luck strikes you get the Matthew Effect ("For to those who have, more will be given and they will have an abundance, but from those who have nothing, even what they have will be taken away" Matthew 25:29) will ensure that those in top will usually continue there, provided the creek don't rise.

I think that's what's at work here. Consider Coach's overall record against Duke (7 - 3) and VT (4 - 6). Pretty good against Duke except for the last 4 years, pretty bad against VT except for the last 4 years. Does this signal something about Cutliffe and Fuentes? Maybe so, maybe not. Usually the scores are pretty close. More likely it's due to luck during games between fairly even teams.

That doesn't mean that I think we shouldn't shore up our football program; I want to get to the point where we win regularly because we're "those who have", not because we are doing ok and luck is on our side.

 

[UgaBlows]

S**t happens

Cutcliffe circles the Tech game as his super bowl, he is a seriously insecure little clown who is still butt hurt that PJ was offered the job before Duke settled on him

This. Somehow cutcliff and duke have picked us to be their main rival and they forgot to let GT know. I know one thing though, eventually CPJ is going to hang about 71 points on those fools

 

[OldJacketFan]

This. Somehow cutcliff and duke have picked us to be their main rival and they forgot to let GT know. I know one thing though, eventually CPJ is going to hang about 71 points on those fools

LOL!! And you know he will when he has the chance. PJ has never been one to have his teams run up the score unless there is a very personal reason to do so, see loserville this year

 

[slugboy]

This. Somehow cutcliff and duke have picked us to be their main rival and they forgot to let GT know. I know one thing though, eventually CPJ is going to hang about 71 points on those fools

What's he waiting on? This has been going on the past 5 years.

 

[UgaBlows]

What's he waiting on? This has been going on the past 5 years.

For their defense to suck again lol

 

[Boaty1]

S**t happens

Cutcliffe circles the Tech game as his super bowl, he is a seriously insecure little clown who is still butt hurt that PJ was offered the job before Duke settled on him

Tell me this doesn't mean Johnson thought GT was a better program than Duke. Did he not realize all the majors they have?

 

[Boaty1]

Cutcliffe must really hate his players. Endlessly complains about cut blocks being dangerous, but continues to schedule a 2nd option team to play every year.

It really feels like the GT game is Dukes super bowl. Just watch the difference on defense when they played us and then Virginia the next week. At some points I was about to come out of the stands because of how late they're were constantly hitting our players, but I didn't see that aggression from them against Virginia.

It is a big game for Duke. The get 20% of their roster from Ga so it's important they continue to beat us down. It's sad and pathetic to think Duke owns us with Ga kids that we could get but it is the sad reality we find ourselves in.

 

[OldJacketFan]

Tell me this doesn't mean Johnson thought GT was a better program than Duke. Did he not realize all the majors they have?

Go back and read what PJ said when he took the job, it's all out there. But yes he did and still does think GT is a better program

 

[4shotB]

The problem comes from the normal human tendency to see an explanation for everything. Why do some groups have hit records or some businesses succeed? Our automatic response is that there is something special about the group or the business owner. In fact, you can usually put this down to sheer bum luck.

I am not one who automatically discounts luck as nonexistent but....I noticed that Bama has run off a string of 12 IAR vs. UT. The author's theory must have a threshold where below that, tangible things like coaching, recruiting, resources, etc. (in the case of FB) supercede the "bum luck' factors that may intervene in a single game (imo) vs. a series of games. Does he speak to this point in the book?

​

 

[lv20gt]

IMO I think part of it is just a styles match up thing. VT, for whatever reason, has seemed to always struggle with us offensively. I mean their offense struggles. The past several years they scored 22, 20, 23 (their W), 24. 17 (their w) 20 (their w in OT) . In fact the 28 they scored this year is the most since 2011. My take is that the big issue difference comes down to QBs. Duke may have overall less talent but they've had better QB play which makes up for a lot of things. In general, although not this year agianst VT, I feel both defend us pretty well, but Duke has the QB play to be on the right side of the 24 points scored while VT doesn't.

 

[takethepoints]

I am not one who automatically discounts luck as nonexistent but....I noticed that Bama has run off a string of 12 IAR vs. UT. The author's theory must have a threshold where below that, tangible things like coaching, recruiting, resources, etc. (in the case of FB) supercede the "bum luck' factors that may intervene in a single game (imo) vs. a series of games. Does he speak to this point in the book?

Yes, and so do I. You are talking about the Matthew Effect. Bammer is successful in part because people expect them to be and act accordingly. Tulane isn't because it is one of "those who have nothing". I want to get Tech to the "those who have" level because that's when the advantages that start as bum luck begin to accrue.