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<blockquote data-quote="RamblinRed" data-source="post: 702746" data-attributes="member: 1776"><p>Right now i feel like there is unlikely to be any professional sports before Independence Day. And really I think it is likely to be later than that.</p><p></p><p>If you really think about what they are trying to do right now, it is to slow down the spread of the virus and spread the cases out over a longer period (not necessarily reduce the number of cases since there is no immunity.). </p><p>Staying put for 2 weeks, 4 weeks is unlikely to accomplish what they want. As soon as everyone goes back to normal patterns then you start to have a huge spike - which is what they are trying to prevent. </p><p></p><p>I sort of think the isolation tactics will be in force for 6-12 months with the population paying less attention to them the longer they go, but hopefully enough is done that any spikes are less than what they otherwise would be in order to keep mortality rates as low as possible. What will spike mortality rates is if we run out of beds and ventilators - which is what happened in Italy where the current mortality rate as of today is almost 8% (understanding that is high due to the denominator being too low measuring positive cases to deaths).</p><p></p><p>Ironically Italy has the 2nd highest rated health system in the world by the WHO, just shows that it doesn't matter how good your system is if it is overrun and you can't keep up.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="RamblinRed, post: 702746, member: 1776"] Right now i feel like there is unlikely to be any professional sports before Independence Day. And really I think it is likely to be later than that. If you really think about what they are trying to do right now, it is to slow down the spread of the virus and spread the cases out over a longer period (not necessarily reduce the number of cases since there is no immunity.). Staying put for 2 weeks, 4 weeks is unlikely to accomplish what they want. As soon as everyone goes back to normal patterns then you start to have a huge spike - which is what they are trying to prevent. I sort of think the isolation tactics will be in force for 6-12 months with the population paying less attention to them the longer they go, but hopefully enough is done that any spikes are less than what they otherwise would be in order to keep mortality rates as low as possible. What will spike mortality rates is if we run out of beds and ventilators - which is what happened in Italy where the current mortality rate as of today is almost 8% (understanding that is high due to the denominator being too low measuring positive cases to deaths). Ironically Italy has the 2nd highest rated health system in the world by the WHO, just shows that it doesn't matter how good your system is if it is overrun and you can't keep up. [/QUOTE]
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