Scheduling

smathis30

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forensicbuzz said:
By your standard, Wisconsin should have been chosen over Alabama.

Wisconsin: 12-1, SOS: 50, only loss to #5 team by less than 1 score, lost last game played (in conference championship)
Alabama: 11-1, SOS: 58 only loss to #8 team by over 2 scores, lost last game played (didn't even win their own division, didn't play in conference championship)

Not even close.
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Strength of record for Alabama is higher. Also advanced stats almost unanimously favor Alabama.
 
RonJohn

RonJohn

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dressedcheeseside said:
Sagarin has Wis (50) with a stronger SoS than Bama (56).

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2017/team/
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ESPN says that SOR is based on a percentage chance that an average top 25 team would have your record or better with your schedule. That means that there has to be some calculation based on strength of schedule? and maybe opponents strength of schedule? and some way to determine what an average top 25 team would be able to do? Lots of variables that are not explained. Entirely possible that it is completely made up. Very likely that it includes some factors of variables that don't really have anything to do with a better record or a better schedule.

However, it must be the most important thing in the world because it picks Alabama over OSU.
 
jeffgt14

jeffgt14

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Bama is 3-1 against Power 5 teams with a winning record with a +4.25 point differential. OSU is 4-2 with a +2.83 point differential. Wisconson is 3-1 with a +10.25 point differential. Whatever logic being applied for Bama is not getting applied to Wisconsin.
 
dressedcheeseside

dressedcheeseside

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RonJohn said:
ESPN says that SOR is based on a percentage chance that an average top 25 team would have your record or better with your schedule. That means that there has to be some calculation based on strength of schedule? and maybe opponents strength of schedule? and some way to determine what an average top 25 team would be able to do? Lots of variables that are not explained. Entirely possible that it is completely made up. Very likely that it includes some factors of variables that don't really have anything to do with a better record or a better schedule.

However, it must be the most important thing in the world because it picks Alabama over OSU.
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It’s called the eyeball test. Ultra objective.
 

smathis30

Ramblin' Wreck
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732
jeffgt14 said:
Bama is 3-1 against Power 5 teams with a winning record with a +4.25 point differential. OSU is 4-2 with a +2.83 point differential. Wisconson is 3-1 with a +10.25 point differential. Whatever logic being applied for Bama is not getting applied to Wisconsin.
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Alabama is 5-1 against p5 with a winning record. Wisconsin is 3-1. Ohio state is 4-2. If anything it makes it more clear
 

smathis30

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
732
RonJohn said:
ESPN says that SOR is based on a percentage chance that an average top 25 team would have your record or better with your schedule. That means that there has to be some calculation based on strength of schedule? and maybe opponents strength of schedule? and some way to determine what an average top 25 team would be able to do? Lots of variables that are not explained. Entirely possible that it is completely made up. Very likely that it includes some factors of variables that don't really have anything to do with a better record or a better schedule.

However, it must be the most important thing in the world because it picks Alabama over OSU.
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its important because teams like south Florida who go 9-2 but not beat a single bowl elgible team get brought back to earth. Football doesn't have enough games to really do transsitive property like basketball can, so comparing schedules and results like that is a far better metric. Strength of schedule is useful, but doesn't tell the whole picture (e.g. results)
 
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