Season to date: overperformance vs underperformance

[slugboy]

We've talked about how the team is doing post-Collins vs when he coached this year. So, I did something kind of easy: I went to USA Today and grabbed the point spreads. It's an easy way to say where we beat expectations vs where we fell short. A positive difference in the last column is where we beat the spread. A negative score is where we fell short.

Opponent	Their Score	Our Score	Point Spread	Margin	Difference
Clemson	41​	10​	23.5​	31​	-7.5​
WCU	17​	35​	-24.5​	-18​	-6.5​
Ole Miss	42​	0​	16.5​	42​	-25.5​
UCF	27​	10​	19.5​	17​	2.5​
Pitt	21​	26​	21.5​	-5​	26.5​
Duke	20​	23​	3.5​	-3​	6.5​
UVA	16​	9​	-1.5​	7​	-8.5​
FSU	41​	16​	24​	25​	-1​
VT	27​	28​	3.5​	-1​	4.5​

I averaged the margins for Collins coaching vs Key coaching. It's about a 16-point swing in expectations vs the point spreads

 

[00Burdell]

The Ole Miss line was nonsense from the start and so was the Pitt line.

 

[lv20gt]

Betting lines? Seriously?

 

[slugboy]

If you'd like it from SP+, here you go. We overperformed by about a touchdown against UCF (but I think that was mostly UCF burning clock in the second half--that game and Ole Miss could have gone much worse). Generally, we underperformed under Collins by a touchdown or more. UVA and FSU were both bad games, but we did better than expected against Pitt, Duke, and UVA. As bad a rout as FSU was, UVA may have been a worse game--it's a game we should have won but lost by a TD.

A negative margin means "losing". At Clemson, SP+ expected us to lose by about 24-25 and we lost by 31. Against VT, we were projected to lose by 5.5 and we won by 1.

Game	Actual Score	Actual margin	SP+ Projected Margin	Difference
Clem	L41-10	-31	-24.5	-6.5
WCU	W35-17	18	21.9	-3.9
Ole Miss	L42-0	-42	-27.5	-14.5
UCF	L27-10	-17	-22.4	5.4
Pitt	W26-21	5	-23.3	28.3
Duke	W23-20	3	-3.6	6.6
UVA	L16-9	-7	1.7	-8.7
FSU	L41-16	-25	-17.3	-7.7
VT	W28-27	1	-5.5	6.5

 

[RonJohn]

If you'd like it from SP+, here you go. We overperformed by about a touchdown against UCF (but I think that was mostly UCF burning clock in the second half--that game and Ole Miss could have gone much worse). Generally, we underperformed under Collins by a touchdown or more. UVA and FSU were both bad games, but we did better than expected against Pitt, Duke, and UVA. As bad a rout as FSU was, UVA may have been a worse game--it's a game we should have won but lost by a TD.



View attachment 13474

A negative margin means "losing". At Clemson, SP+ expected us to lose by about 24-25 and we lost by 31. Against VT, we were projected to lose by 5.5 and we won by 1.

Game	Actual Score	Actual margin	SP+ Projected Margin	Difference
Clem	L41-10	-31	-24.5	-6.5
WCU	W35-17	18	21.9	-3.9
Ole Miss	L42-0	-42	-27.5	-14.5
UCF	L27-10	-17	-22.4	5.4
Pitt	W26-21	5	-23.3	28.3
Duke	W23-20	3	-3.6	6.6
UVA	L16-9	-7	1.7	-8.7
FSU	L41-16	-25	-17.3	-7.7
VT	W28-27	1	-5.5	6.5

It looks identical to me. The scale is off by a little, but the trend is exactly the same. It is obvious that the coaching change made a large difference based on the stats you are providing. It was already obvious to me using the eye test.

 

[kittysniper101]

Betting lines? Seriously?

What’s wrong with betting lines? In general it’s incredibly difficult to pick better than them to the point that a 55% win rate for an advanced ranking system is the gold standard.

 

[lv20gt]

What’s wrong with betting lines? In general it’s incredibly difficult to pick better than them to the point that a 55% win rate for an advanced ranking system is the gold standard.

Their purpose is entirely different what this topic is trying to use them for.

 

[slugboy]

Their purpose is entirely different what this topic is trying to use them for.

Point spreads are fairly well correlated with margin of victory, and they’re effectively forecasting that—at least the expectations of margin of victory. Markets aren’t perfect, but they do a fairly good job of forecasting in many situations.

 

[Billygoat91]

I think that despite CGC's firing and everything else this year, we have been about as expected. The ACC just happens to be fairly weak this year compared to expectations so we look better