Recruiting or coaching

[cthenrys]

If you look at how the President of GT is compensated, NONE of the metrics are about athletics. And haven’t been. Ever.

Nor should they be...

 

[Vespidae]

So what you are saying is that we were like Notre Dame flirting with joining the ACC…

HAHAHAHA!!!

 

[InsideLB]

Coaches recruit to their system and culture.

Coaches that recruit successfully, run reasonable systems, establish an effective culture, develop kids, build a good staff, etc. are successful.

Also it depends on how committed to winning the school is. Jimbo left FSU because they wouldn't make the necessary investment. Kirby went to UGA because they would. Saban went to Bama because they would. Saban was 6-6 first year at Bama with shelves stocked. Best possible coach at top 5 coaching destination with all the support you could ask for.

So clearly it takes time. How much time is reasonable? Dunno. GT ain't a state school where every kid grows up wanting to come. So recruiting improvement will take time (see 3 blue chip DTs committed in this year's class, 4-star OL, etc.) because it takes multi-year relationships to get those kids to come to a place like GT (generally). Then you have to get those kids to come in and coach 'em up for at least a year or two typically.

Do I see stuff I think could be a problem with Collins? Yeah. And I also see a lot of recruits who are not only high level guys but they also seem to be excelling/panning out and doing so when they are pretty young. That's a good sign.

Can't and won't tell you what to do but for me it makes sense to be patient. I like Thacker. Patenaude I'm not sure about for long term. On O I see things I like and don't like. Being strong in the trenches tends to make coordinators look really good/playcalling look great. For me as long as we keep bringing in good talent and they look like they are developing and coaching seems not obviously bad (not able to fix stuff, losing lockeroom, beating self too much, etc.) I am apt to be patient. IMO at a school like GT it could really pay off.

 

[Vespidae]

Nor should they be...

In principle, I agree with you. And Saban, at Alabama, faced fierce criticism from the faculty over the size of the athletics program. That is, until Nick started donating millions from the football budget towards new facilities for his biggest critics. Now, they love the football program.

Not that it will happen at Tech, but imagine if the Jackets were making a campus refresh possible .... and then ... would the Hill be more interested?

 

[cthenrys]

In principle, I agree with you. And Saban, at Alabama, faced fierce criticism from the faculty over the size of the athletics program. That is, until Nick started donating millions from the football budget towards new facilities for his biggest critics. Now, they love the football program.

Not that it will happen at Tech, but imagine if the Jackets were making a campus refresh possible .... and then ... would the Hill be more interested?

There's no doubt it has worked at Alabama. The money they spent for Saban is the best money they could spend - it has had massive direct and indirect benefit for Bama as an institution. However there are likely less than 5 places in the country where that is a viable model, and we ain't one of them.

Hence we need to be very careful or (even better) very lucky with HC hires. My opinion is we have been neither with CGC. I could be wrong and the lights could turn on soon, but I struggle to see it.

 

[takethepoints]

I like how Wake Forest is getting all this attention and love for having “great coaching” after 7 years of the same coaching staff being anywhere from mediocre to terrible.

Wake's record for the last 7 years:
2014 3 - 9
2015 3 - 9
2016 7 - 6
2017 8 - 5
2018 7 - 6
2019 8 - 5
2020 4 - 5
and so far they are undefeated this year.

I hope Collins shows similar improvement, but I don't think he's on the same planet as Clawson as far as coaching goes. Coaching always wins out, however. Good football players want to play for good coaches and good coaches know what they need in the way of players they can get into school.

 

[JacketOff]

Wake's record for the last 7 years:
2014 3 - 9
2015 3 - 9
2016 7 - 6
2017 8 - 5
2018 7 - 6
2019 8 - 5
2020 4 - 5
and so far they are undefeated this year.

I hope Collins shows similar improvement, but I don't think he's on the same planet as Clawson as far as coaching goes. Coaching always wins out, however. Good football players want to play for good coaches and good coaches know what they need in the way of players they can get into school.

I mean, those records ranges from terrible to mediocre, don’t ya think? That’s 40-45, and even if you take out his first 2 years that’s still just 34-27 (.557) which is pretty mediocre and unremarkable. Wake has definitely used their non-conference games to beef up their records as well. Usually playing 3 gimme games and either UNC or Notre Dame as their 4 non-conference game. Since Clawson has been there Wake’s ACC record is 19-36. Take out his first 2 years it’s still just 17-22, and if you add their undefeated start from this year it’s 20-22.
What about those records isn’t mediocre or terrible? Over half of Wake’s wins have come from non-conference games. They have a losing record in conference even without his first 2 terrible years. They have a losing record overall, and are getting some huge breaks on their schedule this year. I have never said Clawson isn’t a good coach, but there’s no reason to act like Wake Forest is this supremely well coached team out of nowhere when that hasn’t been the case over the past 7 years.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

I totally get it. I remember being in the AD suite when the Big Guns were joking "When are we going to be done with this ****?" while Tech was running up the board and winning the game. The Money Guys HATED the TO even when Tech won.

The boys at Enron had a similar attitude. When it imploded, the book detailing the scandal was "The Smartest Guys in the Room". The "Money Guys" remind me of them.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Coaches recruit to their system and culture.

Coaches that recruit successfully, run reasonable systems, establish an effective culture, develop kids, build a good staff, etc. are successful.

Also it depends on how committed to winning the school is. Jimbo left FSU because they wouldn't make the necessary investment. Kirby went to UGA because they would. Saban went to Bama because they would. Saban was 6-6 first year at Bama with shelves stocked. Best possible coach at top 5 coaching destination with all the support you could ask for.

So clearly it takes time. How much time is reasonable? Dunno. GT ain't a state school where every kid grows up wanting to come. So recruiting improvement will take time (see 3 blue chip DTs committed in this year's class, 4-star OL, etc.) because it takes multi-year relationships to get those kids to come to a place like GT (generally). Then you have to get those kids to come in and coach 'em up for at least a year or two typically.

Do I see stuff I think could be a problem with Collins? Yeah. And I also see a lot of recruits who are not only high level guys but they also seem to be excelling/panning out and doing so when they are pretty young. That's a good sign.

Can't and won't tell you what to do but for me it makes sense to be patient. I like Thacker. Patenaude I'm not sure about for long term. On O I see things I like and don't like. Being strong in the trenches tends to make coordinators look really good/playcalling look great. For me as long as we keep bringing in good talent and they look like they are developing and coaching seems not obviously bad (not able to fix stuff, losing lockeroom, beating self too much, etc.) I am apt to be patient. IMO at a school like GT it could really pay off.

My only concern about this is that 3 years is plenty of time to show at least incremental improvement on the field. If there has been any, it has escaped this casual observer for the most part. Not that it matters because Coach Collins, for better or worse, is here for at least 2 or 3 more years. Plenty of time to have a turnaround season.

 

[Ibeeballin]

There are two teams in the top 5 right now that aren't in the top 40 in 247s talent rankings. Their coaches must be doing something right.

So they are the exception not the rule but your own admission

 

[Richard7125]

My only concern about this is that 3 years is plenty of time to show at least incremental improvement on the field. If there has been any, it has escaped this casual observer for the most part. Not that it matters because Coach Collins, for better or worse, is here for at least 2 or 3 more years. Plenty of time to have a turnaround season.

I've seen improvement. The end results aren't there yet, but I've seen improvement. Granted, I've been totally disgusted too.

 

[ibeattetris]

So they are the exception not the rule but your own admission

Looks like recruiting and ranking are't extremely correlated at this moment.

poll	rank	school	recruiting_rank
AP Top 25	1	Alabama	1
AP Top 25	2	Georgia	3
AP Top 25	3	Iowa	23
AP Top 25	4	Penn State	21
AP Top 25	5	Cincinnati	42
AP Top 25	6	Oklahoma	11
AP Top 25	7	Ohio State	2
AP Top 25	8	Oregon	6
AP Top 25	9	Michigan	10
AP Top 25	10	BYU	71
AP Top 25	11	Michigan State	43
AP Top 25	12	Oklahoma State	39
AP Top 25	13	Arkansas	24
AP Top 25	14	Notre Dame	9
AP Top 25	15	Coastal Carolina	84
AP Top 25	16	Kentucky	32
AP Top 25	17	Ole Miss	18
AP Top 25	18	Auburn	30
AP Top 25	19	Wake Forest	66
AP Top 25	20	Florida	13
AP Top 25	21	Texas	17
AP Top 25	22	Arizona State	48
AP Top 25	23	NC State	34
AP Top 25	24	SMU	53
AP Top 25	25	San Diego State	62

 

[bobongo]

I mean, those records ranges from terrible to mediocre, don’t ya think? That’s 40-45, and even if you take out his first 2 years that’s still just 34-27 (.557) which is pretty mediocre and unremarkable. Wake has definitely used their non-conference games to beef up their records as well. Usually playing 3 gimme games and either UNC or Notre Dame as their 4 non-conference game. Since Clawson has been there Wake’s ACC record is 19-36. Take out his first 2 years it’s still just 17-22, and if you add their undefeated start from this year it’s 20-22.
What about those records isn’t mediocre or terrible? Over half of Wake’s wins have come from non-conference games. They have a losing record in conference even without his first 2 terrible years. They have a losing record overall, and are getting some huge breaks on their schedule this year. I have never said Clawson isn’t a good coach, but there’s no reason to act like Wake Forest is this supremely well coached team out of nowhere when that hasn’t been the case over the past 7 years.

Everything's relative. What is a great record at Wake is mediocre at Alabama. Some perspective:

Wake Forest all-time record: 470-665-33, .417 winning pct.

Starting with Clawson's third season: 39-27, .591 winning pct.

 

[JacketOff]

Everything's relative. What is a great record at Wake is mediocre at Alabama. Some perspective:

Wake Forest all-time record: 470-665-33, .417 winning pct.

Starting with Clawson's third season: 39-27, .591 winning pct.

Jim Grobe’s last 8 years at Wake: 51-50, 29-35 in the ACC (.453)

Removing Clawson’s first 2 years at Wake he was 17-22 (.435) in the ACC going into this season. And at this point in the season he is 20-22 (.476) in the ACC.

I literally have not said Clawson is a bad coach, especially for Wake’s standards. Everyone seems to be missing my original point:

I mean, he’s on par or even a little bit behind what Jim Grobe did there. He also has the added benefit of playing the worst stretch of Florida State football since the 70s. Along with playing a much easier non-conference slate than what Grobe did in the 2000s.

I just think it’s ridiculous that nobody was singing Clawson’s praises as being a great coach until this year, because there was no reason to. As I’ve said multiple times already, Wake is executing this year and have won every game on their schedule. But to date they have played one of the weakest schedules in the country, and their next 3 games aren’t exactly against powerhouses either. I’ve given Wake and Clawson credit for doing what they need to do this year, but I’m just tired of posters coming out of the woodwork singing the praises of a coach who has been mediocre for the past 5-7 years.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

So they are the exception not the rule but your own admission

The "rule" is that if you have exceptional recruiting, player development, preparation and game day coaching then having losing seasons become the exception. In this environment, none of the teams below the top 25 or so including Tech have any chance of competing. College football has become the ultimate pyramid with a really narrow top and a very wide bottom. IIWII

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Jim Grobe’s last 8 years at Wake: 51-50, 29-35 in the ACC (.453)

Removing Clawson’s first 2 years at Wake he was 17-22 (.435) in the ACC going into this season. And at this point in the season he is 20-22 (.476) in the ACC.

I literally have not said Clawson is a bad coach, especially for Wake’s standards. Everyone seems to be missing my original point:

I just think it’s ridiculous that nobody was singing Clawson’s praises as being a great coach until this year, because there was no reason to. As I’ve said multiple times already, Wake is executing this year and have won every game on their schedule. But to date they have played one of the weakest schedules in the country, and their next 3 games aren’t exactly against powerhouses either. I’ve given Wake and Clawson credit for doing what they need to do this year, but I’m just tired of posters coming out of the woodwork singing the praises of a coach who has been mediocre for the past 5-7 years.

True, but mediocre for Wake is actually pretty decent. They are one team that has managed to overcome some significant challenges as being historically the doormat of the ACC.

 

[slugboy]

Looks like recruiting and ranking are't extremely correlated at this moment.

poll	rank	school	recruiting_rank
AP Top 25	1	Alabama	1
AP Top 25	2	Georgia	3
AP Top 25	3	Iowa	23
AP Top 25	4	Penn State	21
AP Top 25	5	Cincinnati	42
AP Top 25	6	Oklahoma	11
AP Top 25	7	Ohio State	2
AP Top 25	8	Oregon	6
AP Top 25	9	Michigan	10
AP Top 25	10	BYU	71
AP Top 25	11	Michigan State	43
AP Top 25	12	Oklahoma State	39
AP Top 25	13	Arkansas	24
AP Top 25	14	Notre Dame	9
AP Top 25	15	Coastal Carolina	84
AP Top 25	16	Kentucky	32
AP Top 25	17	Ole Miss	18
AP Top 25	18	Auburn	30
AP Top 25	19	Wake Forest	66
AP Top 25	20	Florida	13
AP Top 25	21	Texas	17
AP Top 25	22	Arizona State	48
AP Top 25	23	NC State	34
AP Top 25	24	SMU	53
AP Top 25	25	San Diego State	62

I’m curious how it compares to the 4 or 5 year average recruiting ranking, and also to the AA spend and revenue.

There are a few “we don’t spend much or get the 5* recruits” schools in there, for sure

 

[ibeattetris]

I’m curious how it compares to the 4 or 5 year average recruiting ranking, and also to the AA spend and revenue.

There are a few “we don’t spend much or get the 5* recruits” schools in there, for sure

@BCJacket did the analysis on how much schools spend vs where they rank, and it was strongly correlated.

I would assume rankings would be closer to their recruiting mean as you go over time, but I haven't looked at it. I can try to run a query on average end of season rank vs average recruit rankings from 2016-2020 and see how it compares. Will be later tonight though.

Edit: nvm his post was related to how spending and other factors affects recruiting https://gtswarm.com/threads/how-should-tech-do-in-recruiting-rank-analysis.16594/post-504793

 

[Backstreetbuzz]

I’ll go with Jimmy’s and Joe’s over Xs and Os. I think CPJs early years versus later years show this. He did not forget how to coach.

You can learn to coach, you have to be born to recruit.

 

[slugboy]

I didn’t examine the underlying model, but this looks pretty reasonable (for a 2-minute read). It figures that about 36% of “variation in the Sagarin rating” is explained by the 247 composite score of the roster.
I’m also not sure why they weakly-worded the conclusion. It seems like recruiting might be one of the largest factors, if not the largest, but a minority of the whole.

Why Football Recruiting Rankings Matter

By examining 17 years of recruiting rankings for college football programs, researches have determined that recruiting rankings are predictive of team success.

athleticdirectoru.com