Start Time vs Record/Attendance

[GTRX7]

I decided to take a look at the potential impact of start time for home games in recent years on our record and on attendance. I looked at 2014 - the present, which starts with Tech coming off of an average 7-6 season and includes some good (2014, 2016) and bad years (2015, 2017, 2018). Here is what I found:

Since 2014, we have had the following start times for Saturday games:
20 games with noon/12:30 start times
4 games with 3:30 start times
3 games with 7:30 start times
3 Thursday night games

That in and of itself is a bit staggering!

Attendance:
12/12:30 - average 46.3k (removing UGA games, average 45.2k)
3:30 - average 49.6k
Thursday Night - 50.5k
7:30 - average 50.7k

Seems like a clear trend that attendance does better 7:30 > 3:30 > noon.

P5 Record:
12/12:30 - 7-6
3:30 - 1-2
Thursday night - 1-2
7:30 - 3-0

Honestly, with such extreme data, I am not sure the records can even be compared, but it is notable that we won all three Saturday night games, including wins over Miami and FSU.

Some Interesting Notes:
Clemson - noon (2014) - 49k
Clemson - 3.30 (2018) - 50.5k
Clemson - 7:30 (Thursday night 2016) - 54k

Alcorn - noon (2018) - 39.7k
Alcorn - 7:30 (Thursday night 2015) - 49.2k

UVA - noon (2016) = 42.1k
UVA - 3:30 (2014) - 46.6k

 

[COJacket]

I decided to take a look at the potential impact of start time for home games in recent years on our record and on attendance. I looked at 2014 - the present, which starts with Tech coming off of an average 7-6 season and includes some good (2014, 2016) and bad years (2015, 2017, 2018). Here is what I found:

Since 2014, we have had the following start times for Saturday games:
20 games with noon/12:30 start times
4 games with 3:30 start times
3 games with 7:30 start times
3 Thursday night games

That in and of itself is a bit staggering!

Attendance:
12/12:30 - average 46.3k (removing UGA games, average 45.2k)
3:30 - average 49.6k
Thursday Night - 50.5k
7:30 - average 50.7k

Seems like a clear trend that attendance does better 7:30 > 3:30 > noon.

P5 Record:
12/12:30 - 7-6
3:30 - 1-2
Thursday night - 1-2
7:30 - 3-0

Honestly, with such extreme data, I am not sure the records can even be compared, but it is notable that we won all three Saturday night games, including wins over Miami and FSU.

Some Interesting Notes:
Clemson - noon (2014) - 49k
Clemson - 3.30 (2018) - 50.5k
Clemson - 7:30 (Thursday night 2016) - 54k

Alcorn - noon (2018) - 39.7k
Alcorn - 7:30 (Thursday night 2015) - 49.2k

UVA - noon (2016) = 42.1k
UVA - 3:30 (2014) - 46.6k

Interesting data. Thanks for doing this!

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I decided to take a look at the potential impact of start time for home games in recent years on our record and on attendance. I looked at 2014 - the present, which starts with Tech coming off of an average 7-6 season and includes some good (2014, 2016) and bad years (2015, 2017, 2018). Here is what I found:

Since 2014, we have had the following start times for Saturday games:
20 games with noon/12:30 start times
4 games with 3:30 start times
3 games with 7:30 start times
3 Thursday night games

That in and of itself is a bit staggering!

Attendance:
12/12:30 - average 46.3k (removing UGA games, average 45.2k)
3:30 - average 49.6k
Thursday Night - 50.5k
7:30 - average 50.7k

Seems like a clear trend that attendance does better 7:30 > 3:30 > noon.

P5 Record:
12/12:30 - 7-6
3:30 - 1-2
Thursday night - 1-2
7:30 - 3-0

Honestly, with such extreme data, I am not sure the records can even be compared, but it is notable that we won all three Saturday night games, including wins over Miami and FSU.

Some Interesting Notes:
Clemson - noon (2014) - 49k
Clemson - 3.30 (2018) - 50.5k
Clemson - 7:30 (Thursday night 2016) - 54k

Alcorn - noon (2018) - 39.7k
Alcorn - 7:30 (Thursday night 2015) - 49.2k

UVA - noon (2016) = 42.1k
UVA - 3:30 (2014) - 46.6k

This is the type of thing I love about this community. Great analysis.

Reminds me of the crap where we've had 22 Bye Weeks given to ACC teams before playing us while we have only had 11 in CPJs tenure. Our win percentage is twice as good when we get a Bye but the other team hasn't compared to the other way around.

Its these types of BS scheduling issues that legitimately cost us wins and money. For no reason other than incompetence and/or bias in the central offices.

 

[Gold1]

Wow. Just reinforces how much noon games suck

 

[katlong]

I think this is excellent info; however, I think you must also take into consideration at least 2 other factors...(otherwise, it's us making the stats say what we want - and of course, that's the point, right? to say noon games stink? haha)

1. What was the w/l record at the time of the later games vs the noon games (as we know that our fair-weathered friends don't show up when the team is on a losing streak and we don't get the later games unless we are having a great season or play an important opponent having a great season)
2. Who were the opponents? (I realize you did three at the bottom which is great, but I think more info is needed to be completely fair)

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I think this is excellent info; however, I think you must also take into consideration at least 2 other factors...(otherwise, it's us making the stats say what we want - and of course, that's the point, right? to say noon games stink? haha)

1. What was the w/l record at the time of the later games vs the noon games (as we know that our fair-weathered friends don't show up when the team is on a losing streak and we don't get the later games unless we are having a great season or play an important opponent having a great season)
2. Who were the opponents? (I realize you did three at the bottom which is great, but I think more info is needed to be completely fair)

Without doing any research (which is always a risk right?), CPJ has only been below 0.500 in ACC play once in his 11 years. Most years we're 4-4, 5-3...meaning if these schedules were based on the better teams who win more getting later time slots, we should be getting mid afternoon or later at least half the time if not more. Its not even close to that.

 

[katlong]

Without doing any research (which is always a risk right?), CPJ has only been below 0.500 in ACC play once in his 11 years. Most years we're 4-4, 5-3...meaning if these schedules were based on the better teams who win more getting later time slots, we should be getting mid afternoon or later at least half the time if not more. Its not even close to that.

The "rule" is that coaches and players have nothing to do with the schedule, but since we know CPJ prefers noon games...well, maybe he's just that lucky? (not)

 

[GTRX7]

I think this is excellent info; however, I think you must also take into consideration at least 2 other factors...(otherwise, it's us making the stats say what we want - and of course, that's the point, right? to say noon games stink? haha)

1. What was the w/l record at the time of the later games vs the noon games (as we know that our fair-weathered friends don't show up when the team is on a losing streak and we don't get the later games unless we are having a great season or play an important opponent having a great season)
2. Who were the opponents? (I realize you did three at the bottom which is great, but I think more info is needed to be completely fair)

I think the P5 win/loss data for noon games basically normalizes itself over the 2014-2018 seasons, as that has accounted for virtually all of our regularly scheduled opponents in both good and bad years. The 3:30 and 7:30 games were also spread out over the good and bad years. For 3:30 games, we beat UVA in 2014 and lost to UNC in 2015 and Clemson this year. We also beat Tulane in 2015 and Mercer in 2016. (Notably, both the Tulane and Mercer games drew over 50k fans.) For 7:30 Saturday games, we beat Miami in 2014, FSU in 2015, and Wake in 2017. On Thusday nights, we played Alcorn in the opener in 2015, Va Tech in 2015, and Clemson in 2016.

Unfortunately, it is just not possible to get a lot of attendance data for the same opponents at different start times. I guess I missed UNC, which also supports greater attendance for later games and breaks down as follows:
UNC - noon (2017) - 42.8k
UNC - 3:30 (2015) - 50.5k

We have only played Duke and Pitt at noon over these years, so no comparison is possible, and Va Tech was slightly higher for a Thursday night game in 2015 (48.5k) than the noon game in 2017 (47.9k). Miami was actually slightly higher in noon 2016 (53k) than 7:30 2014 (52.2k).

None of this data is perfect, but I think it does show some clear trends, particularly in the attendance department, and possibly for night Saturday night games.

 

[katlong]

I think the P5 win/loss data for noon games basically normalizes itself over the 2014-2018 seasons, as that has accounted for virtually all of our regularly scheduled opponents in both good and bad years. The 3:30 and 7:30 games were also spread out over the good and bad years. For 3:30 games, we beat UVA in 2014 and lost to UNC in 2015 and Clemson this year. We also beat Tulane in 2015 and Mercer in 2016. (Notably, both the Tulane and Mercer games drew over 50k fans.) For 7:30 Saturday games, we beat Miami in 2014, FSU in 2015, and Wake in 2017. On Thusday nights, we played Alcorn in the opener in 2015, Va Tech in 2015, and Clemson in 2016.

Unfortunately, it is just not possible to get a lot of attendance data for the same opponents at different start times. I guess I missed UNC, which also supports greater attendance for later games and breaks down as follows:
UNC - noon (2017) - 42.8k
UNC - 3:30 (2015) - 50.5k

We have only played Duke and Pitt at noon over these years, so no comparison is possible, and Va Tech was slightly higher for a Thursday night game in 2015 (48.5k) than the noon game in 2017 (47.9k). Miami was actually slightly higher in noon 2016 (53k) than 7:30 2014 (52.2k).

None of this data is perfect, but I think it does show some clear trends, particularly in the attendance department, and possibly for night Saturday night games.

It's interesting, though, that a noon Miami game was higher than a night game..........I am in agreement with the overall trend - I just think there are additional factors that play into it - where the opponent is from (how close is their fan base to Atlanta), who the opponent is, what our w/l is at the time the game is played, what part of the season it is, etc. I think it's pretty obvious that the fan base at large doesn't like noon games - but if you ignore the factors altogether then that's like saying our w/l record doesn't influence attendance; only the time played does. Either way, yes, noon starts are tough on the attendance. And we've played our fair share of them.

 

[GTRX7]

It's interesting, though, that a noon Miami game was higher than a night game..........I am in agreement with the overall trend - I just think there are additional factors that play into it - where the opponent is from (how close is their fan base to Atlanta), who the opponent is, what our w/l is at the time the game is played, what part of the season it is, etc. I think it's pretty obvious that the fan base at large doesn't like noon games - but if you ignore the factors altogether then that's like saying our w/l record doesn't influence attendance; only the time played does. Either way, yes, noon starts are tough on the attendance. And we've played our fair share of them.

For sure. I definitely agree there are multiple factors going into each of these games. But I do firmly believe we average at least one more win a season if our schedule had two things: (1) one less game against a team with a bye or FCS/option team the week before us and (2) one less noon game. I suspect we average around double the instances of each compared to other ACC teams.

 

[Animal02]

Regardless...ESPN does not care about what it's scheduling does to attendance.

 

[katlong]

For sure. I definitely agree there are multiple factors going into each of these games. But I do firmly believe we average at least one more win a season if our schedule had two things: (1) one less game against a team with a bye or FCS/option team the week before us and (2) one less noon game. I suspect we average around double the instances of each compared to other ACC teams.

Amen to (1)!!!!!!!!! so annoying!

 

[Deleted member 2897]

For sure. I definitely agree there are multiple factors going into each of these games. But I do firmly believe we average at least one more win a season if our schedule had two things: (1) one less game against a team with a bye or FCS/option team the week before us and (2) one less noon game. I suspect we average around double the instances of each compared to other ACC teams.

Not only do we have 2 Byes against us this year, but check out the ACC schedule on 11/10. There is only 1 team out of the 15 who plays an FCS team that week. That was set in the schedule a long time ago before the ACC schedule was released. So cynically, I predicted we’d play that ACC team the following week. And sure enough, it happened. Only team in the ACC and we play them the following week - nice “odds”.

 

[GTRX7]

Not only do we have 2 Byes against us this year, but check out the ACC schedule on 11/10. There is only 1 team out of the 15 who plays an FCS team that week. That was set in the schedule a long time ago before the ACC schedule was released. So cynically, I predicted we’d play that ACC team the following week. And sure enough, it happened. Only team in the ACC and we play them the following week - nice “odds”.

UGA also scheduled UMass the week before us. For not caring about us, they sure do manage to schedule a cupcake before us seemingly every single year!

 

[Dustman]

A little bit off topic here, but from 2014 thru 2017 we have had 16 noon starts at home vs 8 noon starts away. (12 or 12:30)

Last year it was 5-0

 

[Deleted member 2897]

UGA also scheduled UMass the week before us. For not caring about us, they sure do manage to schedule a cupcake before us seemingly every single year!

Oh yea, here are some of the winners Georgia has scheduled before us in the last decade: UMass, Louisiana-Lafayette, Georgia Southern (2x), Charleston Southern... the only half-real team they've played before us in the last decade is Kentucky.

 

[GTRX7]

A little bit off topic here, but from 2014 thru 2017 we have had 16 noon starts at home vs 8 noon starts away. (12 or 12:30)

Last year it was 5-0

Sort of cuts through the argument that we only get noon games because nobody cares against Tech. I mean, Tech is also one of the teams playing in our away games too.

Not all the teams that have hosted Tech for a 3pm or later game since 2014 were "powerhouses" either (Tulane, UNC, UVA, Duke). Here are the away games we have played since 2014 starting 3pm or later:

2014
@Tulane - 4pm
@UNC - 7pm
@Pitt - 3:30 pm

2015
@ND - 3:30pm
@Clemson - 3:30pm
@UVA - 3pm

2016
@VT - 3:30pm

2017
@Miami - 3:30pm
@Clemson - 8pm
@UVA - 3pm
@Duke - 3:30pm

2018
@UL - 7pm (Friday)
@VT - 7:30 (Thursday)

So, we have played 7 weekend home games after 3pm since 2014 and 12 away weekend games after 3pm. That is almost 2 to 1.

We have played 3 Thursday home games vs. 1 over that time, but that is not the same thing. I can't tailgate all day or get saucy with work that day and the next morning. Tailgating is part of the lifeblood of home football, and the ACC/ESPN has largely robbed me of that over the last few years!

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

UGA also scheduled UMass the week before us. For not caring about us, they sure do manage to schedule a cupcake before us seemingly every single year!

Yep. They used to play Auburn the week before COFH. Those days are long gone.

 

[iceeater1969]

For sure. I definitely agree there are multiple factors going into each of these games. But I do firmly believe we average at least one more win a season if our schedule had two things: (1) one less game against a team with a bye or FCS/option team the week before us and (2) one less noon game. I suspect we average around double the instances of each compared to other ACC teams.

Great info.
Can't disagree with the first point about byes/fcs. That's at least 1/2 game per year.

 

[LibertyTurns]

3,000 tickets x $50 x 6 games plus parking/refreshments, etc is nothing to sneeze about. Think GT could have used another $15M in its athletic budget the last 10 years? That’s not even counting the revenue from prime time exposure.