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Special Teams are really important to the success of a season. Not as important as the offense or defense overall but very important. In this post, I try to examine the importance of STs and where GT stands and outlook.
I often cringe when people say ST are good or bad because STs are so diverse. But then I go off and say it too. For the purposes of breaking them down, I put them in four different phases.
Phase 1: Returns of Kickoffs and punts.
Phase 2: GT Kickoffs and punts.
Phase 3: GT Field goals and extra points
Phase 4: Opponent field goals and extra points
The pie chart below shows that about 20% of all the plays we ran last year were ST. Compare that to about 40% for O or D.
It would seem that we would talk and focus more on ST; especially when you consider that the net yardage from a ST play and points per play is a lot higher for ST plays than O plays (or D plays). The average O play for GT in 2013 was 6.1 yards and our D gave up 5.5 yards per play on average. But kickoff returns (not including touchbacks) were 22 yards and punt returns were an average of 8.9 yards. Punts and kickoffs average 44 and 63 yards, respectively. Also, field goals put 3 points on the board and extra points (somewhat automatic) put one on the board. So on a per play basis, ST plays are more impactful than an average O or D play; and the pie chart shows there are half as many ST plays overall as O or D plays.
Since ST are so important (to me at least), I have followed the ST stats for the last few years (on Jim’s GTSports site). As a GT fan who suffered through the ST debacle of a year in 2010 and looking at ACC play, I know we have gotten better. In 2010 we stunk. Remember the Air Force Bowl Game where AF’s best play was to punt the ball to us and recover the fumble? Don’t tell me that ST can’t determine the game outcome. I think we have gotten better because of several interrelated things, largely where CPJ has changed his attitude:
• Putting the best players on the ST. This is done within reason, since you never put your starting QB on ST. But we are putting more starters on ST than early in the CPJ days.
• A ST coach to focus efforts, strategy and motivate. CPJ resisted and said this wasn’t needed and then changed.
• Better depth of talent on the team
• Recruiting emphasis of kickers – Butker and others on scholarship. How can there be an argument over whether or not key ST players are worthy of scholarship positions?
I have come around to the idea that the best way to measure our ST performance was to rank our performance against other ACC teams for only ACC games. That way the teams we play against and other ACC teams play against are more or less the same each year. I use CFB stats. { http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/conference/821/index.html } Then last year I heard about Football Outsiders and their FEI ratings – not only for O and D but also ST. { http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feist2013 }
So what I’ll do is break down the phases of ST using ACC only stats and then Football Outsiders data if the data is available.
Phase 1: Returns of Kickoffs and punts.
KO Returns: ACC 7th at 21.5 yards per return.
ACC 12th at opponent Kick Offs yielding 62.5 yards.
Football Outsiders KO Return Efficiency – 53rd in country.
Our Kickoff return game was weak. We had poor starting position since we allowed 24% touchbacks (6th fewest in ACC). Then when we did return the ball, it wasn’t that good.
Punt returns: ACC 6th at 11.2 yard per return.
Football Outsiders punt return efficiency – 18th in country.
Against all opponents, we returned the second fewest (19) of any ACC team. The rate of ACC punt returns was only 28%; we tied for 3rd lowest rate in the ACC. VT returned 52%. I think we were more conservative given the horrors of years past.
Outlook: Improved as Golden is back and Qua Searcy (Fr) who has been doing well on returns. We really need to be less conservative/effective on returns so that that we get better starting position.
Phase 2: GT Kickoffs and punts.
Kickoffs: ACC 3rd at 62.7 yards.
Touchbacks: ACC 5th at 40%.
Opponent KO Returns: ACC 11th at 23 yards.
Football Outsiders KO Efficiency – 59th in country.
Looking at game splits against ranked teams, we had fewer touchbacks against ranked teams - better teams return more kicks even if in the end zone. Butker got better as the year went on, with the exception of the Clemson game where he was only 1 for 5. That could have been Clemson being aggressive and challenging our return coverage.
Our KO return coverage wasn’t that good either at 11th for the ACC. Need to improve there. The best way is to kick it out of the end zone.
Punts: ACC 3rd at 44.0 yards per punt.
ACC 11th at 12.0 yards per opponent punt return.
Football Outsiders Opponent Punt Return Efficiency – 18th in country.
Poole did best under CPJ in average yards. Overall as shown by Football Outsiders, the combination of punt distance and punt return distance was pretty good (18th). Rodwell punted in 2012 and was redshirted in 2013. In the 5 games he played in 2012, he averaged 40 yards, just like Poole did in the other games.
2013 had the most yards given up on the returns since 2010. Sort of like KO return coverage where there can be an improvement. The stats were somewhat skewed by Syracuse and Duke games which were the only teams to get over 20 yards on any punt return. Otherwise the rest of year was pretty good on coverage.
Outlook: Rodwell is going to have to step up from his 2012 average, but there are indications he has done that with very high (long hang time) punts. We also have Chau and Hinojosa as possibilities too so we shouldn’t see too much of a drop off in punting and hopefully see an improvement in punt coverage.
Phase 3: GT Field goals and extra points.
Field Goals: ACC 13th at 66.7% (4 of 6).
Football Outsiders Field Goal Efficiency – 63rd in country.
Butker was 4 of 6 in the ACC. Most ACC teams attempted more than 13 in ACC play so we don’t’ try much. Butker missed two in first ACC game against Duke then made next 4 for ACC play. In Duke game, he made 49 yd, missed 40 yd and had one blocked (low as I recall). The low point was the one he missed - a longish one (49 yards) that would have won the UGAg game.
Extra points: ACC 8th at 97% (33 of 34). (We didn’t try any 2 point conversions.)
Butker missed one against Miami. For the year he was 53 of 54 in all game, so no problem here. I don’t remember the problem with the one he missed; I think it was pushed to the side.
Outlook: Improved as Butker should get better. He started the year kicking low and corrected that. Also, we have two long snappers who are very important, Tobin (rJr) and Stroebel (So) plus Casey Wilson walked on. How many times have you noticed the long snappers? Only when the long snapper screws up are they noticed; and then it can be spectacular and a game changer.
As a side note, I think we should go for 2 on most every TD except at the end of the game where you may play for a tie. If anyone has a reliable offense for getting 3 yards, we do. We should make it 70% of the time; that’s 1.4 points versus only 1 (or .97 based on last year’s ACC stats).
Phase 4: Opponent field goals and extra points.
Opponent Field Goals: ACC 5th best D at 75% (6 of 8)
Football Outsiders Opponent Field Goal Efficiency – 32nd in country
For all games, opponents kicked only 10 of 17 FG on us; that was the 9th best defensive % in the country.
Extra points are a given; for the entire year opponents kicked 35 of 36 against us.
Outlook: No idea as I don’t know how much was D line rush and how much was luck in 2013.
Overall: We weren’t nearly as good as I thought we would be. Punting and kick coverage are my biggest concerns going into this year. We need to be better this year since this is such an important part of the game for field position and scoring FGs. I think we’ll be better overall with Golden back and Butker being more experienced. Plus we have more athleticism in the newly available players – like Qua Searcy.
By my arithmetic averaging of the ACC stats we were 7.8th. We have bounced around under CPJ from an ACC average of 6.3rd to 8.4th. So there is room for improvement.
Football Outsiders had GT at #22 last year for ST. That made the ST the best phase of our game – compared to O (38th) and D (#51st). The arithmetic average of the FO rankings was 41st. I think the reason we were 22nd for ST is that out of the 6 metrics FO uses, we didn’t really suck at any one; the lowest was 63rd for FG efficiency (and we don’t kick many FGs). So we were consistently above average and other teams probably had big problem areas.
I often cringe when people say ST are good or bad because STs are so diverse. But then I go off and say it too. For the purposes of breaking them down, I put them in four different phases.
Phase 1: Returns of Kickoffs and punts.
Phase 2: GT Kickoffs and punts.
Phase 3: GT Field goals and extra points
Phase 4: Opponent field goals and extra points
The pie chart below shows that about 20% of all the plays we ran last year were ST. Compare that to about 40% for O or D.
It would seem that we would talk and focus more on ST; especially when you consider that the net yardage from a ST play and points per play is a lot higher for ST plays than O plays (or D plays). The average O play for GT in 2013 was 6.1 yards and our D gave up 5.5 yards per play on average. But kickoff returns (not including touchbacks) were 22 yards and punt returns were an average of 8.9 yards. Punts and kickoffs average 44 and 63 yards, respectively. Also, field goals put 3 points on the board and extra points (somewhat automatic) put one on the board. So on a per play basis, ST plays are more impactful than an average O or D play; and the pie chart shows there are half as many ST plays overall as O or D plays.
Since ST are so important (to me at least), I have followed the ST stats for the last few years (on Jim’s GTSports site). As a GT fan who suffered through the ST debacle of a year in 2010 and looking at ACC play, I know we have gotten better. In 2010 we stunk. Remember the Air Force Bowl Game where AF’s best play was to punt the ball to us and recover the fumble? Don’t tell me that ST can’t determine the game outcome. I think we have gotten better because of several interrelated things, largely where CPJ has changed his attitude:
• Putting the best players on the ST. This is done within reason, since you never put your starting QB on ST. But we are putting more starters on ST than early in the CPJ days.
• A ST coach to focus efforts, strategy and motivate. CPJ resisted and said this wasn’t needed and then changed.
• Better depth of talent on the team
• Recruiting emphasis of kickers – Butker and others on scholarship. How can there be an argument over whether or not key ST players are worthy of scholarship positions?
I have come around to the idea that the best way to measure our ST performance was to rank our performance against other ACC teams for only ACC games. That way the teams we play against and other ACC teams play against are more or less the same each year. I use CFB stats. { http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/conference/821/index.html } Then last year I heard about Football Outsiders and their FEI ratings – not only for O and D but also ST. { http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feist2013 }
So what I’ll do is break down the phases of ST using ACC only stats and then Football Outsiders data if the data is available.
Phase 1: Returns of Kickoffs and punts.
KO Returns: ACC 7th at 21.5 yards per return.
ACC 12th at opponent Kick Offs yielding 62.5 yards.
Football Outsiders KO Return Efficiency – 53rd in country.
Our Kickoff return game was weak. We had poor starting position since we allowed 24% touchbacks (6th fewest in ACC). Then when we did return the ball, it wasn’t that good.
Punt returns: ACC 6th at 11.2 yard per return.
Football Outsiders punt return efficiency – 18th in country.
Against all opponents, we returned the second fewest (19) of any ACC team. The rate of ACC punt returns was only 28%; we tied for 3rd lowest rate in the ACC. VT returned 52%. I think we were more conservative given the horrors of years past.
Outlook: Improved as Golden is back and Qua Searcy (Fr) who has been doing well on returns. We really need to be less conservative/effective on returns so that that we get better starting position.
Phase 2: GT Kickoffs and punts.
Kickoffs: ACC 3rd at 62.7 yards.
Touchbacks: ACC 5th at 40%.
Opponent KO Returns: ACC 11th at 23 yards.
Football Outsiders KO Efficiency – 59th in country.
Looking at game splits against ranked teams, we had fewer touchbacks against ranked teams - better teams return more kicks even if in the end zone. Butker got better as the year went on, with the exception of the Clemson game where he was only 1 for 5. That could have been Clemson being aggressive and challenging our return coverage.
Our KO return coverage wasn’t that good either at 11th for the ACC. Need to improve there. The best way is to kick it out of the end zone.
Punts: ACC 3rd at 44.0 yards per punt.
ACC 11th at 12.0 yards per opponent punt return.
Football Outsiders Opponent Punt Return Efficiency – 18th in country.
Poole did best under CPJ in average yards. Overall as shown by Football Outsiders, the combination of punt distance and punt return distance was pretty good (18th). Rodwell punted in 2012 and was redshirted in 2013. In the 5 games he played in 2012, he averaged 40 yards, just like Poole did in the other games.
2013 had the most yards given up on the returns since 2010. Sort of like KO return coverage where there can be an improvement. The stats were somewhat skewed by Syracuse and Duke games which were the only teams to get over 20 yards on any punt return. Otherwise the rest of year was pretty good on coverage.
Outlook: Rodwell is going to have to step up from his 2012 average, but there are indications he has done that with very high (long hang time) punts. We also have Chau and Hinojosa as possibilities too so we shouldn’t see too much of a drop off in punting and hopefully see an improvement in punt coverage.
Phase 3: GT Field goals and extra points.
Field Goals: ACC 13th at 66.7% (4 of 6).
Football Outsiders Field Goal Efficiency – 63rd in country.
Butker was 4 of 6 in the ACC. Most ACC teams attempted more than 13 in ACC play so we don’t’ try much. Butker missed two in first ACC game against Duke then made next 4 for ACC play. In Duke game, he made 49 yd, missed 40 yd and had one blocked (low as I recall). The low point was the one he missed - a longish one (49 yards) that would have won the UGAg game.
Extra points: ACC 8th at 97% (33 of 34). (We didn’t try any 2 point conversions.)
Butker missed one against Miami. For the year he was 53 of 54 in all game, so no problem here. I don’t remember the problem with the one he missed; I think it was pushed to the side.
Outlook: Improved as Butker should get better. He started the year kicking low and corrected that. Also, we have two long snappers who are very important, Tobin (rJr) and Stroebel (So) plus Casey Wilson walked on. How many times have you noticed the long snappers? Only when the long snapper screws up are they noticed; and then it can be spectacular and a game changer.
As a side note, I think we should go for 2 on most every TD except at the end of the game where you may play for a tie. If anyone has a reliable offense for getting 3 yards, we do. We should make it 70% of the time; that’s 1.4 points versus only 1 (or .97 based on last year’s ACC stats).
Phase 4: Opponent field goals and extra points.
Opponent Field Goals: ACC 5th best D at 75% (6 of 8)
Football Outsiders Opponent Field Goal Efficiency – 32nd in country
For all games, opponents kicked only 10 of 17 FG on us; that was the 9th best defensive % in the country.
Extra points are a given; for the entire year opponents kicked 35 of 36 against us.
Outlook: No idea as I don’t know how much was D line rush and how much was luck in 2013.
Overall: We weren’t nearly as good as I thought we would be. Punting and kick coverage are my biggest concerns going into this year. We need to be better this year since this is such an important part of the game for field position and scoring FGs. I think we’ll be better overall with Golden back and Butker being more experienced. Plus we have more athleticism in the newly available players – like Qua Searcy.
By my arithmetic averaging of the ACC stats we were 7.8th. We have bounced around under CPJ from an ACC average of 6.3rd to 8.4th. So there is room for improvement.
Football Outsiders had GT at #22 last year for ST. That made the ST the best phase of our game – compared to O (38th) and D (#51st). The arithmetic average of the FO rankings was 41st. I think the reason we were 22nd for ST is that out of the 6 metrics FO uses, we didn’t really suck at any one; the lowest was 63rd for FG efficiency (and we don’t kick many FGs). So we were consistently above average and other teams probably had big problem areas.
We should be as good or better than last year; and last year the ST was probably the strongest aspect of our game. Just not as strong as I felt.
