Special Teams 2015 Review and Look Forward

dressedcheeseside

Helluva Engineer
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Yes. We are talking about kickoffs. We had 62 in 2015, with 41 touchbacks and 19 returns. The reason I mentioned the 2 not counted is that we are basically talking about, as expected, all non-touchbacks as returns.

The reason I mentioned average was not to insult your understanding of its definition but highlight why only 10 teams allowed more than 25 yds ave KR.
Rankings can be deceiving, especially when the degree of separation between teams within a particular ranking in so minuscule. We ranked tied for 100 with our opponents averaging 23.16 ypko. If we improve that stat by a mere 1 yard to 22.16, we jump from 100 all the way to 81. If we improve it another yard, we jump to 61.

So that begs the question, how much better would our record have been if we had allowed two less yards per kickoff? 39 rank places in your analysis means what, exactly? Clemson ranked below us at 116. How much did it hurt them?

Give me a touchback every kick if you please.

There's another consideration to make. Every team in that ranking do not face the same competition, the same returners, the same kickoff block teams.

Then there's end of half/game squib kicks and the occasional sky kick (which I assume is where our fair catches came from.)

What do you think our strategy should be on kick offs? Sky to the one and cover? If we could cover, I'd love to do this. But I'd rather give it to them on the 25 with no chance of a big return with the team we have now.
 

AE 87

Helluva Engineer
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Rankings can be deceiving, especially when the degree of separation between teams within a particular ranking in so minuscule. We ranked tied for 100 with our opponents averaging 23.16 ypko. If we improve that stat by a mere 1 yard to 22.16, we jump from 100 all the way to 81. If we improve it another yard, we jump to 61.

So that begs the question, how much better would our record have been if we had allowed two less yards per kickoff? 39 rank places in your analysis means what, exactly? Clemson ranked below us at 116. How much did it hurt them?

Give me a touchback every kick if you please.

There's another consideration to make. Every team in that ranking do not face the same competition, the same returners, the same kickoff block teams.

Then there's end of half/game squib kicks and the occasional sky kick (which I assume is where our fair catches came from.)

What do you think our strategy should be on kick offs? Sky to the one and cover? If we could cover, I'd love to do this. But I'd rather give it to them on the 25 with no chance of a big return with the team we have now.

The straw man you are creating here annoys me, but has come to be expected unfortunately. My only point was that we didn't cover kick returns very well imo. For you to infer and suggest anything from this about what strategy I would prefer is a waste of time.

I apologize for responding to you in the first place .
 

dressedcheeseside

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14,212
The straw man you are creating here annoys me, but has come to be expected unfortunately. My only point was that we didn't cover kick returns very well imo. For you to infer and suggest anything from this about what strategy I would prefer is a waste of time.

I apologize for responding to you in the first place .
I'm not inferring anything, just asking. So, given our personnel, what should our strategy be? Cover kicks better is not a strategy. Oh and condescension from you is to be expected. And since you failed to rebut my main point, I guess you concur.
 

AE 87

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13,025
I'm not inferring anything, just asking. So, given our personnel, what should our strategy be? Cover kicks better is not a strategy. Oh and condescension from you is to be expected. And since you failed to rebut my main point, I guess you concur.

Why do you do that? Why do you insist on putting words and opinions in my mouth? (As if I was going to suggest that cover kicks better is a strategy) That is an example of condescension.

There was no condescension in my post. You created a straw man by changing the topic to possibly having a different strategy and suggesting that I would rather sky kick and cover than go for touchbacks. Re-read your post. You didn't just ask a question. You loaded the question to suggest my opinion on the topic of strategy that wasn't even under discussion. That's just a fact. That's what you did. When I pointed that out and say that you've done that in the past, that's not condescension. It's a fact and an expression of my frustration in trying to discuss things with you.

Let's just review so that I can try once more to clarify my position. It began with @Dustman expressing his recollection that when we didn't get a touchback, we typically didn't hold the opponents inside the 25, typically 25-30 he said. I posted data to support his recollection, specifically our opposition KR ave was greater than 23. (as it turns out, this data actually makes the issue more complex than what he said).

Rather than letting stand that fact the data supported his recollection, you responded:
Eh, if it's under 25, I'm happy. If we had 100% touchbacks, the average would be even worse but I'd be more thrilled.

Now, my reply to this focused on the issue of your happiness if the KR average is under 25 by highlighting that it's really not that great considering that it may mean we give up too many big returns. I hadn't checked, but as it turns out, in our 19 opposition KR, we gave up a total of 8 over 30, including 5 over 50 (with 1 between 80-90 and 1 over 90). I guess we disagree, but I think that when 1/3 of your opponents' KR go for more than 40 yards, that's not good.

However, I should have considered the last part of your quote more closely. When you said, "If we had 100% touchbacks, the average would be even worse," it seems to me that you don't understand that a touchback doesn't get counted as a KR since 100% touchbacks would translate to 0 yards of KR, which is better. It also seems to me that you were thinking that a KR always starts at the goal line rather than from wherever the kick is caught. Now, of course, by saying, "seems to me" I'm emphasizing that these are my understandings of your words, not putting new words in your mouth.

Finally, your discussion of relative rankings between 80 and 50 is beside the point that I was making, as I hope my discussion of long returns makes clear.
 

Dustman

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1,243
Thanks for the data @AE 87. I didn't remember us giving up that many long returns last year and likewise don't remember us balancing those out with short returns either. Guessing penalties figure into the equation as well. I can't remember the last time we tackled anyone inside the 20 on a kickoff.

Sorry if I created a stir here with anyone. I don't post a lot but I read this forum all the time and enjoy the discussion.
 

LongforDodd

LatinxBreakfastTacos
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3,177
.... just trying to explain why 59 teams are better according to this metric.

There could be a correlation to our overall recruiting ranking. No team generally puts all of the their best players out there on ST's (some of the best? sure...one here. One or two there). I don't know how to gingerly say this but it's a reflection of our overall recruiting.
 

Dustman

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There could be a correlation to our overall recruiting ranking. No team generally puts all of the their best players out there on ST's (some of the best? sure...one here. One or two there). I don't know how to gingerly say this but it's a reflection of our overall recruiting.
I was just trying to answer the OPs question of why we are #60 when Butker ranks so highly with touchback%.

I will go out on a limb and say most on this board are happy with touchbacks.
 

Whiskey_Clear

Banned
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10,486
I do think with the number of speed guys (including ABs n WRs), safetys, and linebackers we have capable of playing....along with a big leg kicker....our kickoff coverage should be pretty good this year. If it's not I'm either wrong about our depth or we aren't coaching it up right.
 

Dustman

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The exciting thing about special teams to me is that you don't know who we are going to throw out there until the game starts. I always look forward to the new guys taking the field for the first time. This year I will be watching for #32.
 

CuseJacket

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Remember when we cut Duke's lead to one score in the 3rd quarter, then DeVon Edwards housed the following kickoff 100 yds for a TD?

Fun times...:vomit:
 

GTNavyNuke

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Williamsburg Virginia
Keeping it simple, the higher your touch back %, the better your kick off yards in general. This is last year's data for all teams.

So when we are kicking, I'd be ecstatic if Butker got even higher than 66% TBs. 100% would be nice.

When the ball is kicked to us, this would be my strategy:
1) take the TB if you can so you don't lose the ball and get 25+ yards return.
2) don't lose the ball.
3) get the yards you can without losing the ball.


3b476c1i85y6tp46g.jpg
 

AE 87

Helluva Engineer
Messages
13,025
Keeping it simple, the higher your touch back %, the better your kick off yards in general. This is last year's data for all teams.

So when we are kicking, I'd be ecstatic if Butker got even higher than 66% TBs. 100% would be nice.

When the ball is kicked to us, this would be my strategy:
1) take the TB if you can so you don't lose the ball and get 25+ yards return.
2) don't lose the ball.
3) get the yards you can without losing the ball.


3b476c1i85y6tp46g.jpg

Wait, you're saying that the more kick0ffs that go for the maximum of 65 yds, the higher your kickoff average will be? smdh, crazy
 

GTNavyNuke

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Featured Member
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Location
Williamsburg Virginia
Rankings can be deceiving, especially when the degree of separation between teams within a particular ranking in so minuscule. We ranked tied for 100 with our opponents averaging 23.16 ypko. If we improve that stat by a mere 1 yard to 22.16, we jump from 100 all the way to 81. If we improve it another yard, we jump to 61.

So that begs the question, how much better would our record have been if we had allowed two less yards per kickoff? 39 rank places in your analysis means what, exactly? Clemson ranked below us at 116. How much did it hurt them?

Give me a touchback every kick if you please.

There's another consideration to make. Every team in that ranking do not face the same competition, the same returners, the same kickoff block teams.

Then there's end of half/game squib kicks and the occasional sky kick (which I assume is where our fair catches came from.)

What do you think our strategy should be on kick offs? Sky to the one and cover? If we could cover, I'd love to do this. But I'd rather give it to them on the 25 with no chance of a big return with the team we have now.

+1. If we got a touchback every time, we'd have the best average number of yards per kickoff of all teams. And Butker is getting better ...... plus he had no out of bounds last year. Some of the kickers with big legs have OOB kicks which really hurts the average yards per kick. Probably from trying to directionally kick to a corner. Just kick the snot out of the ball out of the back of the end zone. In the band is best ..... Butker did that maybe 6 times last year.

+1 on the difference in 2 yards on a kickoff returned to the 23 or 25 or 27. That's why the FEI ratings give a value to every play not only on how many yards but where the yards are gained. It's based on the scoring potential from each yard marker.

Also, most FEI ratings are based on points scored per play. ST aren't ranked that way I don't think and aren't that heavily weighted except for FGs. Again, as I said in the first posts, I don't understand how Butker can be ranked so high given his low completion percentage. He missed some short kicks which lost a lot of points per attempt, and not in trash time. But I'd rather have Butker than 90% of the other kickers. To get drafted in the NFL (not a walk on), I think he will need to get his completion % up this final year.
 
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