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SEC Dominance?
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<blockquote data-quote="IEEEWreck" data-source="post: 112671" data-attributes="member: 617"><p>1. You fundamentally misunderstand the nature of betting markets. The house seeks to take zero net position. Despite all the semi-mystical horse**** being passed around about the wisdom of crowds, cfb is very close to a structurally even information market. </p><p></p><p>Think about this: who do you think bets more money if they think their team will win: Tech and Stanford grads or Bama fans and nad lickers?</p><p></p><p>2. Sagarin in football is not unbiased. It needs a bayesean network of preseason rankings to work. In basketball the rankings become unbiased as the graph is filled out by games. In football it stops using the bn, but significant error gets introduced by sparse regions where conferences like the SEC play very few ooc games. Tellingly, the elo chess version of Sagarin doesnt rank the SEC nearly as highly. </p><p></p><p>Sagarin is just a mathematical formalization of "quality losses" without enough comparison games to work with.</p><p></p><p>3. Isn't the narrative that the whole SEC is better than the best of anyone else? I guess that's just going to be silently conceded to be crap. </p><p></p><p>Fun enough, your own arguments above work against your claim. The Sagarin ratings for intraSEC play where there is data present far less variation than other conferences. So statistically speaking, 4-1 works out to a (poisson for chained a> b) 98.378 confidence that those acc teams are better than those sec teams. We could do a cdf calculation to see the chance that the acc teams are at least as better as the top SEC teams. </p><p></p><p>But we'd be making wild guesses and our margin of error would show it. You're falling back into the only narrative that lacks compelling evidence to disprove it, only by virtue of the fact that the top of the SEC avoids power 5 ooc games like the plague. </p><p></p><p>And, even then the most recent data indicates the top of the acc (fsu) is better than the top of the SEC (bama). </p><p></p><p>So keep talking about all the reasons in the world that the record doesn't matter. Hell, the SEC can go be the most dominant conference in the modern geological epoch. They just can't claim to be the conference that wins the most.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="IEEEWreck, post: 112671, member: 617"] 1. You fundamentally misunderstand the nature of betting markets. The house seeks to take zero net position. Despite all the semi-mystical horse**** being passed around about the wisdom of crowds, cfb is very close to a structurally even information market. Think about this: who do you think bets more money if they think their team will win: Tech and Stanford grads or Bama fans and nad lickers? 2. Sagarin in football is not unbiased. It needs a bayesean network of preseason rankings to work. In basketball the rankings become unbiased as the graph is filled out by games. In football it stops using the bn, but significant error gets introduced by sparse regions where conferences like the SEC play very few ooc games. Tellingly, the elo chess version of Sagarin doesnt rank the SEC nearly as highly. Sagarin is just a mathematical formalization of "quality losses" without enough comparison games to work with. 3. Isn't the narrative that the whole SEC is better than the best of anyone else? I guess that's just going to be silently conceded to be crap. Fun enough, your own arguments above work against your claim. The Sagarin ratings for intraSEC play where there is data present far less variation than other conferences. So statistically speaking, 4-1 works out to a (poisson for chained a> b) 98.378 confidence that those acc teams are better than those sec teams. We could do a cdf calculation to see the chance that the acc teams are at least as better as the top SEC teams. But we'd be making wild guesses and our margin of error would show it. You're falling back into the only narrative that lacks compelling evidence to disprove it, only by virtue of the fact that the top of the SEC avoids power 5 ooc games like the plague. And, even then the most recent data indicates the top of the acc (fsu) is better than the top of the SEC (bama). So keep talking about all the reasons in the world that the record doesn't matter. Hell, the SEC can go be the most dominant conference in the modern geological epoch. They just can't claim to be the conference that wins the most. [/QUOTE]
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