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<blockquote data-quote="IEEEWreck" data-source="post: 113199" data-attributes="member: 617"><p>I believe it's efficient, at least in the weak efficient market sense (not unique to betting, I believe the wem theorem.) Just because expectations don't correspond to reality doesn't, however, indicate opportunities for arbitrage. Arbitrage (at least from historical information) is structurally precluded by sufficient liquidity in the market. </p><p></p><p>But the point I'm making is that efficient markets are not correct markets, and a whole lot of people think they are. All I'm saying is that efficient market equilibria demonstrate expectations, not reality. Expectations can be biased without creating arbitrage opportunities. So pointing to a market to validate expectations is circular, that's all.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="IEEEWreck, post: 113199, member: 617"] I believe it's efficient, at least in the weak efficient market sense (not unique to betting, I believe the wem theorem.) Just because expectations don't correspond to reality doesn't, however, indicate opportunities for arbitrage. Arbitrage (at least from historical information) is structurally precluded by sufficient liquidity in the market. But the point I'm making is that efficient markets are not correct markets, and a whole lot of people think they are. All I'm saying is that efficient market equilibria demonstrate expectations, not reality. Expectations can be biased without creating arbitrage opportunities. So pointing to a market to validate expectations is circular, that's all. [/QUOTE]
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