Stats models and rankings

roadkill

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
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slugboy said:
It values different things. Here’s what SP+ cares about (from Footballstudyhall.com)

FIVE FACTORS​

Explosiveness

Current Ways to Measure:
* Yards per play
* PPP
* PPP+

Efficiency

Current Ways to Measure:
* Success Rate
* Third-down conversions

Field Position

Current Ways to Measure:
* Average starting field position
* FPA

Finishing Drives

Current Ways to Measure:
* Points per Trip inside the 40
* Red zone scoring
* Red zone S&P+

Turnovers

Current Ways to Measure:
* Turnover margin
* Adj. Turnover margin
* Turnovers luck


For Turnovers, Finishing Drives, and Efficiency, we weren’t great.

Success Rate, we’re #49.
Field position, we’re #72
Touchdown rate, we’re #44
Turnover rate, we’re #103


It was strange Saturday to hear about our powerful rushing attack. When we started the season, this board was convinced we couldn’t run
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Thanks again. I had to look up why Field Position is an offensive stat, but it made sense after I read the explanation that the offensive stat is actually the defensive starting field position. I think what hurt us there is 1. interceptions, and 2. below-average special team play. The latter is not the responsibility of the offense, but Connelly says it is a factor in the SFP.

Gameonpaper indicated that uga had a 7-yard advantage in field position Saturday, despite us not throwing any interceptions and recovering a fumble at the uga 37. Our special teams, particularly on kickoffs, really hurt us there.
 
stinger78

stinger78

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4,316
roadkill said:
Thanks again. I had to look up why Field Position is an offensive stat, but it made sense after I read the explanation that the offensive stat is actually the defensive starting field position. I think what hurt us there is 1. interceptions, and 2. below-average special team play. The latter is not the responsibility of the offense, but Connelly says it is a factor in the SFP.

Gameonpaper indicated that uga had a 7-yard advantage in field position Saturday, despite us not throwing any interceptions and recovering a fumble at the uga 37. Our special teams, particularly on kickoffs, really hurt us there.
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I have no idea what the heck we’re doing on KO’s. Whatever it is it ain’t working. Go back to kicking it deep in the EZ.
 
roadkill

roadkill

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stinger78 said:
I have no idea what the heck we’re doing on KO’s. Whatever it is it ain’t working. Go back to kicking it deep in the EZ.
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KQ's answer was that Stewart has been injured since the UNC game, and Birr doesn't have the leg to consistently kick deep. Birr has been used a little on kickoffs but I think it was all Stewart last Saturday.
In light of this, the plan on Saturday may have been to try to kick high, short, and to one side to minimize returns. Regardless, it didn't work well from a field position standpoint. I hold our special teams coach responsible for knowing what's going on with the player's injuries and capabilities, and putting our best option on the field - and yet we've struggled some with this throughout the season.

We only have one other kicker on the roster, a true freshman, probably a walk-on.
 

Root4GT

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3,048
roadkill said:
KQ's answer was that Stewart has been injured since the UNC game, and Birr doesn't have the leg to consistently kick deep. Birr has been used a little on kickoffs but I think it was all Stewart last Saturday.
In light of this, the plan on Saturday may have been to try to kick high, short, and to one side to minimize returns. Regardless, it didn't work well from a field position standpoint. I hold our special teams coach responsible for knowing what's going on with the player's injuries and capabilities, and putting our best option on the field - and yet we've struggled some with this throughout the season.

We only have one other kicker on the roster, a true freshman, probably a walk-on.
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The plan was sound. The execution was lacking. I have no idea if we play starters on KO coverage. I would doubt many do. The issue then becomes a depth issue for really good players on STs. Not much you can do with a hurt kicker. Likely didn't want to risk Birr on KOs as he was very good kicking FGs.
 
roadkill

roadkill

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Root4GT said:
The plan was sound. The execution was lacking. I have no idea if we play starters on KO coverage. I would doubt many do. The issue then becomes a depth issue for really good players on STs. Not much you can do with a hurt kicker. Likely didn't want to risk Birr on KOs as he was very good kicking FGs.
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Your assessment is probably correct. On coverage, I know I've seen Moala because he got a strip fumble in a recent game. Don't know about the others but I noticed that we have several guys overrun the opposing ball carrier a good bit. When our kicker or punter has to make the tackle, usually we screwed up somewhere.
 
stinger78

stinger78

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I used to be able to put a ball off a tee into the EZ. Granted, it was from the 40. Anyway, I cannot believe we have only one kicker who can put the ball in the end zone. That’s sad. Tell me we don’t have a S American or African soccer player anywhere on campus that cannot kick a football 70 yards off a tee.
 

FlatsLander

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
913
stinger78 said:
I used to be able to put a ball off a tee into the EZ. Granted, it was from the 40. Anyway, I cannot believe we have only one kicker who can put the ball in the end zone. That’s sad. Tell me we don’t have a S American or African soccer player anywhere on campus that cannot kick a football 70 yards off a tee.
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How hard is it really to kick a football 65 yards off a tee? I know the strategy is to kick it really high, but it seems like you could kick it a bit lower and clear the EZ every time. Although, I've never tried it haha
 

jgtengineer

Helluva Engineer
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2,969
FlatsLander said:
How hard is it really to kick a football 65 yards off a tee? I know the strategy is to kick it really high, but it seems like you could kick it a bit lower and clear the EZ every time. Although, I've never tried it haha
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The issue is what happens when your planning to kick it into the endzone and you fail... thats when big returns happen. The pooch wasn't a bad call we just weren't executing it well enough.
 
stinger78

stinger78

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jgtengineer said:
The issue is what happens when your planning to kick it into the endzone and you fail... thats when big returns happen. The pooch wasn't a bad call we just weren't executing it well enough.
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Yeah, you have to get height and length. Otherwise, it comes back at you. Also, as noted, the misses can really hurt, whether it a shank, a line drive, or a sky ball. It’s really bad if you shank left and you’ve called a kick right. All that should work out with practice, though.
 

GetYourBuzzOn

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
77
For those interested, Bill Connelly had a good interview on the Bet the Process podcast yesterday about his SP+ model. Warning that this is a super nerdy podcast- the hosts are Rufus Peabody (of the Massey-Peabody ratings, considered the world's best golf modeler/bettor) and Jeff Ma (of MIT blackjack fame).

 
LongforDodd

LongforDodd

LatinxBreakfastTacos
Messages
3,193
Root4GT said:
The plan was sound. The execution was lacking. I have no idea if we play starters on KO coverage. I would doubt many do. The issue then becomes a depth issue for really good players on STs. Not much you can do with a hurt kicker. Likely didn't want to risk Birr on KOs as he was very good kicking FGs.
Click to expand...
I've always believed that your ST's are an indication of your overall team depth.

I'll say no more
 
slugboy

slugboy

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Staff member
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End of the regular season—here are the ratings of the ratings: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/andrew.percival/viz/CFBPicker/Standings

  1. Room44 : https://twitter.com/Room44B
  2. DRatings : https://x.com/dratings
  3. CBCR2 : https://x.com/chapelbellcurve
  4. CFB Geek : https://x.com/cfb_geek
  5. Blake Atkinson. https://x.com/blaketatkinson
As for the composite ratings



Last year, we were near the bottom of the ACC, now we’re an average team. That’s huge progress.

Much different view of who the top 4 teams are for the CFP—this says
1. Oregon
2. Mich
3. UGA
4. Ohio State

IMG_0351.jpeg


IMG_0350.jpeg
 
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