Red Shirt vs Playing as True Freshman

[dressedcheeseside]

Laskey was a beast and ran like a bull in a china shop in the mutt game. The only thing "underwhelming" around here are posts attempting to minimize his accomplishments.

 

[tech_wreck47]

Laskey was a beast and ran like a bull in a china shop in the mutt game. The only thing "underwhelming" around here are posts attempting to minimize his accomplishments.

I don't think people are trying to minimize his accomplishments, they are just stating their opinion that while he was good, there was nothing special besides the fact he ran hard. He's not very fast and he doesn't have any real moves, so it's easy to see where people can see our new b backs that have came in could turn out to be better because they are more athletic. I believe almost everyone on this site loved having laskey as our b back last year and are very proud, and excited for him.

 

[deeeznutz]

Laskey was a beast and ran like a bull in a china shop in the mutt game. The only thing "underwhelming" around here are posts attempting to minimize his accomplishments.

Miami game too...he was running angry that day!

 

[lv20gt]

Laskey was a beast and ran like a bull in a china shop in the mutt game. The only thing "underwhelming" around here are posts attempting to minimize his accomplishments.

So in response to saying he was underwhelming as the number 1 guy, you bring up a game in which he was the back up?

Laskey was good when he was in the role that suit him, a back up who played meaningful snaps. When he was thrust into the sole starter role, he didn't produce, 85 ypg on 4.95 ypc, to the level that he should given the level of competition that we were going up against, and the talent on the OL that we had. Compare thos enumbers to Dwyer, Allen, or Days when they were starters at BBack and it's plain to see. That's not minimizing his accomplishments. It's just not being blinded by sentiment.

 

[InsideLB]

Waller is a guy I wouldnt mind having another year. 'Course he mighta declared.

With 27 tr fr coming in thats almost 1 in 3 scholly players that's a tr fr. Gonna have to play some...even if "just" on STs. Also helps balance the classes so u dont lose a ton of guys at one position in 1 year. So some practical considerations apply.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

So in response to saying he was underwhelming as the number 1 guy, you bring up a game in which he was the back up?

Laskey was good when he was in the role that suit him, a back up who played meaningful snaps. When he was thrust into the sole starter role, he didn't produce, 85 ypg on 4.95 ypc, to the level that he should given the level of competition that we were going up against, and the talent on the OL that we had. Compare thos enumbers to Dwyer, Allen, or Days when they were starters at BBack and it's plain to see. That's not minimizing his accomplishments. It's just not being blinded by sentiment.

The whole point of this thread is the value of redshirting vs playing as a freshman. Someone brought up he'd love to have Zach back for another year but he played sparingly as a true freshman and had used up his eligibility. Your productivity comparisons have little value to this discussion.

Days did not play as a true frosh so comparing him to Zach in this situation is pointless. Comparing to Dwyer is valid but nobody is saying Zach is better than Dwyer. Maybe your point is he'd be no better than the guys we have coming on board this year. I highly doubt that and there's no way to know, but I guess you're entitled to your opinion so have at it. Just don't expect no backlash when you run a fan favorite down.

 

[lv20gt]

The whole point of this thread is the value of redshirting vs playing as a freshman. Someone brought up he'd love to have Zach back for another year but he played sparingly as a true freshman and had used up his eligibility. Your productivity comparisons have little value to this discussion.

And the whole point of the post I quoted was to say it was unlikely that a freshman would "carry" us like Laskey would. His productivity as a starter goes directly against that notion, and the comparisons show that there is really no reason to believe that a freshman, should he win the job, would struggle to replicate that level of production. The other 3? Sure. 85 ypg on 4.95 ypc? no. If you think that's running down a player, that's on you.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

And the whole point of the post I quoted was to say it was unlikely that a freshman would "carry" us like Laskey would. His productivity as a starter goes directly against that notion, and the comparisons show that there is really no reason to believe that a freshman, should he win the job, would struggle to replicate that level of production. The other 3? Sure. 85 ypg on 4.95 ypc? no. If you think that's running down a player, that's on you.

Why wouldn't Laskey be even better this year after another offseason of weight and strength training? Laskey also was extremely dependable as he never lost yards and virtually never lost the ball. He was also a decent blocker and a sure handed receiver. He was also a good teammate who didn't pout when he came back from injury and had to play second fiddle to Synjyn. In fact, he was probably Synjyn's biggest fan. I don't call that "underwhelming" by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[Techster]

Still trying to figure out what evidence posters have claiming that a true freshmen (Marcus Marshall) will have a greater impact this season as opposed to a 5th year Zach Laskey. Are that many people privy to practices and scrimmages? Where do I sign up to get on that list for that kind of access?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Still trying to figure out what evidence .......

Well, I have no evidence about preferences and supposition if different people had played at different time.

But for the original link, it's pretty clear (to me) that between 6 and 11 Fr are going to play. That's based upon the stats Ken provided for the first seven years under CPJ where the number of Fr who had their RS burned was between 24% and 49%. It doesn't seem to vary with class size either, when we've had classes of 21 or 22 the ratio has varied between 29% and 49%.

Further, looking at the list of burned Fr RSs, I didn't see many / any who were only ST (outside of specialty like Butker) but there may have been a few. We don't burn RS for the hell of it (IMHO).

This is really simple: if the player can help the team that year, he plays. But if he can't because there are better players on the field he doesn't play.

Finally, the class size is going to work itself out just fine IMHO. In 8 classes, CPJ has averaged 20 players a class. So over 5 years we get about 100 players; over four years we get 80 so that's only 5 less than the scholarship limit at the beginning of the season. I think (but haven't bothered to verify) that we are getting more players leaving for playing time. That would make sense if you believe that we are getting better athletes now than 4 years ago.

Here are the numbers from Ken's article:
Year; Fr Play; Class size; % Fr
2008 6 21 29%
2009 6 21 29%
2010 6 18 33%
2011 10 22 45%
2012 4 17 24%
2013 4 14 29%
2014 9 21 43%
2015 ? 25
2015 6 Low 24%
2015 11 High 45%

 

[iceeater1969]

After looking at the list of freshman on from the rumble seat site, I think it will only be 10 (40%) since Q and Cottrell are injured. I think this is a very good class so it's not a reach.

I know coach will play to win each game.
But he also knows if he can get true freshman in for a few plays against ND, FSU, etc that consistently attracting the same level or even better talent is more likely. Heck we play in Ireland next year! Beat 4 of big 6 and win the rest with a few by runaway spells sucess in recruiting.

 

[AE 87]

Come on man. We're talking 35 ypg amd 1 ypc difference here, almost instantly. The last two games with Laskey as a starter (Duke and UNC) he got 73 ypg on 15 carries (4.87 per). The next two games (Pitt and UVA) saw Days put up 128.5 ypg on 23 carries (5.59 per). That's a difference of 55.5 yards a game difference and .72 ypc. And before someone points out that I arbitrarily left out the Miami game, Laskey's only real standout performance in the first 7, the numbers over the last 3 games/first 3 games are 93 ypg on 4.73 ypc for laskey to 138 ypg on 6.37 ypc for Days. Difference of 45 ypg on 1.64 ypc difference. Even post return, Laskey's numbers, not including Clemson for his advantage, he averaged 5.17 ypc from the back up role to Days' 5.93 ypc from the #1 spot.

The difference in production is simply too large to explain away with improvement in blocking or reads, especially when the improvement was so drastic immediately. It's silly to be talking about a freshman's ability to carry the team, and be talking about Laskey and not Days.

Sorry, I didn't mean to distract from the conversation about red shirting, but others have responded on that point. Also, I wanted to clarify that my post was not intended to say that Laskey was the better b-back overall. It was simply to say that I thought your look at the stats was too simplistic. You are of course free to disagree. Fwiw, I'm not worried about Marcus coming in and playing significant minutes, if not carrying the load for us. I think we'll be fine there and may even be better.

Still, I think that if the difference between Synjyn and Zach was as stark as you make it, then Synjyn would've been starting from day 1. Your simplistic look at the rushing data also doesn't consider the other factors of the non-ball-carrying responsibilities. Zach was the starter at the beginning of the year for a reason.

Another look at the rushing data may be helpful. Over our last 3 games, Zach and Synjyn both played; Synjyn getting 56 carries for 332 yds and Zach 47 for 243. That's a difference between 5.93 yds/carry and 5.17 yds/carry. However, if you take away Synjyn's 69 yd TD run vs Miss St, he averaged 4.78 yds/carry over the other 55 carries. I say that because I think it's important that you understand the statistics and their sensitivity before you tell someone else to "Come on man."

 

[lv20gt]

Still, I think that if the difference between Synjyn and Zach was as stark as you make it, then Synjyn would've been starting from day 1. Your simplistic look at the rushing data also doesn't consider the other factors of the non-ball-carrying responsibilities. Zach was the starter at the beginning of the year for a reason.

Another look at the rushing data may be helpful. Over our last 3 games, Zach and Synjyn both played; Synjyn getting 56 carries for 332 yds and Zach 47 for 243. That's a difference between 5.93 yds/carry and 5.17 yds/carry. However, if you take away Synjyn's 69 yd TD run vs Miss St, he averaged 4.78 yds/carry over the other 55 carries. I say that because I think it's important that you understand the statistics and their sensitivity before you tell someone else to "Come on man."

I'm sure there's a reason Laskey started and had 7.5 times more carries than Days through 7 games. It was a good reason too. It was Johnson thought Laskey was better. Coaches play the players they think are better. That reason wouldn't be any different even if Laskey actually was the better back. But, that doesn't mean they always play the better player. Of course, I know some people might think Johnson is literally god in his infallibility, but his, in fact, just a human. Like the rest of us, he's more than capable of errors in judgement. I wonder how long till someone says I'm running down our coach because I said he's just a human lol.

Anyways, if you want to argue that the reason you alluded to isn't because Johnson messed up then be my guest and try to explain it away. That being said, any reason given should somehow handle the difference in rushing attempts 120-16 in the first 7 games in favor of laskey, and somehow reconcile that in the drastic difference in production, both overall, and immediately following the change. The simple answer is that Johnson messed up in his evaluation of Days at Bback to start the year last year. The idea that the difference in production was better play by OL and QB, or even Days drastically improving, isn't consistent with the near instant improvement in production. There wasn't even a bye week to help that argument.

Also, if you can give one good reason to take away the 69 yard run, then your argument might hold water. To show the absurdity of that statement, look at Dwyer's 2008 year. 1395 yards on 200 carries. 6.975 ypc, 107.3 ypg. Let's take away his top 4 runs (roughly same % that you're taking away from Days). His "new" numbers? 196 carries, 1096 yards, 5.6 ypc. 84.3 ypg. How about 2009? 235 carries, 1395 yards, 5.94 ypc, 99.6 ypg. Take away his top 4 runs and new numbers are 1147 yards, 231 carries, 4.97 ypc, 82 ypg. Lets look at Chubb last year. 219 carries, 1547 yards. 7.1 avg. Take away his top 4 runs? 215 carries for 1262 yards, 5.87 ypc. Look at Melvin Gordon 7.5 ypc becomes 6.6 ypc. Tevin Coleman 7.5 becomes 6.45. Ezekiel Elliott 6.9 becomes 5.9. James Conner 5.9 becomes 5.2. etc etc etc. Amazing how much production of almost every back it seems drops significantly when you take away a handful of their top plays.

The truth is those handful of plays are what separates the great backs from the average backs. You can't take them away and act like it means anything. The outliers are the difference. That play happened. It wasn't a fluke. The blocking didn't part the red sea and have him go untouched 69 yards in a straight line. The blocking was very good, but Days turned a play that likely is a 15-20 yard "nice run" into a 69 yard TD by not going down when defenders got to him. Laskey has had several of those opportunities and didn't make it happen. Had he had two 50+ yard runs as a starter we wouldn't be having this discussion.

 

[AE 87]

I'm sure there's a reason Laskey started and had 7.5 times more carries than Days through 7 games. It was a good reason too. It was Johnson thought Laskey was better. Coaches play the players they think are better. That reason wouldn't be any different even if Laskey actually was the better back. But, that doesn't mean they always play the better player. Of course, I know some people might think Johnson is literally god in his infallibility, but his, in fact, just a human. Like the rest of us, he's more than capable of errors in judgement. I wonder how long till someone says I'm running down our coach because I said he's just a human lol.

Anyways, if you want to argue that the reason you alluded to isn't because Johnson messed up then be my guest and try to explain it away. That being said, any reason given should somehow handle the difference in rushing attempts 120-16 in the first 7 games in favor of laskey, and somehow reconcile that in the drastic difference in production, both overall, and immediately following the change. The simple answer is that Johnson messed up in his evaluation of Days at Bback to start the year last year. The idea that the difference in production was better play by OL and QB, or even Days drastically improving, isn't consistent with the near instant improvement in production. There wasn't even a bye week to help that argument.

Also, if you can give one good reason to take away the 69 yard run, then your argument might hold water. To show the absurdity of that statement, look at Dwyer's 2008 year. 1395 yards on 200 carries. 6.975 ypc, 107.3 ypg. Let's take away his top 4 runs (roughly same % that you're taking away from Days). His "new" numbers? 196 carries, 1096 yards, 5.6 ypc. 84.3 ypg. How about 2009? 235 carries, 1395 yards, 5.94 ypc, 99.6 ypg. Take away his top 4 runs and new numbers are 1147 yards, 231 carries, 4.97 ypc, 82 ypg. Lets look at Chubb last year. 219 carries, 1547 yards. 7.1 avg. Take away his top 4 runs? 215 carries for 1262 yards, 5.87 ypc. Look at Melvin Gordon 7.5 ypc becomes 6.6 ypc. Tevin Coleman 7.5 becomes 6.45. Ezekiel Elliott 6.9 becomes 5.9. James Conner 5.9 becomes 5.2. etc etc etc. Amazing how much production of almost every back it seems drops significantly when you take away a handful of their top plays.

The truth is those handful of plays are what separates the great backs from the average backs. You can't take them away and act like it means anything. The outliers are the difference. That play happened. It wasn't a fluke. The blocking didn't part the red sea and have him go untouched 69 yards in a straight line. The blocking was very good, but Days turned a play that likely is a 15-20 yard "nice run" into a 69 yard TD by not going down when defenders got to him. Laskey has had several of those opportunities and didn't make it happen. Had he had two 50+ yard runs as a starter we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Okay. It seems that we're talking past each other. I will try and explain my point again. I did not conclude that Zach was a better back by comparing his stats to Synjyn's removing the one play. I posted that simply to show the sensitivity of the stat in response to your assertion that blocking and decision making couldn't account for the difference. Since you mentioned Dwyer, over his last 3 games in 2009, he carried the ball 52 times for 192 yds, 3.69 ypc. In my opinion, the difference of over 1 ypc between Dwyer and the 2014 backs had to do with blocking and decision making not just the skill of the running back.

Again, my reason for posting was not to challenge your assertion that Synjyn was the better B-Back in 2014, but that the basis seemed to me too simplistic. I looked at the original assertion of being a B-Back that can carry the team in terms of being able to get the tough yards, not necessarily the best back in terms of breaking tackles' in the open field etc. So, I think that also led to us talking past each other a bit.