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Remaining Season Prediction Thread
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<blockquote data-quote="Atomic Jacket" data-source="post: 93053" data-attributes="member: 1008"><p>UGA Sagarin Predictor = 92.59</p><p>GT Sagarin Predictor = 76.43</p><p>Home Advantage = 3.52</p><p>Estimated point spread = 92.59+3.52-76.43 = 19.68</p><p></p><p>Ref. <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/" target="_blank">http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/</a></p><p></p><p>From a Phil Steele article, when the spread is between 17.5 and 24 points, the underdog wins 6.76% of the time. When the spread is between 14.5 and 17 points, the underdog wins 13.16% of the time. Setting the %chance at the midpoint of the point spread range, and interpolating, in a 19.68 point spread, the underdog would win about 8% of the time.</p><p></p><p>Ref. <a href="http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html" target="_blank">http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Atomic Jacket, post: 93053, member: 1008"] UGA Sagarin Predictor = 92.59 GT Sagarin Predictor = 76.43 Home Advantage = 3.52 Estimated point spread = 92.59+3.52-76.43 = 19.68 Ref. [url]http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/[/url] From a Phil Steele article, when the spread is between 17.5 and 24 points, the underdog wins 6.76% of the time. When the spread is between 14.5 and 17 points, the underdog wins 13.16% of the time. Setting the %chance at the midpoint of the point spread range, and interpolating, in a 19.68 point spread, the underdog would win about 8% of the time. Ref. [url]http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html[/url] [/QUOTE]
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