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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 113227" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>This is so true. The futures and stock markets are efficient markets in that there is sufficient liquidity to generate a composite price which factors in all expectations at any one point in time.</p><p></p><p>However, the markets are far from "correct" or "accurate" at predicting anything other than money flow. Otherwise, how would our stock markets have seen over ten 50% "corrections" in the last 100 years (for stocks) when the underlying fundamentals didn't change as much over the period of the correction? Expectations create expectations that are not reality.</p><p></p><p>For sports betting, especially CFB betting, I think the upper limit of accuracy is about 76%. So many people have tried to do better, but there is no way to know how 40 kids are going to play together on a given day. Since the vigorish is about 10%, there is no way I could see to devise a system which improves on the line by 10%. If anyone knows one, keep quiet, do it and make $Ms.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 113227, member: 322"] This is so true. The futures and stock markets are efficient markets in that there is sufficient liquidity to generate a composite price which factors in all expectations at any one point in time. However, the markets are far from "correct" or "accurate" at predicting anything other than money flow. Otherwise, how would our stock markets have seen over ten 50% "corrections" in the last 100 years (for stocks) when the underlying fundamentals didn't change as much over the period of the correction? Expectations create expectations that are not reality. For sports betting, especially CFB betting, I think the upper limit of accuracy is about 76%. So many people have tried to do better, but there is no way to know how 40 kids are going to play together on a given day. Since the vigorish is about 10%, there is no way I could see to devise a system which improves on the line by 10%. If anyone knows one, keep quiet, do it and make $Ms. [/QUOTE]
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