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Tech's Likelihood of Winning
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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 951530" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>Here are the strength of schedule definitions:</p><p><em>Strength of schedule ratings represent the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against each team's schedule to date (<strong>ELS</strong>), the expected number of losses a good team one standard deviation above average would have against the schedule to date (<strong>GLS</strong>), and the expected number of losses an average team would have against the schedule to date (<strong>ALS</strong>).</em></p><p></p><p>An average team goes 5-7 against our schedule (last year). We were projected for 3.6 wins last year, and Key had most of the wins, so he overachieved vs projections. I don’t have the 2023 numbers yet. A good team (top 25-30) wins about 8 or 9 games against last year’s schedule. An elite team (playoff contender) wins 10 or 11.</p><p></p><p>That shows a couple of things—if you have six patsies and six top ten teams, you’re not going to see much difference between ALS and GLS—you’ll see six wins.</p><p>Our schedule (based on last year) has</p><p>Top 10: 1 team - UGA</p><p>11-20: 1 team - Clemson</p><p>21-30: 2 teams - Louisville and Ole Miss</p><p>31-40: 1 team - Wake (no Pitt this year ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ )</p><p>41-50: 1 team - Syracuse</p><p>51-60: 0 teams</p><p>61-70: 1 team - UNC</p><p>71-80: 0 teams</p><p>81-90: 1 team - Miami</p><p>91-100: 1 team - UVA</p><p>101-110: 1 team - Boston College</p><p>Beyond 110: Bowling Green and South Carolina State</p><p></p><p>If we ignore home field advantage (we shouldn’t ) and we assume Miami doesn’t improve (they will) and we assume matchups don’t matter (they do) and overlook luck and injuries (etc.):</p><p></p><p>A BC quality team gets 3 wins.</p><p>A GT team last season gets 5 wins (4 if we factor in home field)</p><p>An average team gets 5 wins. So, we could improve A LOT and get the same number of wins</p><p>An above-average top 50 team gets 6 wins</p><p>A top 40 team gets 7 wins</p><p>A number 25 team gets 8 wins</p><p>A top 20 team gets 10 wins</p><p>A top 10 team gets 11 wins</p><p>A number 1 team gets 12 wins.</p><p></p><p>I’m overestimating a little—you could take one win away from those and still have about the same view of the schedule. Anywhere from +1 win to -2 wins from the numbers above is a conservative range.</p><p></p><p>Also, Louisville is a tough team to start the season with. If we win that, it’s a BIG win.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 951530, member: 282"] Here are the strength of schedule definitions: [I]Strength of schedule ratings represent the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against each team's schedule to date ([B]ELS[/B]), the expected number of losses a good team one standard deviation above average would have against the schedule to date ([B]GLS[/B]), and the expected number of losses an average team would have against the schedule to date ([B]ALS[/B]).[/I] An average team goes 5-7 against our schedule (last year). We were projected for 3.6 wins last year, and Key had most of the wins, so he overachieved vs projections. I don’t have the 2023 numbers yet. A good team (top 25-30) wins about 8 or 9 games against last year’s schedule. An elite team (playoff contender) wins 10 or 11. That shows a couple of things—if you have six patsies and six top ten teams, you’re not going to see much difference between ALS and GLS—you’ll see six wins. Our schedule (based on last year) has Top 10: 1 team - UGA 11-20: 1 team - Clemson 21-30: 2 teams - Louisville and Ole Miss 31-40: 1 team - Wake (no Pitt this year ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ) 41-50: 1 team - Syracuse 51-60: 0 teams 61-70: 1 team - UNC 71-80: 0 teams 81-90: 1 team - Miami 91-100: 1 team - UVA 101-110: 1 team - Boston College Beyond 110: Bowling Green and South Carolina State If we ignore home field advantage (we shouldn’t ) and we assume Miami doesn’t improve (they will) and we assume matchups don’t matter (they do) and overlook luck and injuries (etc.): A BC quality team gets 3 wins. A GT team last season gets 5 wins (4 if we factor in home field) An average team gets 5 wins. So, we could improve A LOT and get the same number of wins An above-average top 50 team gets 6 wins A top 40 team gets 7 wins A number 25 team gets 8 wins A top 20 team gets 10 wins A top 10 team gets 11 wins A number 1 team gets 12 wins. I’m overestimating a little—you could take one win away from those and still have about the same view of the schedule. Anywhere from +1 win to -2 wins from the numbers above is a conservative range. Also, Louisville is a tough team to start the season with. If we win that, it’s a BIG win. [/QUOTE]
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