Recruiting Momentum

[IronJacket7]

Not at all.

We did a lot that hurt recruiting.

- We fired out DC (Wommack)
- We lost our DL Coach and Recruiting Coordinator in Giff Smith
- We changed from a 4-3 to a 3-4
- Followed our 10 win year with a 6-7 year..which really killed the momentum
- Slapped by the NCAA a year later

All great points.

 

[Em_Jae20]

Call me crazy, but I do think Auburn's success could help us with recruiting. At the least its one less team the can negative recruiting using our offense as the topic

 

[Scubapro]

Puke is a story just because they were bad for soooo long. They will be lucky to be above 500 next year and that is being generous.
We could have capitalized on the success from 2008 and 09 but PJ was still in his probationary period with the hill. Meaning he could only recruit 1 or 2 exceptions a year. This is the problem. Also keep in mind if PJ was to get canned then the next coach will not be allowed to recruit exceptions until at least 4-5 years into his tenure.

 

[Longestday]

I don't think Duke is all that great, but I think they can have a decent year. Look at who they play in cross division this year. Look at their out of conference games. Most the in conferences games have new opposing QBs too.

The big difference is no uga and no Clemson. Those two wins become automatic losses for them.

I think they can get 6-8 wins in 2014.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Puke is a story just because they were bad for soooo long. They will be lucky to be above 500 next year and that is being generous.
We could have capitalized on the success from 2008 and 09 but PJ was still in his probationary period with the hill. Meaning he could only recruit 1 or 2 exceptions a year. This is the problem. Also keep in mind if PJ was to get canned then the next coach will not be allowed to recruit exceptions until at least 4-5 years into his tenure.

I remember there was an article several months ago in which CPJ was quoted as saying something like "I never used all the exceptions I was allowed."

I don't think exceptions are that big of deal since the players still need to pass their classes. I think it's the fear of flunking out that may be a bigger impact in keeping some players from committing to GT.

Finally, I think CPJ has made great strides in recruiting, defense and special teams. Now he just needs to win more games to get the enthusiasm for the program higher. I really hope he does because most replacements (other than Roof) would take a while to figure GT out.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

But anyway, a few years ago I got to wondering how much a good season affected recruiting the next year. Turns out there is about a 40% correlation. Sounds pretty good?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

But I also looked at how teams past performance was an indicator of how well they would do the next year. Turns out if you take the four previous years power ranking, there is about a 38% correlation to how a team will do the next year.

So probably it is the team's longer term reputation and program that matter most for recruiting. That's why I usually say we need to get better for a few years to see recruiting really pick up for the 4 / 5 stars. This year Eric has made me hopeful that we are getting the right players for what we need in our system and at GT. I don't expect to be top 10, but making a run at top 20 for the next couple years would be a good start!

 

[AE 87]

@GTNavyNuke
I think you want to correlate some kind of recruiting ranking delta not raw recruiting ranking.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

@GTNavyNuke
I think you want to correlate some kind of recruiting ranking delta not raw recruiting ranking.

Not really. I scratched the itch I had to see if there was much to performance affecting recruiting. Again, there seems to be some help but it's mostly continuation of a program's success.

If I were to do a delta analysis, (delta = (recruiting)-(performance))? There is so much noise in the data that it's hard to draw definitive conclusions. And taking differences / derivatives seems to just be teasing the data more.

An example of noise is our 2007 class where we hadn't performed that well up to that point? But once you get a really good rep (like Stanford has recently acquired), it really helps.

 

[jayparr]

But anyway, a few years ago I got to wondering how much a good season affected recruiting the next year. Turns out there is about a 40% correlation. Sounds pretty good?

good grief!!!

 

[AE 87]

Not really. I scratched the itch I had to see if there was much to performance affecting recruiting. Again, there seems to be some help but it's mostly continuation of a program's success.

If I were to do a delta analysis, (delta = (recruiting)-(performance))? There is so much noise in the data that it's hard to draw definitive conclusions. And taking differences / derivatives seems to just be teasing the data more.

An example of noise is our 2007 class where we hadn't performed that well up to that point? But once you get a really good rep (like Stanford has recently acquired), it really helps.

I meant correlation of performance ranking to delta of recruiting ranking, ie tracking change in recruiting ranking from one year to the next.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I meant correlation of performance ranking to delta of recruiting ranking, ie tracking change in recruiting ranking from one year to the next.

Thanks, that makes sense. I had already kind of looked at that for GT only. Here's GT since 2006, notice that it was two years after the 2007 recruiting class that we had our best year ....... but the rest is noise ....... as others have noted, that 2013 recruiting class being so small may come back to bite us hard ..........

To try to get rid of some of the noise, I looked at the 4 year recruiting average to performance and got this not so encouraging of picture (again it's the 2013 class affecting the average):

 

[Scubapro]

I remember there was an article several months ago in which CPJ was quoted as saying something like "I never used all the exceptions I was allowed."

I don't think exceptions are that big of deal since the players still need to pass their classes. I think it's the fear of flunking out that may be a bigger impact in keeping some players from committing to GT.

Finally, I think CPJ has made great strides in recruiting, defense and special teams. Now he just needs to win more games to get the enthusiasm for the program higher. I really hope he does because most replacements (other than Roof) would take a while to figure GT out.

I understand what you are saying...I dont think that PJ didnt use the exceptions because he didnt want to... but because he had to focus on one or two players that would have been exceptions and they didnt commit to us.
I also think there are plenty of kids that can cut the course work but cant get past the admissions.
You can draw the graphs and try to make statistical correlations but the only one that i think is relevant is that Gaily was allowed to recruit who he wanted after year 5 and he had good results in recruiting once that happened.
Same with PJ...I am willing to bet that the players he gets in the next 3 years will do very well. The problem with the Hill and this strategy is that by year 5 ...if a coach hasnt beaten the mutts 2 or 3 times... then he has worn out his welcome and the fans are ready to show him the door.

 

[Yaller Jacket]

Thanks for the excellent analysis!

Thanks, that makes sense. I had already kind of looked at that for GT only. Here's GT since 2006, notice that it was two years after the 2007 recruiting class that we had our best year ....... but the rest is noise ....... as others have noted, that 2013 recruiting class being so small may come back to bite us hard ..........

To try to get rid of some of the noise, I looked at the 4 year recruiting average to performance and got this not so encouraging of picture (again it's the 2013 class affecting the average):